09/20/2010 - Packet k i
Completeness Review
for Boards) Commissions
and Committee Records
CITY OF TIGARD
Planning Commission
Name of Board, Commission or Committee
oS -
0-0-- (.o
Date of Meeting
I have verified these documents are a complete copy of the official record.
Doreen Laughlin
Print Name •
•
Arr.,.I
Signature
8-17-11
Date
" City of Tigard
E d
Planning Commission Agenda
TIGARD
MEETING DATE: September 20, 2010; 7:00 p.m.
MEETING LOCATION: City of Tigard—Town Hall
13125 SW Hall Blvd.,Tigard, OR 97223
1. CALL TO ORDER 7:00 p.m.
2. ROLL CALL 7:00 p.m.
3. COMMUNICATIONS—7:02 p.m.
4. CONSIDER MINUTES 7:04 p.m.
5. WORKSHOP 7:05 p.m.- ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS COMMITTEE MEETING
6. BRIEFING 8:05 p.m.-URBAN FORESTRY CODE REVISIONS
7. BRIEFING 8:20 p.m.- SW CORRIDOR PLANNING
8. OTHER BUSINESS—8:35 p.m.
9. ADJOURNMENT— 8:40 p.m.
PLANNING COMMISSION AGENDA— SEPTEMBER 20, 2010
City of Tigard I 13125 SW Hall Blvd.,Tigard,OR 97223 I 503-639-4171 I www.tigard-or.gov I Page 1 of1
Mil
City of Tigard
TIGARD Memorandum
To: President Dave Walsh and Planning Commission Members
From: Darren Wyss, Senior Planner
Re: Economic Opportunities Analysis Advisory Committee
Date: September 13, 2010
At the September 20th meeting, the Planning Commission will act in its role as the Economic
Opportunities Analysis Advisory Committee. The Commission will have the opportunity to discuss
and provide feedback on the following materials:
• Draft Stakeholder Interview Summary (Attachment 1)
• Trends Analysis (Attachment 2)
• Buildable Lands Inventory and Redevelopment Potential (Attachment 3)
Kirstin Greene,Managing Principal for Cogan Owens Cogan, and Todd Chase, Senior Project
Manager/Economist for the FCS Group,will join us for the discussion.
The discussion of Attachment 1 will focus on how the comments align with current City efforts and
other potential strategies/policies the City may wish to explore. Keep this in mind when reviewing
the information. The Trends Analysis contains a large amount of data that paints a very good
picture of current City conditions and the potential for the future. The consultant team will focus
the discussion on the most important information, based on their experience, the Commission will
want to consider during the remainder of the project. Attachment 3 shows the amount of available
commercial,industrial, and mixed-use zoned lands in the City. The redevelopment potential of
properties based on the improvement to land value ratio is also included in Attachment 3. This
ratio has historically been used as an indicator of a property's likelihood to redevelop. The
discussion will focus on the relationship between the buildable lands and redevelopment potential
data with the information included in the Trends Analysis. The data from Attachment 3 will get
incorporated into the Trends Analysis.
The next meeting of the Economic Opportunities Analysis Advisory Committee (November 1st)
will be focused on reviewing the products from Tasks 3 and 4.
As always,if you have any questions that you would like to discuss before the workshop, please
feel free to contact me at darren@tigard-or.gov or 503-718-2442.
I:\LRPLN\Planning Commission\2010 PC Packets\9-20-10 WS-UFCR&SW Corridor Planning briefings-EOA Advisory Corn.Mtg\Records
Division Packet\2-Economic Opportunities Analysis Material\A-9-20-10 EOA AdvisComm Memo.doc
September 10, 2010
City of Tigard
Goal 9 Update: Economic Opportunities Analysis
Draft Interview Summary
In support of the City of Tigard's statewide planning Goal 9 Economic Opportunity Analysis,
consulting staff interviewed twelve business leaders,employers and economic experts to gather
perspectives on the City's current position and future economic opportunities. Summary of
interview responses are included after each question,shown in italics. The list of respondents is
included at the end of the summary.
1. What is Tigard's primary market advantage within the state and region with regard to attracting
population and jobs? What do you feel are its greatest assets?
Stakeholders consistently reported that Tigard's location is its primary asset,particularly its
proximity to I-5 and other major transportation corridors such as Highway 217 and Highway
99W. Other factors frequently cited included Tigard's position relative to Portland, an educated,
affluent population,and open spaces.Four respondents mentioned that the size of Tigard and its
suburban setting are attractive. Other named assets include the variety of housing options,
diversity of office and industrial buildings and availability of land.
2. I'm going to read you a list of seven (7)items. From the list,please identify Tigard's primary strengths
as a place to do business.
The list below is organized in order of frequency of response,shown in parentheses.
• Proximity to I-5 and other transportation corridors (11)
• Quality of life (10)
• Available, skilled workforce (10)
• Adequate public infrastructure (transportation,utilities,etc.) (5)
• Access to local markets and customers (5)
• General business climate (4)
• Interaction with firms in the same and/or related industries (2)
3. (Optional-for employers) Do you have plans to maintain or expand your business in Tigard? If not,
will you relocate within the region or elsewhere?Why or why not?
Most employers who were interviewed said they plan to maintain their current location but are
unlikely to expand. Two others said they hope to expand as the economy improves. Reasons for
not moving include preferred location, access, and property ownership. One employer said a
recent employee survey showed that most of their employees live near the business. One business
owner said they may relocate when the current lease expires and relocate to a more thriving
business district.
4. What geographic area(s) do you think best define(s) Tigard's competitive market region for commercial
office, retail and industrial development?
Most interviewees responded to this question by identifying areas in the City that are thriving or
successful employment districts. Four respondents felt that the Tigard Triangle is a particularly
competitive market area within the city, especially for industrial and retail uses. One person felt
strongly that the Triangle was not as competitive as the Hunziker area. Washington Square and
1 COGAN
OWENS
COGAN
September 10, 2010
the surrounding area were cited twice as being competitive for retail. Other areas mentioned by
one person included Oregon Business Park, PacCorp and the area between Highway 99W and
Scholls Ferry Road.
5. The City is interested in redevelopment in its downtown and along the Highway 99W corridor,
developing a mixed-use district in the triangle south of Highway 99W and north of Highway 217, and
adding more neighborhood commercial uses to meet local needs. Do you agree with these priorities?
Why or why not?Are there other areas or corridors the City should focus on?
Most respondents agreed with these priorities, though several cautioned against development
that would compound existing transportation problems (particularly along Highway 99W). There
was support for revitalizing downtown by adding new businesses and destinations; including
mixed uses, parks and housing that contribute to a unique identity for the City. There was also a
good deal of support expressed for improving the Triangle by adding services and diversifying
the types of businesses there with available land. Other ideas for focused efforts included the
Tiedeman/Greenburg area, the area north of Highway 99W and in the Oak Street or Locust Street
areas by Washington Square.
6. What can Tigard do locally to complement the regional and state economy?
Several respondents felt that improvements to the transportation network are important to
support the Tigard economy. This included improving conditions for vehicle traffic, providing
access to alternative transportation facilities such as bike lanes and light rail, and working with
regional agencies (e.g.,JPACT) to solve transportation problems. Two respondents suggested that
the City needs an economic development department and/or active business recruitment by the
mayor, city manager and economic development staff. Other ideas included lower taxes,
incentives to start a business or re-locate in Tigard, and grants for small businesses. Two
respondents recommended continuing to improve upon the current level of service and
responsiveness of City building and planning staff. One suggested retaining large industrial tracts
to attract potential employers.
7. What types of land and/or economic development actions or incentives are most needed in the City to
nurture job growth and private investment?
Respondents' most common suggestion was for the City to improve infrastructure -particularly
transportation. Others suggested lowering taxes and strategically reducing system development
charges (SDCs) for small businesses or other potential employers. Another suggested using
enterprise zones or urban renewal areas to capture future tax revenues. Two others emphasized
the importance of diversifying local businesses and professional services,particularly downtown.
8. What actions should be taken by the City to create a more balanced and sustainable community?
Interview respondents had several ideas about how to create a balanced and sustainable
community. These include diversifying the types of business in the city,adding more
transportation options and creating mixed-use districts. Two people said that the City needs to
focus its efforts and build a distinct identity and greater sense of community,including
supporting local business and adding more commercial services to residential areas. Others
suggested creating affordable housing and mixed-use districts near commuter rail and future light
rail. Two respondents noted that they thought the City is doing well with its current efforts.
2 COGAN
OWENS
COGAN
September 10, 2010
9. Along those lines, the City wishes to better balance jobs and housing. What types of housing do you
think are most needed?
While three interviewees responded that the current mix of housing is adequate, others suggested
the need for a more diverse housing stock. Specific needs include moderate to low-income
housing in or near downtown and commercial services,second-floor residential,condominiums
and small lot or zero lot line homes. A few respondents suggested siting mixed-income housing
near transit routes.
10. What business clusters exist or should exist in Tigard? What can the City do to build and strengthen
these clusters?
Most interview respondents said that Tigard does not have business clusters other than some
collection of general services and industry. One identified a cluster of finance and professional
services. Several felt that Tigard has a good diversity of businesses and does not need to build
clusters. Others suggested that the City could encourage clusters by recruiting a large company so
that supporting organizations follow,or by acquiring and consolidating large parcels to sell to a
major employer. One respondent recommended the City find a niche such as specialty medical,
technical or manufacturing that does not compete with existing retail establishments including
Washington Square.
11. What opportunities and challenges are there to expanding the traded sector in Tigard?What goods and
services could be produced locally rather than imported, and what could be exported?
Most respondents did not have an answer for this question. One suggested that all services are
imported and another suggested polling the manufacturing sector to identify existing goods and
services offered in Tigard. Another interviewee pointed out that there is a great deal of vacant
Class A and B office and industrial space,which is both a challenge and an opportunity for the
City to attract new industry and business.
12. Are there certain goods or services that you think are missing in the City of Tigard today?
Goods and services that interviewees said were missing from Tigard include downtown grocery
and retail,upscale restaurants and neighborhood commercial services. Others suggested that
Tigard needs light rail or bus rapid transit as well as more parks and trails. One recommended
that Tigard develop a unique identity based on neighborhood and housing design in order to
compete with the large surrounding retail and cited Sierra Madre, CA as a successful example.
13. Is there anything else you'd like to add?
Interview respondents offered the following closing comments:
• One person stated that he is frustrated with the lack of economic development activity on the
part of the City.
• Tigard has the opportunity to be a good example for a small city. Improve transportation
options and get people off the freeways while maintaining mobility in and between towns.
• The City needs to be efficient to support businesses. Be prepared for the economic upturn.
Keep an eye on the planning department and have a contingency plan to respond to an
increase in business activity (e.g.,hire contractors or new staff).
3 COGAN
OWENS
COGAN
September 10, 2010
• Be sure to"over-communicate" this and other City projects. Explore and use a variety of
communication media,including mail and social media.
• It is great that the City is doing this type of outreach and planning.
• Tigard's city council members toured Vancouver, BC a few years ago to look at urban
planning and transportation issues.The trip,hosted by Metro,was very beneficial in
generating ideas on how to meet these challenges.
List of Interviewees
1. Kirsten Alvares,Gerber Legendary Blades
2. Jonae Armstrong,Washington Square
3. Mark Ellsworth,Economic Revitalization Team
4. Donald Fox,Fox Chiropractic Clinic
5. Mike Marr,Tigard Central Business District
6. Debi Mollahan,Tigard Area Chamber of Commerce
7. Bonnie Nakashimada,George Fox University
8. Jonathan Schlueter,Westside Economic Alliance
9. George Specht,Specht Properties
10. Eric Sporre,PACTrust/Oregon Business Park
11. Mike Stevensen, B&B Printing
12. Eric Turner,GVA/Kidder Matthews
4 COGAN
OWENS
COGAN
DRAFT September 2, 2010
City of Tigard Economic Opportunities Analysis
Trends Analysis
Introduction
This memorandum provides a summary of the work conducted as part of Task 2 Trends
Analysis for the Tigard Economic Opportunities Analysis Goal 9 update. As part of this work
task, FCS GROUP performed the following activities:
Compiled and analyzed Metro demographic and employment forecasts, Oregon
Employment Department data, retail inflow/outflow trends, and commercial and
industrial leasing market activity.
Conducted an economic overview and real estate market analysis for new commercial
and industrial development in the Tigard Urban Service Boundary.
Evaluated near-term(1-year) and long-term(20-year) commercial and industrial
development potential for the Tigard Urban Service Boundary.
Prepared market supportable near-term and long-term land needs forecasts.
The preliminary findings for each of these work activities are summarized below.
Market Trends Analysis
FCS GROUP conducted an economic overview and real estate market analysis of office,
commercial retail, industrial, and public government space development for the Tigard Urban
Service Boundary. This analysis is focused on the expected level of demand for new
commercial, industrial, and public development and related gross buildable land needs over
the next 20 years (2011-2031).
The U.S. and Oregon economy are currently mired in the aftermath of a national economic
recession that began in December 2007. The current economic slowdown is now the longest
on record since the Great Depression,but some economic expansion is beginning to occur.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP is
the measure of value of all goods and services in the U.S.) increased at an annual rate of 3.7
percent during the first quarter of 2010, and increased by 2.4 percent during the second
quarter of 2010.
Consumers are still very cautious as unemployment rates remain high, and high levels of
home foreclosures continue. Oregon posted a year-over-year overall job loss of 16,000 jobs
between June 2009 and June 2010. At the same time, the state's unemployment rate
decreased to 10.5 percent in June 2010, compared to 11.6 percent in June 2009. It should be
noted that Oregon's employment levels have declined over the past year in spite of the drop
in unemployment rate. This trend likely reflects a decline in the number of people who are
actively seeking employment.
The U.S. and Oregon economy are now poised for a slow economic recovery. The July 2010
survey of the National Association of Business Economists reported expectations of slow
growth in GDP during the second half of 2010 in the U.S. as industry demand, profit
margins, employment, capital spending, and credit conditions improve.
Despite job losses,population levels continue to increase in both Oregon and Tigard due to
population migration patterns, increases in immigrant population levels, and natural
population increases. As indicated in Table 1, according to the Portland State University
Population Research Center,the population in Tigard increased to 47,460 residents in 2009,
up from 42,260 residents in 2000. The average annual growth rate (AAGR) for population in
Tigard was 1.3%between 2000 and 2009, which was below the level of population growth
recorded for Washington County, but above the Oregon and national growth rates.
Table 1. Population Trends, 2000 to 2009
Annual %
2000 2009 Change
2000-2009
Tigard 42,260 47,460 1.3%
Washington County 449,250 527,140 1.8%
Oregon 3,421,399 3,823,465 1.2%
USA 282,171,957 307,006,550 0.9%
Source: Portland State University, Population Research Center.
Metro (the regional government) has prepared forecasts for households and employment for
all local jurisdictions in the Metro Urban Growth Planning Area. The most recently adopted
Metro growth forecasts are referred to as the Metroscope Generation 2.3 model, and include
a forecast period from 2005 to 2030. FCS GROUP extrapolated the Metro forecasts to year
2035 using Metro's forecasted growth rate from the 2005-2030. While Metro is currently in
the process of preparing updated growth forecasts for the region, the Metroscope Generation
2.3 forecasts are being used for this EOA since they are the only set of officially adopted
forecasts at this time. As indicated in Table 2, the 2005 to 2035 forecasts anticipate that
Tigard will add approximately 3,185 households and 24,167 jobs over the 25-year period.
As noted in Table 2,the Metro job growth forecasts reflect the fact that Tigard is relatively
"jobs rich"with a positive ratio of 2.3 jobs per household,which is well above the tri-county
Metro regional average of 1.5 jobs per household. This is no surprise given Tigard's
concentration of regional employment centers, including Washington Square Mall as well as
the "Tigard Triangle" employment area near the confluence of I-5/Hwy. 217, as well as
pockets of industrial uses along the Hwy. 217 corridor.
Table 2 Metro Growth Forecasts for Households and Employment, 2005 to 2035
Households Proj. Proj.Avg.
Change Annual
2005-2035 Change(%)
2005 2030 2035
Tigard 17,724 20,341 20,909 3,185 0.6%
Clackamas County 140,415 241,821 269,594 129,179 2.2%
Multnomah County 288,926 372,913 392,439 103,513 1.0%
2
Washington County 189,925 272,998 293,545 103,620 1.5%
Total3 County Region 619,266 887,732 955,578 336,312 1.5%
Employment Proj. Avg.
2005 2030 2035 Change Annual
2005-2035 Change(%)
Tigard 41,308 60,637 65,475 24,167 1.5%
Clackamas County 145,581 251,286 280,273 134,692 2.2%
Multnomah County 493,671 705,721 758,005 264,334 1.4%
Washington County 269,660 450,970 499,820 230,160 2.1%
Total 3 County Region 908,912 1,407,977 1,538,098 629,186 1.8%
Proj.
Jobs Per Household Ratio Tigard Proj.Tigard
Capture of Capture of
Region Region Jobs
2005 2030 2035 HHs
Tigard 2.3 3.0 3.1 0.9% 3.8%
Clackamas County 1.0 1.0 1.0
Multnomah County 1.7 1.9 1.9
Washington County 1.4 1.7 1.7
Total 3 County Region 1.5 1.6 1.6
Source:Metro adopted housing and employment growth forecasts, 2007;Metroscope Gen. 2.3;
extrapolated to 2035 by FCS GROUP.
Washington Square Mall already functions as a regional commercial center that draws in
shoppers and patrons from over a 30-mile radius. With 1,458,734 square feet(sf) of retail and
entertainment space, the mall has five anchor stores including JC Penny, Macy's,Nordstrom,
Sears and Dick's Sporting Goods and 170 specialty stores. The mall added 28 new stores and
restaurants in 2005, along with a new multi-level parking structure.
In addition to large retail employers, Tigard is also home to several large high-tech
manufacturing, construction contractors, professional and business operations, as well as
state and local government operations. Table 3 provides a list of Tigard employers with more
than 250 jobs per establishment.
According to regional commercial and industrial real estate brokers, Tigard is a well-defined
submarket within the suburban Metro region. Tigard's office market is especially
competitive within the inner southwest portion of the region,with businesses considering
locations among several areas including Tigard, 217 Corridor/Beaverton, Kruse Way, Barbur
Blvd./Capitol Hwy., Tualatin and Wilsonville.
Recent office leasing market statistics indicate that office vacancy rates in the Metro region
have been increasing since 2008 as many businesses have shed jobs and scaled back on
required space needs. As indicated in Appendix A,negative absorption levels have been
3
occurring during the first six months of the year,particularly in Class A Office space, where
Tigard experienced a net loss of 13,097 sf during the first half of this year. As of July 1, 2010
Tigard had a total amount of Class A vacancy rates of 151,900 sf and another 66,000 sf in
vacant Class B and C space.
Tigard's Class B inventory has experienced positive absorption this year, with 12,800 sf of
net absorption. Since July 2010, Tigard has recorded several positive lease transactions,
which rank among the largest in the region, such as Bridgewell Resources (32,088 gsf),
Comsys into the Lincoln Center, State Farm Mutual Insurance (23,712 gsf) into Fanno Creek
Place, and CAN Insurance (17,843 gsf) into the Pacific Parkway Center.
Industrial leasing activity and vacancy rates were also significantly impacted by the recent
economic recession. As indicated in Appendix B, Tigard had approximately 170,000 sf of
vacant flex space (13.4%vacancy rate), and 339,000 sf of vacant warehouse space (7.7%
vacancy rate) as of July 1, 2010. Overall industrial lease rates in the Tigard submarket
averaged $7.68 per sf/year, and was among the highest in the Metro suburbs.
The City of Tigard and ODOT are taking steps to enhance the Downtown Tigard area to
make it a more viable place to live and work. At a cost of$4.5 million, the Oregon Route
99W project is being paid for by ODOT, Washington County and the City of Tigard. This
project is slated for completion by October 2010 and will include a third through-lane on the
highway, turn lanes on side streets, an extended median, wider sidewalks, new bike lanes,
improved pedestrian crossings, and wider corners for truck turning movements. This effort
will also enhance access into/from downtown Tigard.
Tigard's recently completed Downtown Plan is setting the regulatory stage and establishing a
new vision for renovating downtown. The future vision is intended to be a 50-year look at
how the downtown could change into a location for a new"lifestyle center"with a wide
range of housing and commercial opportunities that optimize natural features, such as Fanno
Creek and Fanno Creek Park, transportation facilities, such as Hwy. 99 and the Westside
Express Commuter Rail system, and even light rail or bus rapid transit service to/from
Portland are envisioned.
Table 3 Large Employers in Tigard with More Than 250 Employees, 2008
Firm Name Specialty Employment
Range
NORDSTROM Retail/Gen.Merchandise 500 or 999
TIGARD TUALATIN SCHOOL
DISTRICT Local Government 500 or 999
AEROTEK INC Temp. Emp. Agency 250-499
CITY OF TIGARD Local Government 250-499
COSTCO WHOLESALE
CORPORATION Retail/Gen. Merchandise 250-499
HEALTH NET HEALTH PLAN OF
OREGON Health Insurance Carrier 250-499
JCPENNEY Retail/Gen. Merchandise 250-499
MACYS Retail/Gen.Merchandise 250-499
PERFORMANCE CONTRACTING INC Industrial Bldg. 250-499
4
Contractors
Pension Fund
PERS HEADQUARTERS Management 250-499
REMEDY INTELLIGENT STAFFING
INC Temp. Emp. Agency 250-499
ROCKWELL COLLINS AEROSPACE& Mfg., Aeronautical & 250-499
ELEG Tech. Devices
STARPLEX CORP Temp. Emp. Agency 250-499
WESTERN PARTITIONS,INC. Bldg. Interior Contractors 250—499
Source: Oregon Employment Depaltnient.
To estimate future development potential for Tigard employment, FCS GROUP evaluated
the 10-year employment growth forecasts prepared by the Oregon Employment Department
for the Metro Tri-County region, and Metro growth forecasts for Tigard. As indicated in
Figure 1,the 10-year job growth forecasts for the Metro Tri-County Region portend a
positive trend towards job growth for all industry sectors, except federal government and the
manufacturing sector. The sectors that are expected to grow the fastest in the Tri-County
Metro Region include: educational and health services; professional and business services;
leisure and hospitality; local government; retail; and wholesale trade.
Figure 1 Non-Farm Employment, Tri-County Metro Region,2008-2018 Forecast
Local government 8,040
State government IM 1,890
Federal government (270)
Other services 2,210
Leisure and hospitality 10,590
Educational and health services 23,910
Professional and business services 19,780
Financial activities 2,730
Information I 800
Transportation,warehousing,and utilities • 1,520
Retail trade 6,670
Wholesale trade 4,960
Manufacturing (2,270) MI
Construction • 1,090
Natural resources and mining U 1,190
Source: Oregon Employment Department, includes Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas Counties.
5
To estimate future development potential for Tigard, FCS GROUP evaluated the 10-year
employment growth forecasts prepared by the Oregon Employment Department as well as
the extrapolated employment growth forecasts from Metro. As indicated in Appendix C, the
20-year job growth forecasts for Tigard indicate a more positive trend towards job growth for
all industry sectors. According to Metro (and FCS GROUP interpretation of Metro data), the
general sectors that are expected to grow the fastest in Tigard over the next 20 years include:
services (+10,092 jobs); retail (+3,810 jobs), industrial/other(+1,324 jobs), and government
(+882 jobs).
The job growth projections indicate that Tigard should expect to experience significant
redevelopment opportunities over the next 20-years. A range in employment forecasts is
provided to take into account current weak market conditions and national economic
expectations that expect lower-rates of job growth over the next several years. As indicated
in Table 4,there is a great level of uncertainly regarding potential job growth for Tigard in
light of weak regional and national employment growth predictions.
Table 4, Forecasted 20-Year Employment Growth and Building Space Needs in Tigard
Employment Growth Forecast Low Medium High
Retail Trades 2,286 3,048 3,810
Services 6,055 8,073 10,092
Industrial/Other* 794 1,059 1,324
Government* 529 706 882
Total 9,665 12,886 16,108
Supportable Building Square Feet in Tigard Low Medium High
Retail Trades 1,143,000 1,524,000 1,905,000
Services 2,422,000 3,229,333 4,036,667
Industrial/Other* 794,100 1,058,800 1,323,500
Government 211,760 282,347 352,933
Total 4,570,860 6,094,480 7,618,100
Notes:
See supporting analysis in Appendix C.
*Metro employment growth forecasts for"Other"were allocated to 60%industrial/other,and 40%government
by FCS GROUP.
Tigard is expected to add between 9,665 and 16,108 new jobs over the next 20 years. As
indicated in Appendix C, this amount of employment growth translates into approximately
4.57 to 7.62 million sf of new or renovated building sf(floor area). A large portion of this
demand will need to be met by redevelopment and utilization of vacant buildings since large
vacant undeveloped tracts of land are becoming increasingly scarce. It is estimated that
redevelopment and utilization of vacant buildings is expected to accommodate 70% of the
retail space demand, 50% of the service/office demand, 40% of the industrial demand, and
40% of the government facilities demand.
Table 5 shows the expected level of redevelopment and refill in Tigard over the next 20
years if redevelopment opportunities can be provided with adequate on-site parking and
priced at competitive lease/sales prices.
6
Table 5 Redevelopment and Refill Assumptions (2011 to 2031)
Industry Square Feet
Retail and Entertainment 800,000 to 1,300,000
Professional and Personal Services 1,200,000 to 2,000,000
Light Industrial/Flex 317,000 to 529,000
Government 84,000 to 141,000
After accounting for these levels of redevelopment activity, the amount of vacant land
demand in Tigard for employment uses over the next 20-years is expected to range from
238.6 to 397.7 acres, Preliminary estimates for vacant lands needs in Tigard by general
building type are provided in Table 6, and supporting assumptions are reflected in Table 7
and Appendix D.
Table 6 Preliminary Forecast; 20-Year Tigard Vacant Land Needs for Employment
(gross acres)
General Use Type Low Medium High
Retail Trades 41.1 54.9 68.6
Services 114.2 152.2 190.3
Industrial 69.9 93.2 116.5
Government 13.4 17.9 22.4
Total 238.6 318.2 397.7
Table 7 Supporting Vacant Land and Development Assumptions
Jobs Needing Bldg. SF Gross:Net
Vacant Land 1 per Job 2 FAR 2 Land Need3
Retail Trades 30% 500 0.22 1.15
Services 50% 400 0.28 1.15
Industrial/Other* 60% 1,000 0.18 1.15
Government 60% 400 0.25 1.15
Notes:
1/Adjusts for building refill& vacancy allowances.
2/Building density derived from Metro UGR assumptions.
3/Allowances take into account 15%allocation of gross land area for
public/utility easements.
To help validate these assumptions, FCS GROUP conducted an additional analysis of retail
sales inflow/outflow within Tigard. The results are provided in Appendix E, and generally
indicate that the amount of local retail trade in Tigard over the next 20 years could support an
additional 1.4 million sf of redevelopment or new development activity, even if current high
levels of retail sales inflow were cut by 50%. Hence, it appears that the low or medium
growth forecasts seem to be a better match with respect to the market potential for the Tigard
area.
Draft Employment Land Needs Findings and Next Steps
The actual amount and timing of new development will of course vary from year to year. The
wide range in development forecasts reflects current uncertainty regarding the region's
ability to retain and attract major employers, the City's desire to stimulate redevelopment in
downtown, and limited ability to accommodate new commercial and industrial development
on vacant lands.
These preliminary employment growth forecasts and resulting land needs will be refined
following review and feedback from the City, and when a more accurate understanding of the
vacant land supply is available.
8
Appendix A- Office Leasing Activity Summary, Mid-Year Report
OFFICE Leasing Activity,Mid-Year 2010(as of June 30,2010)
Class A Market Statistics Mid-Year 2010
Existing Inventory Vacancy YTD Net YTD Under Const Quoted
Market #Builds Total RBA Total SF Vac% Absorbtion Deliveries SF Rates
Central Business District 41 11,389,435 1,412,066 12.4% (135,590) 368,800 62,200 $24.42
Suburban 141 17,234,745 2,225,626 12.9% (130,126) - - $23.74
Tigard 6 509,087 151,931 29.8% (13,097) - - $23.93
217 Corridor/Beaverton 12 1,142,430 303,750 26.6% (15,550) - - $21.77
Kruse Way 19 1,961,855 495,615 25.3% (26,228) - - $26.05
Barbur Blvd/Capitol Hwy - - - - - - $0.00
Tulalatin 4 361,270 154,503 42.8% 5,604 - - $24.31
Wilsonville 4 325,501 55,071 16.9% - - - $24.77
Total 182 28,624,180 3,637,692 12.7%P. (265,716)' 368,800 62,200 r $24.01
Class B Market Statistics Mid-Year 2010
Existing Inventory Vacancy YTD Net YTD Under Const Quoted
Market #Builds Total RBA Total SF Vac% Absorbtion Deliveries SF Rates
Central Business District 130 9,423,902 927,523 9.8% 61,787 - - $20.18
Suburban 1,155 30,095,314 4,345,461 14.4% (62,639) 14,000 268,854 $17.82
Tigard 83 1,979,955 277,469 14.0% 12,806 - - $20.88
217 Corridor/Beaverton 72 1,719,571 314,759 18.3% 5,148 - - $16.40
Kruse Way 26 728,262 93,241 12.8% (14,059) - - $20.76
Barbur Blvd/Capitol Hwy 42 890,672 121,398 13.6% 2,337 - - $16.79
Tulalatin 30 704,815 105,798 15.0% (7,289) - - $19.36
Wilsonville 17 622,051 30,169 4.8% (10,369) - - $16.71
Total 1,285 39,519,216 5,272,984 13.3%� (852) 14,000 268,854 $18.38
Class C Market Statistics Mid-Year 2010
Existing Inventory Vacancy YTD Net YTD Under Const Quoted
Market #Builds Total RBA Total SF Vac% Absorbtion Deliveries SF Rates
Central Business District 177 4,093,913 489,486 12.0% 11,201 - - $17.49
Suburban 2,815 18,283,763 129,081 0.7% 68,665 - - $14.36
Tigard 97 662,182 66,493 10.0% (3,199) - - $15.60
217 Corridor/Beaverton 82 609,431 70,635 11.6% 1,202 - - $14.50
Kruse Way 19 133,044 2,452 1.8% - - - $18.00
Barbur Blvd/Capitol Hwy 120 846,865 99,822 11.8% (5,090) - - $15.60
Tulalatin 20 119,561 29,278 24.5% (5,598) - - $14.73
Wilsonville 21 103,496 2,681 2.6% 5,609 - - $17.21
Total 2,992 22,377,676 618,567 2.8% 79,866 - - $14.93
Class B and C Market Statistics Mid-Year 2010
Existing Inventory Vacancy YTD Net YTD Under Const Quoted
Market #Builds Total RBA Total SF Vac% Absorbtion Deliveries SF Rates
Central Business District 307 13,517,815 1,417,009 10.5% 72,988 - - $19.37
Suburban 3,970 48,379,077 4,474,542 9.2% 6,026 14,000 268,854 $16.51
Tigard 180 2,642,137 343,962 13.0% 9,607 - - $19.56
217 Corridor/Beaverton 154 2,329,002 385,394 16.5% 6,350 - - $15.90
Kruse Way 45 861,306 95,693 11.1% (14,059) - - $20.33
Barbur Blvd/Capitol Hwy 162 1,737,537 221,220 12.7% (2,753) - - $16.21
Tulalatin 50 824,376 135,076 16.4% (12,887) - - $18.69
Wilsonville 38 725,547 32,850 4.5% (4,760) - - $16.78
Total 4,277 61,896,892 5,891,551 9.5% 79,014 14,000 268,854 $17.14
Quoted Rates for Class B and C table are weighted average of individual B and C markets according to the total RBA inventory
Source:CoStar Office Report Mid-Year 2010;Capacity Commercial Group.
9
Appendix B Industrial Leasing Activity, Mid-Year 2010 Report
Flex Building Market Statistics Mid-Year 2010
Existing Inventory Vacancy YTD Net YTD Under Const Quoted
Market #Builds Total RBA Total SF Vac% Absorbtion Deliveries SF Rates
Central Business District 3 45,000 10,000 22.2% - - - $16.50
Suburban 741 18,956,577 2,268,793 12.0% (336,814) 70,020 - $10.23
Tigard 50 1,277,751 170,855 13.4% (12,799) - - $12.30
217 Corridor/Beaverton 87 2,204,502 419,258 19.0% (69,237) - - $11.77
Kruse Way 2 88,928 - 0.0% - - - $0.00
Barbur Blvd/Capitol Hwy 7 53,681 6,771 12.6% 5,100 - - $10.35
Tulalatin 14 430,840 23,229 5.4% (2,531) - - $7.54
Wilsonville 29 1,661,734 201,334 12.1% (18,316) 7,020 - $9.31
Total 744 19,001,577 2,278,793 12.0% (336,814) 70,020 - $10.24
Warehouse Building Market Statistics Mid-Year 2010
Existing Inventory Vacancy YTD Net YTD Under Const Quoted
Market #Builds Total RBA Total SF Vac% Absorbtion Deliveries SF Rates
Central Business District 41 1,616,833 141,090 8.7% (1,843) - - $5.78
Suburban 4,694 167,214,476 13,813,643 8.3% 91,337 119,723 415,000 $5.55
Tigard 119 4,394,617 339,683 7.7% 57,333 - - $6.38
217 Corridor/Beaverton 75 3,332,391 471,805 14.2% 31,770 - $6.30
Kruse Way 13 301,069 3,378 1.1% 10,240 - - $7.20
Barbur Blvd/Capitol Hwy 17 209,963 5,000 2.4% 8,000 - - $6.16
Tulalatin 221 8,453,141 675,494 8.0% (39,805) - - $5.20
Wilsonville 83 6,155,906 1,268,475 20.6% 47,351 - - $5.95
Total 4,735 168,831,309 13,954,733 • 8.3% 89,494 119,723 415,000 $5.55
Total Industrial Market Statistics Mid-Year 2010
Existing Inventory Vacancy YTD Net YTD Under Const Quoted
Market #Builds Total RBA Total SF Vac% Absorbtion Deliveries SF Rates
Central Business District 44 1,661,833 151,090 • 9.1% (1,843) - - $7.16
Suburban 5,435 186,171,053 16,082,436 • 8.6% (245,477) 189,743 415,000 $6.19
.
Tigard 169 5,672,368 510,538 9.0% 44,534 - - $7.68
217 Corridor/Beaverton 162 5,536,893 891,063 • 16.1% (37,467) - - $8.07
.
Kruse Way 15 389,997 3,378 0.9% 10,240 - - $7.20
Barbur Blvd/Capitol Hwy 24 263,644 11,771 • 4.5% 13,100 - - $8.01
Tulalatin 235 8,883,981 698,723 ▪ 7.9% (42,336) - - $5.29
Wilsonville 112 7,817,640 1,469,809 • 18.8% 29,035 7,020 - $6.72
Total 5,479 187,832,886 16,233,526 P 8.6% (247,320) 189,743 415,000 $6.20
Source:CoStar Office Report Mid-Year 2010;Capacity Commercial Group.
Appendix C Analysis of Employment and Space Needs
Tigard Employment Growth Forecast,2005-2035
Change
2005 Proj.2035 Jobs %
Retail Trades 9,854 14,426 4,572 46%
Services 11,372 23,482 12,110 106%
Industrial/Other' 12,049 13,637 1,588 13%
Government* 8,033 9,092 1,059 13%
Total I 41,308 1 60,637 I 19,3291 47%
Source:Metro adopted housing and employment growth forecasts,2007;Metroscope Gen.2.3;extrapolated to 2035 by
FCS GROUP;assumes allocation of"Other"jobs at 60%industrial,and 40%government.
20,082 22,729
Proj.Tigard Net New Average Annual Employment Forecast(1 Year Forecast)
Low Medium High
Retail Trades 114 152 191
Services 303 404 505
Industrial/Other` 40 53_ 66
Government* 26 35 44
Total 483 6441 805
Proj.Tigard Net New 20-Year Employment Forecast
Low Medium High
Retail Trades 2,286 3,048 3,810
Services 6,055 ' 8,073 10,092
Industrial/Other* 794 1,059 1,324
Government* 529 706 882
Total I 9,6651 12,8861 16,108
Proj.Tigard New 20-Year Building Floor Area Space Needs Forecast
Jobs
Needing Gross:Net
Vacant Bldg.SF Land
Supportable Building Square Feet Low Medium High Land' per Job 2 FAR 2 Need3
Retail Trades 1,143,000 1,524,000 1,905,000 30% 500 0.22 1.15
Services 2,422,000 3,229,333 4,036,667 50% 400 0.28 1.15
Industrial/Other` 794,100_ 1,058,800 1,323,500 60% 1,000 0.18 1.15
Government 211,760 282,347 352,933 60% 400 0.25 1.15
Total 1 4,570,8601 6,094,4801 7,618,100i Notes:
1/Adjusts for building refill&vacancy allowances.
2/Building density derived from Metro UGR assumptions.
3/Allowances take into account land dedicated to
public/utility easements.
Proj.Tigard 20-Year Vacant Land Needs Forecast
Required Gross Buildable Acres Low Medium High
Retail Trades 41.1 54.9 68.6
Services 114.2 152.2 190.3
Industrial 69.9 93.2 116.5
Government 13.4 17.9 22.4
Total I 238.6 I 318.2 I 397.7 _
1 '
Appendix D Analysis of Retail Inflow/Outflow
Analysis of Retail Development Potential
Tigard Area
2010 to 2030
Est.2010 Population in City 48,100
Roj.2030 Population in Qty 62,278
Analysis of Effective Buying Income(EBI)
Est.2010 Per Capita Income 1/ $33,000
Roj.2030 Per Capita Income 1/ $36,462
Est.2010 Aggregate EBI(000) $1,587,300
Roj.2030 Aggregate EBI(000) $2,270,749
Change in Aggregate EBI(000) $683,449
Future 2030 Supportable Retail Development
Analysis of Existing&Future Retail Sales Potential
2010 2030
Retail Retail
Distributi Buying Buying Total
on of Power Power Change Sales Sales Support Supportable
Local from from in Retail Attributed Attibuted able Sq.Ft.of New
Income by Local Local Buying to Local to Retail Retail Retail
Store Residents Residents Power Residents Inflow Sales Development
Store Group Group 2/ (000)2/ (000)2/ (000) (000) (000)4/ (000) 5/
Food Stores 8.3% $131,746 $188,472 $56,726 $51,054 $12,763 $63,817 236,000
Eating&Drinking 5.0% $79,365 $113,537 $34,172 $30,755 $13,181 $43,936 162,000
Gen.Merchandise 5.5% $87,302 $124,891 $37,590 $33,831 $27,680 $61,510 227,000
Furniture,Fixtures&Appliances 2.2% $34,921 $49,956 $15,036 $13,532 $11,072 $24,604 91,000
Automotive Services 9.6% $152,381 $217,992 $65,611 $52,489 $42,945 $95,434 352,000
Other/Misc. 11.3% $179,365 $256,595 $77,230 $54,061 $23,169 $77,230 285,000
Total 41.9% $665,079 $951,444 $286,365 $235,722 $130,810 $366,532 1,353,000
Notes:
1/Derived from US Census estimates;assumes.05%annual real income growth.
2/Store group sales allocations from U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis,Consumer Expendure Survey,Western United States.
3/Based upon employment estimates:assumes 500 sq.ft.per job,5%vacancy allowance,and avg.sales of$275/sq.ft.
4/Future retail inflow assumed to account for 30%to 45%of total retail sales.
5/Building area assumes$285/per sq.ft.annual sales,and 5%vacancy allowance.
Source:analysis byFCSGROUP.
12
Economic Opportunities Analysis- City of Tigard Buildable Lands Inventory (as of January 1, 2010)
Vacant Property Partially Vacant Property
< 1 acre 1 to 5 acres 5 to 10 acres > 10 acres < 1 acre 1 to 5 acres 5 to 10 acres > 10 acres
Lots Acres Lots Acres Lots Acres Lots Acres Lots Acres Lots Acres Lots Acres Lots Acres
C-C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C-G 12 3.68 3 8.98 2 16.42 0 0 7 3.13 3 5.05 0 0 0 0
C-N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C-P 6 21.18 1 3.11 0 0 0 0 1 0.51 1 3.08 0 0 0 0
MU-CBD 2 0.42 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.64 0 0 0 0 0 0
I-H 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
I-L 5 1.94 1 1.2 0 0 0 0 2 0.26 1 3.34 0 0 0 0
I-P 2 0.7 1 4.2 0 0 2 34.7 3 1.25 2 2.5 0 0 0 0
MUC 2 1.13 1 1.34 0 0 0 0 1 0.28 0 0 0 0 0 0
MUE 23 9.3 2 2.63 0 0 0 0 12 4.56 2 3.44 0 0 0 0
MUE-1 7 2.46 1 1.53 1 5.72 0 0 3 1.32 0 0 0 0 0 0
MUE-2 1 1.24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
IMUR-1 I 9 3.17 I 0 0 0 0 I 0 0 I 0 0 I 0 0 I 0 0 I 0 0
MUR-2 2 0.76 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 71 45.98 10 22.99 3 22.14 2 34.7 30 11.95 9 17.41 0 0 0 0
For purposes of this inventory,buildable lands were identified as property outside of Title 3 lands that are:
1. Fully vacant:undeveloped,privately-owned parcels
2. Partially vacant:developed,privately-owned parcels with 1/4 acre or more of the parcel vacant
Economic Opportunities Analysis
City of Tigard Redevelopment Potential (Improvement to Land Value)*
_ High (<0.33) Moderate (0.33 to 1.00) Low (> 1.00)
Lots Acres Lots Acres Lots Acres
C-C 0 0 0 0 4 8.46
C-G 8 3.4 13 6.76 158 254.97
C-N 0 0 1 0.19 2 2.82
C-P 11 3.82 17 10.89 35 33.56
MU-CBD 24 10.49 50 38.39 86 58.97
I-H 2 3.43 4 5.5 9 41.31
I-L 3 11.02 8 25.09 61 203.49
I-P 13 12.5 13 28.22 76 193.1
MUC 7 12.64 11 24.17 35 154.95
MUE 70 40.46 22 12.28 59 61.78
MUE-1 15 11.48 10 6.85 24 30.86
MUE-2 0 0 0 0 6 29.42
MUR-1 10 3.93 23 5.61 16 5.26
MUR-2 6 2.38 8 2.61 6 3.03
Total 169 115.55 180 166.56 577 1081.98
*Improvement to Land Value calculated from Washington County Tax Assessor data(Sept 2010)
*196 Properties contained a zero Improvement or Land Value and are not represented in the table
*Does not include government owned properties or properties found on the buildable lands inventory
II
" City of Tigard
TIGARD Memorandum
To: Members of the Planning Commission
From: Todd Prager,Associate Planner/Arborist
Re: Urban Forestry Code Revisions, Project Update
Date: September 7, 2010
Tigard City Council adopted the Urban Forest section of the Comprehensive Plan in 2008 and
accepted the Urban Forestry Master Plan (UFMP) in 2009 to help guide and inform an update
of the City's tree and urban forestry related code provisions.
The Urban Forestry Code Revisions project will address the Urban Forest section of the
Comprehensive Plan as recommended in the UFMP through a series of six thematic code
packages including 1) Hazard Trees, 2) Street Trees-Non-Development, 3) Use of Current
Mitigation Funds, 4) Development Code I (Tree Plan Requirements), 5) Development Code II
(Tree and Grove Preservation Incentives and Requirements), and 6) Non-Development Permits,
Besides Street Trees. These packages will be developed sequentially by staff under Technical and
Citizen Advisory Committee review through June 2011. On consensus by the Advisory
Committees, the proposed code amendments will be forwarded as a single package to the
Planning Commission after review by a panel of development and urban forestry experts.
Commission hearings will be scheduled for the second half of 2011 with City Council hearings
and adoption by year's end. Staff will involve the public throughout the process by
implementing the project's Public Involvement Plan which includes regularly updating the
project website, sending project updates to interested parties, and discussing the project with
community members at events such as the Farmer's Market and open houses. The schedule for
the various pieces of the Urban Forestry Code Revisions project is attached.
Only revisions to the Community Development Code will require Planning Commission review.
However, revisions to the Municipal Code will be provided to the Commission so the
Development Code revisions can be given context.
The code items currently under completion include defining and prohibiting hazard trees, and
refining the City's planting, maintenance, and removal standards and approval criteria for street
trees during non-development scenarios. Both of these items will require revisions to the
Municipal Code.
1
Staff and Winterbrook Planning are also continuing inventory work on tree groves based on
Council and Planning Commission input received on July 20, 2010. The inventory will be the
focus of an incentive based tree grove preservation program through the Goal 5 process. The
first public open house with affected tree grove property owners is scheduled for October 6,
2010. The tree grove portion of the project will require revisions to the Development Code.
More details on the Urban Forestry Code Revisions Project can be found on the project website
at http://www.tigard-or.gov/community/trees/code revision.asp.
ATTACHMENT: URBAN FORESTRY CODE REVISIONS, PROJECT TIMELINE
2
City of Tigard
Urban Forestry Code Revisions — Project Timeline
June '10 July '10 August '10 September'10 October'10 November '10 December '10 January'11 February '11
Project Kickoff
Cl,
Z
0
H Assessment and Collaboration
I I I
CC
W Draft Code Revisions
0
0
0
0 0 0 °°o° 0 0
Hazard Trees Hazard Trees Street Trees Use of Current Development Code I Development Code II
(Non-development) Mitigation Fund
Street Trees Development Code II Non-development
(Non-development) Use of Current Development Code I Tree Plan Incentives Permits
Mitigation Fund Tree Plan Requirements Tree Grove Preservation (Besides Street Trees)
Incentives/
Requirements
Exisitng Grove,GIS Review
W
0 Tree Grove Inventory
IX
07 I I
W ESEE Analysis Report
IIC
Draft Program
Z Project Kickoff
W
W
Assessment and Collaboration
0
Z
Draft Code Revisions
V
J
m
m
a-
1
KEY: Technical Advisory Committee Meeting Citizens Advisory Committee Meeting Planning Commission or Council Meeting • Tentative Citizens Advisory Committee Meeting
*Dates for Planning Commission and City Council meetings are subject to change.Please check the City's website for updates.
1
City of Tigard
Urban Forestry Code Revisions — Project Timeline
March '11 April '11 May '11 June '11 July '11 August '11 September '11 October '11 November '11
H
Z
0
N_
Peer Review
CC
Draft Code Revisions
G
0
V
Adoption Process
00 U 0 �O>
Non-development Comprehensive Comprehensive Planning Commission Planning Commission City Council City Council Hearing*
Permits Review of Review of Workshop* Hearing* Workshop*
(Besides Street Trees) Code Changes Code Changes
Comprehensive
Review of
Code Changes
W
0
CC
W
W
CC
F-
H
Z
W
2
W
0
z
Draft Code Revisions
V
Adoption Process
a
KEY: Technical Advisory Committee Meeting Citizens Advisory Committee Meeting Planning Commission or Council Meeting • Tentative Citizens Advisory Committee Meeting
*Dates for Planning Commission and City Council meetings are subject to change.Please check the City's website for updates.
2
7 1 " MEMORANDUM
T I GARD
TO: Tigard Planning Commission
FROM: Judith Gray, Senior Transportation Planner
RE: Update on Southwest Corridor Planning Activities
DATE: September 20, 2010
The City of Tigard is currently engaged in a regional coordinated plan being dubbed the
"Southwest Corridor Plan." The corridor plan is comprised of separate efforts by the cities
of Tigard, Tualatin, and Portland, which are focused on identifying land uses to support
future transit investments. Metro, ODOT, and TriMet are leading the efforts specifically
addressing transportation analyses, though each of the cities will play significant roles.
The figure below illustrates the individual plans that comprise the larger Southwest Corridor
Plan.
Portland "Barbur }
Concept Plan"
iiik
Metro, ODOT, &
TriMet The
"Southwest SOUthwest Tigard "99W
Corridor Transit Land Use Plan"
Alternatives Corridor
Analysis"
°Iar
Metro, ODOT &
TriMet Tualatin "99W
"Southwest
Corridor
Corridor Planning"
Refinement
Plan"
• Tigard "99W Land Use Plan"—Tigard's land use plan happens to be the first project
getting started. This plan is funded by a state Transportation and Growth
Management (TGM) grant with the purpose of identifying conceptual land use plans
for future high capacity transit (HCT) station areas. Metro and the City of Tigard
were jointly awarded the grant. A consultant has been selected. The final scoping is
taking longer than expected. This is largely due to the complexity of coordinating the
multiple projects.
• Portland "Barbur Concept Plan" and Tualatin "99W Corridor Planning"—These will
be somewhat similar to Tigard's land use plan but with emphasis on local issues
• Metro, ODOT &TriMet "Southwest Corridor Refinement Plan"—This project
comes from the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP),which was just adopted. The
purpose of the Corridor Refinement Plan is to take a broad view of mobility along
the "corridor" that includes I-5 and Highway 99W between Portland and Sherwood.
This is a significant undertaking,which will include the network of freeways and
highways, and "explicitly including parallel networks of arterial streets, sidewalks,
regional bicycle and pedestrian facilities, high capacity transit, and other transit
service. In addition, the corridor refinement plan would consider the development
and function of land uses along the corridor."
o An important output of the SW Corridor Refinement Plan is the development
of Alternative Mobility Standards for specified locations on state highways.
The current mobility standards often limit the capacity for future development
to levels that may not support transit investments. The Refinement Plan
approach is intended as a coordinating mechanism between land use and
transportation planning.
• Southwest Corridor Transit Alternatives Analysis—The Alternatives Analysis (AA)
will include an evaluation of alternative alignments and modes for HCT. This will
incorporate the HCT station area concepts identified in the individual city land use
plans.
The Schedule, Scope and Budget Concept for the SW Corridor Plan (attached on the next
page) illustrates the relative timing of these projects. The timeline shows that the land uses
plans are expected to be completed in 2012. A critical milestone in the planning work is
anticipated in early 2013 with the adoption of the Corridor Refinement Plan. This will be
followed by still more detailed analysis as part of the National Environmental Policy Act
(NEPA) process.
Southwest Corridor Plan
Schedule, Scope and Budget Concept (7/9/10) X
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
LAND USE Tualatin,Tigard&Portland&...
Transportation and Corridor Refinement
--a 'Participation and decision-making by all
TPAC 7/30
JPACT 8/12
Multimodal Alternatives Analysis
plementation Plan
i .— (Funding/Phasing)
♦ Adopt Corridor Refinement Plan—determine multimodal
needs,planned functions and general locations;amend
regional and local plans as needed
Current Planning Efforts DEIS Documentation ♦ HCT LPA
New Starts
HCT PE
HCT
FEIS/ROD
HCT Final
Design
♦ FFGA
Constructs•
Vision for Future Planning Efforts HCTa • • her
Earliest Open?
Corridor Refinement and Coordinated Components: $8-10 M To HCT LPA:$13-14 M To HCT PE Completion: $60M Design/Construction: $???
•Land Use Aspirations •Narrow Alternatives •New Starts/Local/Regional/ •Complete Final Design
•Corridor Refinement Plan •Finish DEIS State Funding •Construction and Start Up
•Multimodal Alternatives •PE
CITY OF TIGARD
PLANNING COMMISSION
Meeting Minutes
September 20, 2010
1. CALL TO ORDER
President Walsh called the meeting to order at 7:05 pm. The meeting was held in the Tigard Civic
Center,Town Hall, at 13125 SW Hall Blvd.
2. ROLL CALL
Present: Commissioner Anderson;
Commissioner Doherty;
Commissioner Hasman;
Commissioner Muldoon;
Commissioner Ryan;
Commissioner Schmidt;
Alternate Commissioner Shavey;
Vice President Vermilyea; and
President Walsh.
Absent: Commissioner Gaschke
Staff Present: Judith Gray, Senior Transportation Planner;
Susan Hartnett, Assistant Community Development Director;
Doreen Laughlin, Sr. Administrative Specialist;
Todd Prager, Associate Planner/Arborist; and
Darren Wyss, Senior Planner
Also Present: Todd Chase, Sr. Project Manager/Economist for the FCS Group
Kirstin Greene, Managing Principal for Cogan Owens Cogan
3. COMMUNICATIONS
President Walsh informed the commission that Commissioner Gaschke had resigned from the
commission as he would be pursuing an overseas business venture [a one year contract out of the
country.] He noted the Mayor had sent Commissioner Gaschke a personal thank you letter for
the donation of his time, experience, and effort serving on the commission.
There were several people in the audience, and President Walsh asked them what it was that
brought them out. One of the audience members stated they were there because they were
concerned about the tree cutting that was beginning to take place on 72nd Street. Since this
topic was not on the agenda, Susan Hartnett,Assistant Community Development Director, asked
to briefly address the commissioners. She gave a quick update on the topic. She asked if the
commissioners had any questions. There were none. At this point, she offered to speak to the
1:\"MIN\Planning Commission\2010 PC Packets\9-20-10\VS-UPCR&SW Corridor Planning briefings-!OA Advisory Corn.Mtg\tpc 9-20-10 minutcs.doc
Page 1 of 6
audience interested in this topic in the hall outside of the meeting room so the commission could
continue with its scheduled agenda—which she did. The City Arborist,Todd Prager, also stepped
into the hall and was available for questions and comments from the group.
4. CONSIDER MEETING MINUTES
August 16th Meeting Minutes: President Walsh asked if there were any additions, deletions,
or corrections to the August 16th minutes; there being none, Walsh declared the minutes
approved as submitted.
5. WORKSHOP --ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS
COMMITTEE MEETING
Senior Planner, Darren Wyss, reminded the commission they were being asked to, at this time,
act in the capacity as the Economic Opportunities Analysis Advisory Committee. He
introduced the two consultants present: Kirsten Greene—Managing Principal with Cogan
Owens Cogan; and Todd Chase, Sr. Project Manager and Economist with the FCS Group. He
noted there were three things they wanted to discuss. The first is the draft stakeholder
interview summary; The Trends Analysis; and the Buildable Lands Inventory and
Redevelopment Potential.
Kirstin Greene went over the draft interview summary (Exhibit A). She let the
commissioners know that, because she had been on maternity leave, she had not personally
conducted any of the interviews. When she got to item #13, the "Is there anything else you'd
like to add?" question, she turned it over to Todd Chase, who had conducted the interviews.
He noted that there were far more strengths than weaknesses that were mentioned in the
interviews. The one thing he recalled was the lack of"urban form"in Tigard and the desire to
create more of a "there, there" in downtown and some of the employment centers so that
over time you'd have a clearly established employment district with a commercial center
people could walk to.
QUESTIONS FROM THE COMMISSIONERS
Following are some of the questions asked by the commissioners:.
When talking about general business climate, short of getting rid of fees, and that kind of
thing, were there any other ideas that were brought up as to what could make the business
climate better - whether design, or advertisement, or anything like that? Or was it just strictly
monetary? I don't think there's enough survey's to give you a statistically valid answer. I think we're asking
this question in the middle of kind of coming out of a recession, so people are naturally going to say - business
climate is just not as good as it should be, or it could be better. You hit on all the things they mentioned. They
said it'd be great if there were more incentives, and then the issue of design.. I heard it kind of indirectly as.
something that might be an issue but I don't think it was a real negative compared to the positives.
You talked about strengths; did you talk about the weaknesses? It was not asked;however, there are
far more strengths than weaknesses.
l\I,RPI,N\Planning Commission\2010 PC Packets\9-20-10 WS-UPCR&SW Corridor Planning briefings-MA Advisory Corn,Mtg\tpc 9-20-10 minutes.doc
Page 2 of 6
As you were speaking to people,what is the expectation [by them] of the City? Do people
think of the City as a resource for economic development assistance? It was a pool ofjust 12.
Some were familiar with the City efforts— some were not.
It was noted by one of the commissioners that a part of whatever recommendation comes out
of this has to be that eventually we have a full-time economic development person in this
community to drive the marketing efforts and also to try to drive some of the strategic
thinking about what kinds of businesses we want to have. He noted, "We need to recognize
that, in the long haul, we're competing with other communities, we are competing within our
own county for new industry, larger businesses, etc." The City of Sherwood did pursue that strategy
after we concluded our work with them and their economic opportunities analysis So you might "staff to staff'
-just talk to that y... Julia Hajduk, over there. They did hire Tom Nelson, a full-time Economic
Development Coordinator so, does it pencil?Does it pay?I'm not sure. Or is it a part of an FTE?But that's
certainly a part of whatyou can look at. Then also, working with the Oregon Employment and Oregon
Economic Community Development Dept as your partner— they can help do the rnarketingforyou as well.
There were some comments that the businesses, many phenomenal, on Main Street suffer
from lack of advertising on Pacific Highway as to what's down there. Among others, there's a
retail store, there's an excellent bakery that people don't know about. The thought is that some
signage advertising what is located on Main Street would be a good thing.
TRENDS ANALYSIS
Todd Chase then went through the preliminary findings of the Trends Analysis (Exhibit B).
The idea of a growth "virtual incubator"was brought forth (Clackamas County is testing it
now) as opposed to jumping in with a "hard bricks and mortar" operation, and see how that
goes for a year. Then see what kind of businesses are knocking on the door for a possible
bricks and mortar business. It was noted these types of things are a great way to grow
businesses locally.
Kirstin Greene asked a question: "The jobs ratio —the high jobs-to-housing ratio is pretty
enviable in the region... is there any feedback on that?" Vermilyea answered, `7 think it's good,
but my concern is not the ratio ofjobs- but the kinds ofjobs. There's quantity and then there's quality. We
have a lot of low-wage temporary,part-time jobs that are not "living wage"household jobs. It seems to me, as
we go forward, we'll obviously want a mix, but we ought to try to emphasize developing more high wage/`family
wage"jobs, as opposed to the minimum wage/retail type jobs."
Chase gave a summary and thanked the commissioners for their time.
Darren Wyss wrapped up the meeting detailing the next steps: "Todd Chase will refine the
Trends Analysis. The committee didn't have time to get to the Attachment 3 — the vacant
lands and the redevelopment potential. Chase will incorporate that information into the
Trends Analysis. That will shed light on the ability to attract large business versus supporting
what we have here. This is "task 2" in the project. Task 3, 4, & 5 are in progress right now so
I:\LRPLN\Planning Commission\2010 PC Packets\9-20-10 WS-UFCR&SW Corridor Planning briefings-LOA Advisory Com.idtg\Tie 9-20.10 minutes.doc
Page 3 of 6
when we come back to you on November 1st, we will have this refined as well as task 3, 4, & 5
information for you to look at during that meeting. That's when we'll get into the different
site needs and the sites that we currently have available to meet those needs."
6. BRIEFING—URBAN FORESTRY CODE REVISIONS
Todd Prager introduced himself as an Associate Planner and Arborist for the City. He
identified himself also as the Project Manager for the Urban Forestry Code Revisions project.
He said he wanted to bring the Commission up-to-speed on the project. He walked the
commissioners through his memo dated 9/7/10 (Exhibit C) and timeline (Exhibit D).
He explained the make-up of the Council appointed Urban Forestry Master Plan Code
Revisions committee, which contains a broad range of interests:
• Two Planning Commissioners
• Two Tree Board Members
• Two Members of the Parks & Recreation Advisory Board
• Two Developers (one, a selected representative for the Home Builders Association).
• One Certified Arborist
• One Natural Resource Advocate (Tualatin Riverkeepers Brian Wegener)
• One Citizen at-large Qohn Frewing)
To complement the Citizen Advisory Committee (CAC), staff has also established a Technical
Advisory Committee (TAC). This committee consists of members of multiple City
departments as well as people from outside agencies that the City interacts with on Urban
Forestry issues.
The purpose of both committees is to provide feedback to staff as staff is writing the code
revisions. The idea is to reflect community expectations while, at the same time, making sure
the revisions are technically sound.
Prior to the adoption process,in May of 2011 they will have the full package of revisions that
the committees have worked on reviewed by a third-party panel of experts. This will take
place before it gets to the Planning Commission and Council so a critical view can be in place,
any necessary changes can be made, and the whole package can be tied together prior to going
before the Planning Commission again.
Prager directed their attention to the third bar on the timeline, the "Tree Grove" protection
program. He noted this is another major element of the project. He said Council had
approved the hiring of a Planning Consultant earlier this year, and the City received direction
through a joint meeting with the Planning Commission and Council on the types of tree
groves the Commissioners and Councilors are interested in seeing inventoried. The consultant
is presently in the field and has been there for a few weeks inventorying groves of two acres or
more within the City. This portion of the plan should wrap up pretty quickly. An open house
is scheduled for October 6th to get feedback from the people who had been identified as
having a tree grove (or portion of a tree grove) on their property - the idea being to
understand the types of regulations and incentives they'd like to see for the Tree Grove
I:\LRPLN\Planning Commission\2010 l'C Packets\9.20-10 WS-UIaCR&SW Corridor Planning briefings-11OA Advisory Corn.bftg\tire 9-20-10 minutes.doc
Page 4 of 6
Protection program. After the open house, using the feedback taken from it, staff will work
with the CAC and TAC to develop regulations and incentives for the Tree Grove portion of
the project. Prager noted those draft regulations will be incorporated into the Development
Code and the overall package of the Urban Forestry Code Revisions.
Once the tree code regulations are developed, there will be an additional open house for the
tree grove property owners and the broader community— to get feedback on what they think
about the newly developed tree grove regulations. The idea being to get as much feedback as
possible from those involved before it comes before the Commission again next summer.
The final component of the project is the "Public Involvement" component. We would like
to have an enhanced level of public involvement in this project. Some of the built-in methods
are:
• A website which will be updated regularly as new things occur.
• A quarterly project newsletter (that has actually been sent out even more often than
quarterly, so far) to interested parties explaining what's going on with the projects, and
what's coming up.
• Regular email updates and targeted press releases to keep everyone "in the loop" as
much as possible.
• The incorporation of written and verbal comments into every Citizen Advisory
Committee meeting that has been held so the committee members can see what the
community wants and thinks.
• Two scheduled open houses for the tree grove portion of the project, specifically, and
one open house to coincide with Arbor Day later in the process — the latter open house
will take place close to just before the adoption process begins.
• Kids activities available at each open house in order to highlight that this is a "multi-
generational" project, and also to help keep the children busy so the adults can attend
the open house without being concerned about what their children are doing.
• Outreach to the public e.g. attending the Farmer's Market to explain the project and
answer questions.
• Regular check-ins with the bodies that are going to be adopting this (i.e. the Planning
Commission and City Council).
"The overall goal is to move this project through in large pieces on specific topics with the
CAC and TAC. As we go through the process, Community "buy-in" is something we're
looking for. Our goal is to present, by the time it gets to the Planning Commission and
Council, a proposal that is broadly supported by the community."
7. BRIEFING— SW CORRIDOR PLANNING
Judith Gray, Sr. Transportation Planner, distributed a memo dated 9-20-10,which included an
attachment, to the commissioners (Exhibit E). She advised the commissioners that her intent
was to give them an update on some of the activities they'd been involved in related to
planning on the SW Corridor— basically 99W/I5 — a very broad swatch along that general
direction.
1:\LRPLN\Manning Commission\2010 I'C Packets\9-20-10\VS-URCR&SW Corridor Planning briefings-ODA Advisory Corn.Mfg\rpe 9-20-10 minutes.doc
Page 5 of 6
She reminded the commissioners that the Regional Transportation Plan identified this corridor
for future High Capacity Transit (HCT). It also identified several corridors,including this one
(the SW Corridor) for a Corridor Refinement Plan. She said this Corridor Refinement Plan is a
new concept and has been a focus in the Regional Transportation Plan. It focused less on
facilities and more on making connections.
Gray explained the first diagram (page one of the memo —Exhibit C). She explained the
different components of the larger corridor study and then went over the timeline.
Gray told the commission that the Transportation Technical Advisory Committee (TTAC)
will be acting as the citizen's advisory committee for this.
8. OTHER BUSINESS -
A member of the audience,John Frewing, asked to address the commission briefly. He spoke
about what he sees as a possible "trend" that concerns him with regard to Tigard planning.
He thinks some developers take the process apart and fragment the decision making such that
the City doesn't get what he thinks is intended. For example, the Tree Code doesn't require
mitigation if you just go for a tree removal permit as distinguished from a tree removal permit
as part of a development project. So by going just for the tree removal permit you skip the
concept overall. He finds this fragmentation worrisome. He brought up another example with
regard to sensitive land reviews and conceptual and detailed plans.
Commissioner Vermilyea spoke to Frewing's concern. He said the codes and processes appear
to be a bit archaic, and creative developers with creative teams are doing what they do --which
is taking advantage of the system with which they're confronted with. The laws on the books
are the laws on the books and you can't fault them for trying to... Frewing interjected that he
agreed— and that that was why he raised it as a "generic" issue rather than a specific one.
9. ADJOURNMENT
President Walsh adjourned the meeting at 9:15pm.
Doreen Laughlin, Planning Comsion Secretary
fAi1.
ATTEST�Presii Ieavi.` fsh f
I:\LRPLN\Planning Commission\2010 PC Packers\9-20-10 WS-UPCR&SW Corridor Planning briefings-LOA Advisory Coin.Mig\tpe 9-20-10 minutes.doc
Page 6 of 6
EXHIBIT A
September 10, 2010
City of Tigard
Goal 9 Update:Economic Opportunities Analysis
Draft Interview Summary
In support of the City of Tigard's statewide planning Goal 9 Economic Opportunity Analysis,
consulting staff interviewed twelve business leaders,employers and economic experts to gather
perspectives on the City's current position and future economic opportunities. Summary of
interview responses are included after each question,shown in italics. The list of respondents is
included at the end of the summary.
1. What is Tigard's primary market advantage within the state and region with regard to attracting
population and jobs? What do you feel are its greatest assets?
Stakeholders consistently reported that Tigard's location is its primary asset,particularly its
proximity to I-5 and other major transportation corridors such as Highway 217 and Highway
99W. Other factors frequently cited included Tigard's position relative to Portland,an educated,
affluent population, and 'open spaces.Four respondents mentioned that the size of Tigard and its
suburban setting are attractive. Other named assets include the variety of housing options,
diversity of office and industrial buildings and availability of land.
2. I'm going to read you a list of seven (7)items. From the list,please identify Tigard's primary strengths
as a place to do business.
The list below is organized in order of frequency of response, shown in parentheses.
• Proximity to I-5 and other transportation corridors (11)
• Quality of Iife (10)
• Available,skilled workforce (10)
• Adequate public infrastructure(transportation,utilities,etc.) (5)
• Access to local markets and customers (5)
• General business climate (4)
• Interaction with firms in the same and/or related industries(2)
3. (Optional-for employers) Do you have plans to maintain or expand your business in Tigard? If not,
will you relocate within the region or elsewhere?Why or why not?
Most employers who were interviewed said they plan to maintain their current location but are
unlikely to expand. Two others said they hope to expand as the economy improves. Reasons for
not moving include preferred location, access, and property ownership. One employer said a
recent employee survey showed that most of their employees live near the business. One business
owner said they may relocate when the current lease expires and relocate to a more thriving
business district.
4. What geographic area(s) do you think best define(s) Tigard's competitive market region for commercial
office, retail and industrial development?
Most interviewees responded to this question by identifying areas in the City that are thriving or
successful employment districts. Four respondents felt that the Tigard Triangle is a particularly
competitive market area within the city, especially for industrial and retail uses. One person felt
strongly that the Triangle was not as competitive as the Hunziker area. Washington Square and
•
I COGAN
(WENS
COGAN
September 10, 2010
the surrounding area were cited twice as being competitive for retail. Other areas mentioned by
one person included Oregon Business Park, PacCorp and the area between Highway 99W and
Scholls Ferry Road.
5. The City is interested in redevelopment in its downtown and along the Highway 99W corridor,
developing a mixed-use district in the triangle south of Highway 99W and north of Highway 217, and
adding more neighborhood commercial uses to meet local needs. Do you agree with these priorities?
Why or why not?Are there other areas or corridors the City should focus on?
Most respondents agreed with these priorities, though several cautioned against development
that would compound existing transportation problems (particularly along Highway 99W). There
was support for revitalizing downtown by adding new businesses and destinations; including
mixed uses, parks and housing that contribute to a unique identity for the City. There was also a
good deal of support expressed for improving the Triangle by adding services and diversifying
the types of businesses there with available land. Other ideas for focused efforts included the
Tiedeman/Greenburg area, the area north of Highway 99W and in the Oak Street or Locust Street
areas by Washington Square.
6. What can Tigard do locally to complement the regional and state economy?
Several respondents felt that improvements to the transportation network are important to
support the Tigard economy. This included improving conditions for vehicle traffic, providing
access to alternative transportation facilities such as bike lanes and light rail, and working with
regional agencies (e.g.,JPACT) to solve transportation problems. Two respondents suggested that
the City needs an economic development department and/or active business recruitment by the
mayor, city manager and economic development staff. Other ideas included lower taxes,
incentives to start a business or re-locate in Tigard, and grants for small businesses. Two
respondents recommended continuing to improve upon the current level of service and
responsiveness of City building and planning staff. One suggested retaining large industrial tracts
to attract potential employers.
7. What types of land and/or economic development actions or incentives are most needed in the City to
nurture job growth and private investment?
Respondents' most common suggestion was for the City to improve infrastructure -particularly
transportation. Others suggested lowering taxes and strategically reducing system development
charges (SDCs)for small businesses or other potential employers. Another suggested using
enterprise zones or urban renewal areas to capture future tax revenues.Two others emphasized
the importance of diversifying local businesses and professional services,particularly downtown.
8. What actions should be taken by the City to create a more balanced and sustainable community?
Interview respondents had several ideas about how to create a balanced and sustainable
community.These include diversifying the types of business in the city,adding more
transportation options and creating mixed-use districts.Two people said that the City needs to
focus its efforts and build a distinct identity and greater sense of community,including
supporting local business and adding more commercial services to residential areas.Others
suggested creating affordable housing and mixed-use districts near commuter rail and future light
rail.Two respondents noted that they thought the City is doing well with its current efforts.
2 COGAN
OWliNS
COGAN
r..rirr
September 10, 2010
9. Along those lines, the City wishes to better balance jobs and housing. What types of housing do you
think are most needed?
While three interviewees responded that the current mix of housing is adequate,others suggested
the need for a more diverse housing stock. Specific needs include moderate to low-income
housing in or near downtown and commercial services,second-floor residential,condominiums
and small lot or zero lot line homes. A few respondents suggested siting mixed-income housing
near transit routes.
10. What business clusters exist or should exist in Tigard? What can the City do to build and strengthen
these clusters?
Most interview respondents said that Tigard does not have business clusters other than some
collection of general services and industry. One identified a cluster of finance and professional
services.Several felt that Tigard has a good diversity of businesses and does not need to build
clusters. Others suggested that the City could encourage clusters by recruiting a large company so
that supporting organizations follow, or by acquiring and consolidating large parcels to sell to a
major employer. One respondent recommended the City find a niche such as specialty medical,
technical or manufacturing that does not compete with existing retail establishments including
Washington Square.
11. What opportunities and challenges are there to expanding the traded sector in Tigard?What goods and
services could be produced locally rather than imported, and what could be exported?
Most respondents did not have an answer for this question. One suggested that all services are
imported and another suggested polling the manufacturing sector to identify existing goods and
services offered in Tigard. Another interviewee pointed out that there is a great deal of vacant
Class A and B office and industrial space,which is both a challenge and an opportunity for the
City to attract new industry and business.
12. Are there certain goods or services that you think are missing in the City of Tigard today?
Goods and services that interviewees said were missing from Tigard include downtown grocery
and retail,upscale restaurants and neighborhood commercial services. Others suggested that
Tigard needs light rail or bus rapid transit as well as more parks and trails. One recommended
that Tigard develop a unique identity based on neighborhood and housing design in order to
compete with the large surrounding retail and cited Sierra Madre,CA as a successful example.
13.Is there anything else you'd like to add?
Interview respondents offered the following closing comments:
• One person stated that he is frustrated with the lack of economic development activity on the
part of the City.
• Tigard has the opportunity to be a good example for a small city. Improve transportation
options and get people off the freeways while maintaining mobility in and between towns.
• The City needs to be efficient to support businesses. Be prepared for the economic upturn.
Keep an eye on the planning department and have a contingency plan to respond to an
increase in business activity (e.g.,hire contractors or new staff).
3 COGAN
MI NS
COGAN
September 10, 2010
• Be sure to "over-communicate" this and other City projects.Explore and use a variety of
communication media,including mail and social media.
• It is great that the City is doing this type of outreach and planning.
• Tigard's city council members toured Vancouver,BC a few years ago to look at urban
planning and transportation issues.The trip,hosted by Metro,was very beneficial in
generating ideas on how to meet these challenges.
List of Interviewees
1. Kirsten Alvares,Gerber Legendary Blades
2. Jonae Armstrong,Washington Square
3. Mark Ellsworth,Economic Revitalization Team
4. Donald Fox,Fox Chiropractic Clinic
5. Mike Marr,Tigard Central Business District
6. Debi Mollahan,Tigard Area Chamber of Commerce
7. Bonnie Nakashimada,George Fox University
8. Jonathan Schlueter,Westside Economic Alliance
9. George Specht,Specht Properties
10. Eric Sporre,PACTrust/Oregon Business Park
11. Mike Stevensen,B&B Printing
12. Eric Turner, GVA/Kidder Matthews
4 COGAN
O VIiNS
COOAN
EXHIBIT B
1/•l"September 2.2010
City of Tigard Economic Opportunities Analysis
Trends Analysis
Introduction
This memorandum provides a summary of the work conducted as part of Task 2 Trends
Analysis for the Tigard Economic Opportunities Analysis Goal 9 update. As part of this work
task, FCS GROUP performed the following activities:
+% Compiled and analyzed Metro demographic and employment forecasts, Oregon
Employment Department data, retail inflow/outflow trends, and commercial and
industrial leasing market activity.
+ Conducted an economic overview and real estate market analysis for new commercial
and industrial development in the Tigard Urban Service Boundary.
Evaluated near-term (1-year) and long-term(20-year) commercial and industrial
development potential for the Tigard Urban Service Boundary.
Prepared market supportable near-term and long-term land needs forecasts.
The preliminary findings for each of these work activities are summarized below.
Market Trends Analysis
FCS GROUP conducted an economic overview and real estate market analysis of office,
commercial retail, industrial, and public government space development for the Tigard Urban
Service Boundary. This analysis is focused on the expected level of demand for new
commercial, industrial, and public development and related gross buildable land needs over
the next 20 years (2011-2031).
The U.S. and Oregon economy are currently mired in the aftermath of a national economic
recession that began in December 2007. The current economic slowdown is now the longest
on record since the Great Depression, but some economic expansion is beginning to occur.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP is
the measure of value of all goods and services in the U.S.) increased at an annual rate of 3.7
percent during the first quarter of 2010, and increased by 2.4 percent during the second
quarter of 2010.
Consumers are still very cautious as unemployment rates remain high, and high levels of
home foreclosures continue. Oregon posted a year-over-year overall job loss of 16,000 jobs
between June 2009 and June 2010. At the same time,the state's unemployment rate
decreased to 10.5 percent in June 2010, compared to 11.6 percent in June 2009. It should be
noted that Oregon's employment levels have declined over the past year in spite of the drop
in unemployment rate. This trend likely reflects a decline in the number•of people who are
actively seeking employment.
The U.S. and Oregon economy are now poised for a slow economic recovery. The July 2010
survey of the National Association of Business Economists reported expectations of slow
growth in GDP during the second half of 2010 in the U.S. as industry demand, profit
margins, employment, capital spending, and credit conditions improve.
Despite job losses,population levels continue to increase in both Oregon and Tigard due to
population migration patterns, increases in immigrant population levels, and natural
population increases. As indicated in Table 1, according to the Portland State University
Population Research Center,the population in Tigard increased to 47,460 residents in 2009,
up from 42,260 residents in 2000. The average annual growth rate (AAGR) for population in
Tigard was 1.3% between 2000 and 2009, which was below the level of population growth
recorded for Washington County, but above the Oregon and national growth rates.
Table 1. Population Trends,2000 to 2009
Annual
2000 2009 Change;
2000-2009
Tigard 42,260 47,460 1.3%
Washington County 449,250 527,140 1.8%
Oregon 3,421,399 3,823,465 1.2%
USA 282,171,957 307,006,550 0.9%
Source: Portland State University,Population Research Center.
Metro (the regional government) has prepared forecasts for households and employment for
all local jurisdictions in the Metro Urban Growth Planning Area. The most recently adopted
Metro growth forecasts are referred to as the Metroscope Generation 2.3 model, and include
a forecast period from 2005 to 2030. FCS GROUP extrapolated the Metro forecasts to year
2035 using Metro's forecasted growth rate from the 2005-2030. While Metro is currently in
the process of preparing updated growth forecasts for the region, the Metroscope Generation
2.3 forecasts are being used for this EOA since they are the only set of officially adopted
forecasts at this time. As indicated in Table 2,the 2005 to 2035 forecasts anticipate that
Tigard will add approximately 3,185 households and 24,167 jobs over the 25-year period.
As noted in Table 2,the Metro job growth forecasts reflect the fact that Tigard is relatively
"jobs rich"with a positive ratio of 2.3 jobs per household, which is well above the tri-county
Metro regional average of 1.5 jobs per household. This is no surprise given Tigard's
concentration of regional employment centers, including Washington Square Mall as well as
the "Tigard Triangle" employment area near the confluence of 1.-5/Hwy.217,as well as
pockets of industrial uses along the Hwy. 217 corridor.
Table 2 Metro Growth Forecasts for Households and Employment,2005 to 2035
Households Proj. Proj.Avg.
Change Annual
2005-2035 Change(%)
2005 2030 2035
Tigard 17,724 20,341 20,909 3,185 0.6%
Clackamas County 140,415 241,821 269,594 129,179 2.2%
Multnomah County 288,926 372,913 392,439 103,513 1.0%
Washington County 189,925 272,998 293,545 I 103,620 I 1.5%
Total 3 County Region 619,266 887,732 955,578 336,312 1.5%
Employment
Avg.
Proj.Change Annual
2005 2030 2035
2005-2035 Change(%)
Tigard 41,308 60,637 65,475 24,167 1.5%
Clackamas County 145,581 251,286 280,273 134,692 2.2%
Multnomah County 493,671 705,72I 758,005 264,334 1.4%
Washington County 269,660 450,970 499,820 230,160 2.1%
Total3 County Region 908,912 1,407,977 1,538,098 629,186 1.8%
Proj.
Jobs Per Household Ratio Tigard Proj.Tigard
Capture of Capture of
Region Region Jobs
2005 2030 2035 HHs
Tigard 2.3 3.0 3.1 0.9% 3.8%
Clackamas County 1.0 1.0 1.0
Multnomah County 1.7 1.9 1.9
Washington County 1.4 1.7 1.7
Total 3 County Region 1.5 1.6 1.6
Source:Metro adopted housing and employment growth forecasts, 2007;Metroscope Gen, 2.3;
extrapolated to 2035 by FCS GROUP.
Washington Square Mall already functions as a regional commercial center that draws in
shoppers and patrons from over a 30-mile radius. With 1,458,734 square feet (sf) of retail and
entertainment space,the mall has five anchor stores including JC Penny, Macy's,Nordstrom,
Sears and Dick's Sporting Goods and 170 specialty stores. The mall added 28 new stores and
restaurants in 2005, along with a new multi-level parking structure.
In addition to large retail employers, Tigard is also home to several large high-tech
manufacturing, construction contractors,professional and business operations, as well as
state and local government operations. Table 3 provides a list of Tigard employers with more
than 250 jobs per establishment.
According to regional commercial and industrial real estate brokers, Tigard is a well-defined
submarket within the suburban Metro region. Tigard's office market is especially
competitive within the inner southwest portion of the region, with businesses considering
locations among several areas including Tigard,217 Corridor/Beaverton,Kruse Way, Barbur
Blvd./Capitol Hwy., Tualatin and Wilsonville.
Recent office leasing market statistics indicate that office vacancy rates in the Metro region
have been increasing since 2008 as many businesses have shed jobs and scaled back on
required space needs. As indicated in Appendix A, negative absorption levels have been
occurring during the first six months of the year,particularly in Class A Office space, where
Tigard experienced a net loss of 13,097 sf during the first half of this year. As of July 1,2010
Tigard had a total amount of Class A vacancy rates of 151,900 sf and another 66,000 sf in
vacant Class B and C space.
Tigard's Class B inventory has experienced positive absorption this year,with 12,800 sf of
net absorption. Since July 2010, Tigard has recorded several positive lease transactions,
which rank among the largest in the region, such as Bridgewell Resources (32,088 gsf),
Comsys into the Lincoln Center, State Farm Mutual Insurance (23,712 gsf) into Fanno Creek
Place, and CAN Insurance (17,843 gsf) into the Pacific Parkway Center.
Industrial leasing activity and vacancy rates were also significantly impacted by the recent
economic recession. As indicated in Appendix B, Tigard had approximately 170,000 sf of
vacant flex space (13.4%vacancy rate), and 339,000 sf of vacant warehouse space (7.7%
vacancy rate) as of July 1, 2010. Overall industrial lease rates in the Tigard submarket
averaged $7.68 per sf/year, and was among the highest in the Metro suburbs.
The City of Tigard and ODOT are taking steps to enhance the Downtown Tigard area to
make it a more viable place to live and work. At a cost of$4.5 million,the Oregon Route
99W project is being paid for by ODOT, Washington County and the City of Tigard. This
project is slated for completion by October 2010 and will include a third through-lane on the
highway,turn lanes on side streets, an extended median, wider sidewalks,new bike lanes,
improved pedestrian crossings, and wider corners for truck turning movements. This effort
will also enhance access into/from downtown Tigard.
Tigard's recently completed Downtown Plan is setting the regulatory stage and establishing a
new vision for renovating downtown. The future vision is intended to be a 50-year look at
how the downtown could change into a location for a new"lifestyle center"with a wide
range of housing and commercial opportunities that optimize natural features, such as Fanno
Creek and Fanno Creek Park, transportation facilities, such as Hwy. 99 and the Westside
Express Commuter Rail system, and even light rail or bus rapid transit service to/from
Portland are envisioned.
Table 3 Large Employers in Tigard with More Than 250 Employees,2008
Firm Name Specialty Employment
Range
NORDSTROM Retail/Gen. Merchandise 500 or 999
TIGARD TUALATIN SCHOOL
DISTRICT Local Government 500 or 999
AEROTEK INC Temp.Emp. Agency 250-499
CITY OF TIGARD Local Government 250-499
COSTCO WHOLESALE
CORPORATION Retail/Gen. Merchandise 250 -499
HEALTH NET HEALTH PLAN OF
OREGON Health Insurance Carrier 250-499
JCPENNEY Retail/Gen. Merchandise 250 -499
MACYS Retail/Gen. Merchandise 250 -499
PERFORMANCE CONTRACTING INC Industrial Bldg. 250 -499
Contractors
Pension Fund
PERS HEADQUARTERS Management 250 -499
REMEDY INTELLIGENT STAFFING
INC Temp. Emp. Agency 250 -499
ROCKWELL COLLINS AEROSPACE& Mfg.,Aeronautical& 250 -499
ELEG Tech. Devices
STARPLEX CORP Temp. Emp. Agency 250 -499
WESTERN PARTITIONS, INC. Bldg. Interior Contractors 250—499
Source:Oregon Employment Department.
To estimate future development potential for Tigard employment,FCS GROUP evaluated
the 10-year employment growth forecasts prepared by the Oregon Employment Department
for the Metro Tri-County region,and Metro growth forecasts for Tigard. As indicated in
Figure 1,the 10-year job growth forecasts for the Metro Tr•i-County Region portend a
positive trend towards job growth for all industry sectors, except federal government and the
manufacturing sector. The sectors that are expected to grow the fastest in the Tri-County
Metro Region include: educational and health services;professional and business services;
Ieisure and hospitality; local government; retail; and wholesale trade.
Figure 1 Non-Farm Employment, Tri-County Metro Region, 2008-2018 Forecast
Local government 0111111111111111 8,040
State government 1,890
Federal government (270) i
Other services mu 2,210
Leisure and hospitality 10,590
Educational and health services 23,910
+
I I
Professional and business services 19,780
Financial activities ® 2,730
Information 800
Transportation,warehousing,and utilities MI 1,520 •
Retail trade 6,670
Wholesale trade 4,960
i !
Manufacturing (2,270)
Construction in 1,090
Natural resources and mining ® 1,190
Source: Oregon Employment Department, includes Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas Counties.
5
To estimate future development potential for Tigard, FCS GROUP evaluated the 10-year
employment growth forecasts prepared by the Oregon Employment Department as well as
the extrapolated employment growth forecasts from Metro. As indicated in Appendix C,the
20-year job growth forecasts for Tigard indicate a more positive trend towards job growth for
all industry sectors. According to Metro (and FCS GROUP interpretation of Metro data),the
general sectors that are expected to grow the fastest in Tigard over the next 20 years include:
services (+10,092 jobs); retail (+3,810 jobs), industrial/other(+1,324 jobs), and government
(+882 jobs).
The job growth projections indicate that Tigard should expect to experience significant
redevelopment opportunities over the next 20-years. A range in employment forecasts is
provided to take into account current weak market conditions and national economic
expectations that expect lower-rates of job growth over the next several years. As indicated
in Table.4,there is a great level of uncertainly regarding potential job growth for Tigard in
light of weak regional and national employment growth predictions.
Table 4,Forecasted 20-Year Employment Growth and Building Space Needs in Tigard
.Employment Growth Forecast Low Medium High
Retail Trades 2,286 3,048 3,810
Services 6,055 8,073 10,092
Industrial/Other* 794 1,059 1,324
Government* _ 529 706 882
Total 9,665 12,886 16,108
Supportable Building Square Feet in Tigard Low Medium High
Retail Trades 1,143,000 1,524,000 1,905,000
Services 2,422,000 3,229,333 4,036,667
Industrial/Other* 794,100 1,058,800 1,323,500
Government 211,760 282,347 352,933
Total I 4,570,860 6,094,480 7,618,100
Notes:
See supporting analysis in Appendix C. •
*Metro employment growth forecasts for"Other"were allocated to 60%industrial/other,and 40%government
by FCS GROUP.
Tigard is expected to add between 9,665 and 16,108 new jobs over the next 20 years. As
indicated in Appendix C,this amount of employment growth translates into approximately
4.57 to 7.62 million sf of new or renovated building sf(floor area). A large portion of this
demand will need to be met by redevelopment and utilization of vacant buildings since large
vacant undeveloped tracts of land are becoming increasingly scarce. It is estimated that
redevelopment and utilization of vacant buildings is expected to accommodate 70%of the
retail space demand, 50%of the service/office demand, 40% of the industrial demand, and
40% of the government facilities demand.
Table 5 shows the expected level of redevelopment and refill in Tigard over the next 20
years if redevelopment opportunities can be provided with adequate on-site parking and
priced at competitive lease/sales prices.
Table 5 Redevelopment and Refill Assumptions (2011 to 2031)
Industry Square Feet
Retail and Entertainment 800,000 to 1,300,000
Professional and Personal Services 1,200,000 to 2,000,000
Light Industrial/Flex 317,000 to 529,000
Government 84,000 to 141,000
After accounting for these levels of redevelopment activity, the amount of vacant land
demand in Tigard for employment uses over the next 20-years is expected to range from
238.6 to 397.7 acres,Preliminary estimates for vacant lands needs in Tigard by general
building type are provided in Table 6, and supporting assumptions are reflected in Table 7
and Appendix D.
Table 6 Preliminary Forecast; 20-Year Tigard Vacant Land Needs for Employment
(gross acres)
General Use Type Low Medium High
Retail Trades 41.1 54.9 68.6
Services 114.2 152.2 190.3
Industrial 69.9 93.2 116.5
Government 13.4 17.9 22.4 _
Total I 238.6 318.2 397.7
Table 7 Supporting Vacant Land and Development Assumptions
Jobs Needing Bldg. SF Gross:Net
Vacant Land I per Job 2 FAR 2 Land Need3
Retail Trades 30% 500 0.22 1.15
Services 50% 400 0.28 1.15
Industrial/Other* 60% 1,000 0.18 1.15
Government 60% 400 0.25 1.15
Notes:
1/Adjusts for building refill& vacancy allowances.
2/Building density derived from Metro UGR assumptions.
3/Allowances take into account 15%allocation of gross land area for
public/utility easements.
To help validate these assumptions,FCS GROUP conducted an additional analysis of retail
sales inflow/outflow within Tigard. The results are provided in Appendix E, and generally
indicate that the amount of local retail trade in Tigard over the next 20 years could support an
additional 1.4 million sf of redevelopment or new development activity, even if current high
levels of retail sales inflow were cut by 50%. Hence, it appears that the low or medium
growth forecasts seem to be a better match with respect to the market potential for the Tigard
area.
7
Draft Employment: Land Needs Findings and Next Steps
The actual amount and timing of new development will of course vary from year to year. The
wide range in development forecasts reflects current uncertainty regarding the region's
ability to retain and attract major employers,the City's desire to stimulate redevelopment in
downtown, and limited ability to accommodate new commercial and industrial development
on vacant lands.
These preliminary employment growth forecasts and resulting land needs will be refined
following review and feedback from the City, and when a more accurate understanding of the
vacant land supply is available.
8
Appendix A - Office Leasing Activity Summary, Mid-Year Report
OFFICE Leasing Activity,Mid-Year 2010(as of June 30,2010)
Class A Market Statistics Mid-Year 2010
Existing Inventory Vacancy YID Net YrD UnderConst Quoted
Market #Builds Total RBA Total SF Vac% Absorbtion Deliveries SF Rates
Central Business District • 41 11,389,435 1,412,066 12.4% (135,590) 368,800 62,200 $24.42
Suburban 141 17,234,745 2,225,626 12.9% (130,126)
Tigard _ ._ . 6 509,087 151,931 29.8%.. _ (13,097) - - . $23.93_
217 Corridor/Beaverton 12 1,142,430 303,750 26.6% (15,550) - - $21:77
Kruse W a y_.........__.. . 19 1,961,855 495,615 25 3% (26,228) . . - $26.05
Barber Blvd/Capitol Hwy - - - $0.00
Tulalatin 4 361,270 154,503 42.8% 5,604 ....
24.31
Wilsonville 4 325,501 55,071 16.9% - - - $24.77
Total r 182 28,624,180 3,637,692 r . 12.7%P (265,716) 364.800 P 62,200 P .$24.01
Class B Market Statistics Ml d-Year 2010
Existing Inventory Vacancy YTD Net YTD UnderConst Quoted
Market #Builds Total RBA Total SF Vac% Absorbtion Deliveries SF Rates
Central Business District 130 9,423,902 922523 9.8% 61,787 - - $20.18
Suburban 1155 30 8
_...�..,_..._ ,095,314_ 4,345~461..-._,... .14.435....~ {62,639) 14,000 268,854. ._.$17.82
Tigard 83 1,979,955 272469 14.0% 12,806 - - . $20.88
217 Corridor/Beaverton 72 1,719,571 314,759 18.3%•. 5,148 - - $16.40 -
Kruse Way 26 728,262 93,241. . 12.8% (14,059) -..... -.$20.76
Barber Blvd/Capitol HwY. 42 890,672 121,398 13.6% 2,337 - - 16.79
Tulalatin 30 • 704,815 105,798 15.0%
:• (7,289) - . . '$14.36
Wilsonville 17 622,051 30,169 4.8% (10,369) - - . $16.71 _
Total 1,285 P 39,519,216 P 5,272,984 P 13.3%P . (852)P 14,000 . 268,854 r $18.38
Class C Market Statistics . Mid-Year 2010
Existing inventory Vacancy YTD Net YTD UnderConst Quoted
Market #Builds Total RBA Total SF Vac% Absorbtion Deliveries SF Rates
Central Business District 177• 4,093.913. ,_489,48,6._ 12.0% 11,201 - - 17.49
Suburban _ :2,815_ 18,283,763 _ 129,081 __.....-_0.7% 611,66.5 $1436
Tigard 97 182 66493 10.0% (3199 _...-.
_...-.$ _.-._._...._.. ..._.. ...._._ .....�r......... .......s.._ _.... PAP). . . ..._ .. . . .. - $15.60 ..
/ $14.50
217 Corridor Beaverton.. ..._ 82 _ 609431 70,635.•___ .11.6%._- 1,202 - -
Kruse Way 19 133,044 2,452 1.8% - - - $18.00
Barber Blvd/Capitol Hwy 120.. 846,865 99,822 11.8% (5090) .- - ....
15.60
Tulalatin • 20 119,561 29,278 2.4.5% (5,598-
4.5% 9
5,58
(.-.-._).. . _ .. ....$14.73.
Wilsonville 21 103,496 2,681 2.6% 5,609 - $17.21
Total • . . 2,992 22,377,676 618,567 2.8% 79,866 - - $14.93
Class B and C Market Statistics Mid-Year 2010
Existing Inventory Vacancy YTD Net YTD UnderConst Quoted
Market #Builds Total RBA Total SF Vac% Absorbtion Deliveries SF Rates
Central Business District 307 13,517,815 1,417,009 10.5% 72,988 - - $19.37
Suburban 3,970 48,379,077 4,474,542 9.2% 6,026 14,000 268,854 $16.51
_Tigard .. .._. . _ _,. _. . 180. 2,642,137 343,962 13.0% 9,607 - - $19.56
217Corridor/Beaverton 154 2,329,002 385,394 16.5% 6,350 - - $15.90
Kruse Way 45 861,306 95,693 11.1% (14,059) - - $20.33
Barbur Blvd/Capitol Hwy 162 1,737,537 221,220 12.7% (2,753) - - $16.21
Tulalatin 50 824,376 135,076 16.4% (12,887)_ - - $18.69
Wilsonville 38 725,547 32,850 4.5% (4,760) - - $16.78
Total 4,277 61,896,892 5,891,551 9.5% 79,014 14,000 268,854 $17.14
Quoted Rates for Class 8 and C table are weighted average of Individual Band Cmarkets according to the iota!RBA Inventory
Source:CoStarOffice Report Mid-Year 2010;Capacity Commercial Group.
9
Appendix B Industrial Leasing Activity, Mid-Year 2010 Report
Flex Building Market Statistics Mid-Year 2010
Existinglnventory Vacancy YTD Net YTD Under Const Quoted
Market #Builds Total RBA Total SF Vac% Absorbtion Deliveries SF Rates
Central Business District 3 45,000 10,000: 22.2%. ..-_. -. _. . . , - , $16.50-
Suburban 741 18,956,577 2268,793 12.0% • (336,814) 70,020 - $10.23
Tigard 50 1,277 751 170,855 13.4% (12,799) - . - • $1230
217 Corridor/Beaverton 87 2,204,502 419,258 19.0%. (69237) . - - $11.77
Kruse Way 2 88,928 . - 0.0% - - - $0.00
.-Barbur Blvd/Capitol Hwy_ 7 53,681 6,771 12.630. 5,100 - - $_10.35
Tulalatin 14 430,840 23;229 5.4% (2,531) - -. $7.54
Wilsonville 29 1,661,734 201,334 12.1% (18,316) 7,020 - $9.31
Total• • 744 19,001,577 2,278,793 • 12.0% (336,814) . 70,020 P - $10.24
Warehouse Building Market Statistics . . Mid-Year 2010
Existing inventory • Vacancy YTD Net YTD UnderConst Quoted
Market #Builds • Total RBA . Total SF Vac% Absorbtion Deliveries SF Rates
Central Business District 41 1,616,833 141,090:_. 8,7% 41,843) -...- . . -. . $5.78
. .. . ... .. . . ...,...... . .......... .... _........„.....-.---..... .............. . - . -...$5.78
uburban_ . 4,694 167,214,476 13,813,643 . 8.3% 91,337 119,723 415,000 $5.55
.,0.$9 . . .. . , 119 4,394,617 .339,683 _.7.7% ......57,333 .. . '.... ........._._:. ...... $638...
217 Corridor/Beaverton 75 3,332,391 471,805 14.2% 31,770 - - $6.30
..Kruse,Way ,:.13. . ' 30.1. .3378..... . . .1.1%.... .-10,240. .. . ... -._ ._. . - 7.20
Barbur8lvd/Capitol Hwy .1'7 209,963 5,000 2.4% 8,000 - - • $6.16
Tulalatin ••221 8,453,141 675,494 8.0% (39,805) - - $5.20
Wilsonville ' 8$ 6,155;906. 1,268,475 20.6% 47,351 - - $5.95•
Total 4,735 168,831,309 13,954,733 P 8.3% 89,494 119,723 415000 • $5.55
Total Industrial Market Statistics ,
• Mid-Year 2010
Existing inventory Vacancy YTD Net YTD UnderConst Quoted
Market #Builds Total RBA Total SF Vac% Absorbtion Deliveries SF Rates
Central Business District 44 1,661833 151,090 9.1% (1,843) - $7.16
Suburban 5,435 186,171,053 16,082,436 e :8:6% (245,477 189,743 415,000 $6.19•
. Tigard.. . 169 5,672,368 510,538 r 9.0%.._.__.44, ...... .. ... :_. . •__$7.68
217 Corr'dor/Beaverton ... ......... ........ .. 16.1% (37,467)..,_....-_ _ - , $8.07
Kruse Way 15. 389,997 3.378 0.9% 10,240, $7.20 •
Barbur Blvd/Capitol Hwy 24 263,644 11,771 ▪ 4.5% 13,100 - •-.-_ • _.$8.01
Tulalatin 235 8,883,981 698,723 • 7.9% (42,336) .. -. ..---•_..___$5.29
Wilsonville 112 7,817,640 1,469,809 r. 18.8% 29,035 7,020 - $6.72
Total 5,479 187,832,886 16,233,526 • 8.6% (247,320) 189,743 415,000 $6.20
Source:CoStar Office Report Mid-Year 2010;Capacity Commercial Group.
•
•
•
10
•
Appendix C Analysis of Employment and Space Needs
Tigard Employment Growth Forecast,2005-2035 •
Change
2005 ProJ.2035 Jobs %
Retail Trades 9,854 14,428 4,572 46%
Services 11,372 23,482 12.110 106%
•
Industrial/Other* 12,049 13,637 1,588 13%'
Govemment" 8,033 9,092 1,059 13%
Total 41,308 60,637 19,329 47%
Source:Metro adopted housing and employment growth forecasts,2007;Nbiroscope Gen.2.3;extrapolated to 2035 by
FCS GROUP;assumes allocation of"Oilier"jobs at 60%industrial,and 40%government.
20,082 22,729
Proj.Tigard Net New Average Annual Employment Forecast(1 Year Forecast)
Low Medium High____
Retail Trades 114 152 19i
Services 303 404 505
Industrial/Other' 40 53 66
Government` 28' 35 44
Total 483 644 805
ProJ.Tigard........t New 20-Year Employment Forecast
Low Medium High
Retail Trades 2,286 3,048 3,810
Services 6,055 8,073 10,092
Industrial/Other` 794 1,059 1,324
Government` 529 706 882
Total 9,665 12,888 16,108
Pro'.Tigard New 20-Year Building Floor Area Space Needs Forecast
Jobs
Needing Gross:Net
Vacant Bldg.SF Land
Supportable Building Square Feet Low Medium High Land 1 per Jobs FAR2 Need3
Retail Trades 1,143,000 1,524,000 1,905,000 30% 500 0.22 1.15
Services 2,422,000 3,229,333 4,036,667 50% 400 0.28 1.15
Industrial/Other" 794,100 1,058,800 1,323,500 80% 1,000 0.18 1.15
• Government 211,760 282,347 352,933 60% 400 0.25 1.15
Total 4,570,860 6,094,480 7,618,100 Notes:
i 1/Adjusts for building refill&vacancy allowances.
2/Building density dented from Metro UGR assumptions.
3/Allowances take Into account land dedicated to
public/utility easements.
ProJ.Tigard 20-Year Vacant Land Needs Forecast
Required Gross Buildable Acres Low Medium High
Retail Trades 41.1 54.9 68.6
Services 114.2 152.2 190.3
Industrial 69,9 93,2 116.5
Government 13.4 17.9 22.4
Total 238.6 318.2 397.7
11
•
Appendix D Analysis of Retail Inflow/Outflow
Analysis of Retail Development Potential
Tigard Area •
2010 to 2030
Est.2010 Population in City 48,100
•
Proj.2050 FbpulatIon In City 62,278
Arialysls of Effective Buying Income(EBI)
Est.2010 Fbr Capita Income 1/ $33,000
Proj.2030 Per Capita Income 1/ $36.462
Fst.•2010 Aggregate-EBI(000) $1.587,300
A .2030 Aggregate®I(000) $2,270,749
Change In Aggregate®I(000) $683,449
•.. :,••• • ., :. • '" Future 2030 Supportable R(ttalf l7evejoptrjenf
..:. .,..•:,..:.•:. ._:. ;,;;" Anafyais.ofptlstfng&Futul'e,R9f;IISaIes' : Potentlal:i,�`:�.�±,r;r•.:_;' ; . .
2010'.. 2030..
Retell Retail •
Distrlbutl . Buying Buying . Total
on of ; Power Power Change Sales Sales Support ' Supportable
Local from ' front 'In Retail Attributed Attlbuted-• able Sq.Ft.of New
income by: Local , •Local • Buying to Local ■to Retail Retail . Retail
Store !Residents:Residents Power . Residents . Inflow Sales ! Development
Store Group Orodp 2/ ; (000)2/ ,_ (000)2( (000) . (000) (000)4/ • (000) 51
Food Stores 8.3% ; $131,746: $188,4721 $58,726; $51,054; $12,763; $83,817; 236,000
£atirig&Drinking 5.0% $79,385 $113,537' $34,172 . $30,7551. $13,181, $43,9361 182,000
Gen.Merchandise 5.5% $87,302 $124,891 $37,590 $33,831 $27,680: $81,510: 227,000
Furniture,Fixtures&Appliances 2.2% $34,921. $49,956 $15,036, $13,532. $11,072 $24,6004, 91,000•
AutomotiveServices • • • 9.6% $152381 $2179921 $65611 • $52,4891 • $42,945! $95,4341 352,000
OfherlMsc. 11.3% $179,365 $256,595' $77,230 $54,061 $23,169 $77,230. 285,000
Total. 41.9% $665,079: $951,444; $286,365 $235,722' $130,810 $366,532: 1,353,000
;Notes: ,. .. .... ,..k.....__.._......
•
1/Derived from US Census estimates;assumes.05%annual real income growth.
'2/Store group sales allocations from U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis,Consumer Expendure Survey,Western United States.
3/Based upon employment estimates:assumes 500sq.tt perjob,5%vacancy allowance,andavg.sales of$275/sq-ft.
.4/Future retail Wow assumed to account for30%to 45%of total retail sales.
5/Building area assumes 2285/per sq.ft annual sales,and 5%vacancy allowance.
'Source:9nafysis byFCS GROUP. •
•
•
•
•
12
•
IIIEXHIBIT C
I City of Tigard
TidARD Memorandum
Bf�7.`.iE, "Li�Y9a"1sSKii?'iS'G8i1'.41td7}SY.4�JS�«i5'SiSi`iai.`.;ii8:3zi±.zY;.: :it->.....i..,�,r.Y.LH l!f.:�C•:%etbl:k'�iP:Y.�?7J'I,.:i.5�1':Crw..i3,1'o.�xdi.0�J„'.i!'<i4'i,'YtR?�J'.:i'lt7iv:4vt3Ai ai;:35SGfSi
To: Members of the Planning Commission
From: Todd Prager,Associate Planner/Arborist
Re: Urban Forestry Code Revisions, Project Update
Date: September 7, 2010
Tigard City Council adopted the Urban Forest section of the Comprehensive Plan in 2008 and
accepted the Urban Forestry Master Plan (UFMP) in 2009 to help guide and inform an update
of the City's tree and urban forestry related code provisions.
The Urban Forestry Code Revisions project will address the Urban Forest section of the
Comprehensive Plan as recommended in the UFMP through a series of six thematic code
packages including 1) Hazard Trees, 2) Street Trees-Non-Development, 3) Use of Current
Mitigation Funds, 4) Development Code I (Tree Plan Requirements), 5) Development Code II
(Tree and Grove Preservation Incentives and Requirements), and 6) Non-Development Permits,
Besides Street Trees. These packages will be developed sequentially by staff under Technical and
Citizen Advisory Committee review through June 2011. On consensus by the Advisory
Committees, the proposed code amendments will be forwarded as a single package to the
Planning Commission after review by a panel of development and urban forestry experts.
Commission hearings will be scheduled for the second half of 2011 with City Council hearings
and adoption by year's end. Staff will involve the public throughout the process by
implementing the project's Public Involvement Plan which includes regularly updating the
project website, sending project updates to interested parties, and discussing the project with
community members at events such as the Farmer's Market and open houses. The schedule for
the various pieces of the Urban Forestry Code Revisions project is attached.
Only revisions to the Community Development Code will require Planning Commission review.
However, revisions to the Municipal Code will be provided to the Commission so the
Development Code revisions can be given context.
The code items currently under completion include defining and prohibiting hazard trees, and
refining the City's planting, maintenance, and removal standards and approval criteria for street
trees during non-development scenarios. Both of these items will require revisions to the
Municipal Code.
1
Staff and Winterbrook Planning are also continuing inventory work on tree groves based on
Council and Planning Commission input received on July 20, 2010. The inventory will be the
focus of an incentive based tree grove preservation program through the Goal 5 process. The
first public open house with affected tree grove property owners is scheduled for October 6,
2010. The tree grove portion of the project will require revisions to the Development Code.
More details on the Urban Forestry Code Revisions Project can be found on the project website
at http://www.tigard-or.govicommunity/treesicode revision.asp.
ATTACHMENT: URBAN FORESTRY CODE REVISIONS, PROJECT TIMELINE
2
City of Tigard
Urban Forestry Code Revisions — Project Timeline
June '10 July '10 August '10 September'10 October'10 November '10 December '10 January'11 February '11
Project Kickoff
Cl,
Z
0
H Assessment and Collaboration
I I I
CC
W Draft Code Revisions
0
0
0
0 0 0 °°o° 0 0
Hazard Trees Hazard Trees Street Trees Use of Current Development Code I Development Code II
(Non-development) Mitigation Fund
Street Trees Development Code II Non-development
(Non-development) Use of Current Development Code I Tree Plan Incentives Permits
Mitigation Fund Tree Plan Requirements Tree Grove Preservation (Besides Street Trees)
Incentives/
Requirements
Exisitng Grove,GIS Review
W
0 Tree Grove Inventory
IX
07 I I
W ESEE Analysis Report
IIC
Draft Program
Z Project Kickoff
W
W
Assessment and Collaboration
0
Z
Draft Code Revisions
V
J
m
m
a-
1
KEY: Technical Advisory Committee Meeting Citizens Advisory Committee Meeting Planning Commission or Council Meeting • Tentative Citizens Advisory Committee Meeting
*Dates for Planning Commission and City Council meetings are subject to change.Please check the City's website for updates.
1
City of Tigard
Urban Forestry Code Revisions — Project Timeline
March '11 April '11 May '11 June '11 July '11 August '11 September '11 October '11 November '11
H
Z
0
N_
Peer Review
CC
Draft Code Revisions
G
0
V
Adoption Process
00 U 0 �O>
Non-development Comprehensive Comprehensive Planning Commission Planning Commission City Council City Council Hearing*
Permits Review of Review of Workshop* Hearing* Workshop*
(Besides Street Trees) Code Changes Code Changes
Comprehensive
Review of
Code Changes
W
0
CC
W
W
CC
F-
H
Z
W
2
W
0
z
Draft Code Revisions
V
Adoption Process
a
KEY: Technical Advisory Committee Meeting Citizens Advisory Committee Meeting Planning Commission or Council Meeting • Tentative Citizens Advisory Committee Meeting
*Dates for Planning Commission and City Council meetings are subject to change.Please check the City's website for updates.
2
7 1 " MEMORANDUM
T I GARD
TO: Tigard Planning Commission
FROM: Judith Gray, Senior Transportation Planner
RE: Update on Southwest Corridor Planning Activities
DATE: September 20, 2010
The City of Tigard is currently engaged in a regional coordinated plan being dubbed the
"Southwest Corridor Plan." The corridor plan is comprised of separate efforts by the cities
of Tigard, Tualatin, and Portland, which are focused on identifying land uses to support
future transit investments. Metro, ODOT, and TriMet are leading the efforts specifically
addressing transportation analyses, though each of the cities will play significant roles.
The figure below illustrates the individual plans that comprise the larger Southwest Corridor
Plan.
Portland "Barbur }
Concept Plan"
iiik
Metro, ODOT, &
TriMet The
"Southwest SOUthwest Tigard "99W
Corridor Transit Land Use Plan"
Alternatives Corridor
Analysis"
°Iar
Metro, ODOT &
TriMet Tualatin "99W
"Southwest
Corridor
Corridor Planning"
Refinement
Plan"
• Tigard "99W Land Use Plan"—Tigard's land use plan happens to be the first project
getting started. This plan is funded by a state Transportation and Growth
Management (TGM) grant with the purpose of identifying conceptual land use plans
for future high capacity transit (HCT) station areas. Metro and the City of Tigard
were jointly awarded the grant. A consultant has been selected. The final scoping is
taking longer than expected. This is largely due to the complexity of coordinating the
multiple projects.
• Portland "Barbur Concept Plan" and Tualatin "99W Corridor Planning"—These will
be somewhat similar to Tigard's land use plan but with emphasis on local issues
• Metro, ODOT &TriMet "Southwest Corridor Refinement Plan"—This project
comes from the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP),which was just adopted. The
purpose of the Corridor Refinement Plan is to take a broad view of mobility along
the "corridor" that includes I-5 and Highway 99W between Portland and Sherwood.
This is a significant undertaking,which will include the network of freeways and
highways, and "explicitly including parallel networks of arterial streets, sidewalks,
regional bicycle and pedestrian facilities, high capacity transit, and other transit
service. In addition, the corridor refinement plan would consider the development
and function of land uses along the corridor."
o An important output of the SW Corridor Refinement Plan is the development
of Alternative Mobility Standards for specified locations on state highways.
The current mobility standards often limit the capacity for future development
to levels that may not support transit investments. The Refinement Plan
approach is intended as a coordinating mechanism between land use and
transportation planning.
• Southwest Corridor Transit Alternatives Analysis—The Alternatives Analysis (AA)
will include an evaluation of alternative alignments and modes for HCT. This will
incorporate the HCT station area concepts identified in the individual city land use
plans.
The Schedule, Scope and Budget Concept for the SW Corridor Plan (attached on the next
page) illustrates the relative timing of these projects. The timeline shows that the land uses
plans are expected to be completed in 2012. A critical milestone in the planning work is
anticipated in early 2013 with the adoption of the Corridor Refinement Plan. This will be
followed by still more detailed analysis as part of the National Environmental Policy Act
(NEPA) process.
Southwest Corridor Plan
Schedule, Scope and Budget Concept (7/9/10) X
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
LAND USE Tualatin,Tigard&Portland&...
Transportation and Corridor Refinement
--a 'Participation and decision-making by all
TPAC 7/30
JPACT 8/12
Multimodal Alternatives Analysis
plementation Plan
i .— (Funding/Phasing)
♦ Adopt Corridor Refinement Plan—determine multimodal
needs,planned functions and general locations;amend
regional and local plans as needed
Current Planning Efforts DEIS Documentation ♦ HCT LPA
New Starts
HCT PE
HCT
FEIS/ROD
HCT Final
Design
♦ FFGA
Constructs•
Vision for Future Planning Efforts HCTa • • her
Earliest Open?
Corridor Refinement and Coordinated Components: $8-10 M To HCT LPA:$13-14 M To HCT PE Completion: $60M Design/Construction: $???
•Land Use Aspirations •Narrow Alternatives •New Starts/Local/Regional/ •Complete Final Design
•Corridor Refinement Plan •Finish DEIS State Funding •Construction and Start Up
•Multimodal Alternatives •PE