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City Council Packet - 01/30/2012 City of Tigard Tigard Special Meeting - Agenda TIGARD TIGARD CITY COUNCIL AND TIGARD - TUALATIN SCHOOL DISTRICT BOARD MEETING DATE AND January 30, 2012 - 7 p.m. TIME: MEETING LOCATION: City of Tigard - Town Hall - 13125 SW Hall Blvd., Tigard, OR 97223 PUBLIC NOTICE: Times noted are estimated. Assistive Listening Devices are available for persons with impaired hearing and should be scheduled for Council meetings by noon on the Monday prior to the Council meeting. Please call 503- 639 -4171, ext. 2410 (voice) or 503- 684 -2772 (TDD - Telecommunications Devices for the Deaf). Upon request, the City will also endeavor to arrange for the following services: • Qualified sign language interpreters for persons with speech or hearing impairments; and • Qualified bilingual interpreters. Since these services must be scheduled with outside service providers, it is important to allow as much lead time as possible. Please notify the City of your need by 5:00 p.m. on the Thursday preceding the meeting by calling: 503- 639 -4171, ext. 2410 (voice) or 503- 684 -2772 (TDD - Telecommunications Devices for the Deaf). SEE ATTACHED AGENDA City of Tigard TIGARD Tigard Special Meeting - Agenda TIGARD CITY COUNCIL AND TIGARD - TUALATIN SCHOOL DISTRICT BOARD MEETING DATE AND TIME: January 30, 2012 - 7 p.m. MEETING LOCATION: City of Tigard - Town Hall - 13125 SW Hall Blvd., Tigard, OR 97223 7 PM 1. SPECIAL MEETING A. Call to Order- Mayor Dirksen B. Roll Call C. Pledge of Allegiance 2. Discussion Topics for the Joint Meeting with Tigard - Tualatin School Board: A. Review recent accomplishments and goals of the district and the city. B. Explore the potential for partnership opportunities between the district and the city. C. Overview trends facing the school district that are shaping the need for facility /program changes. D. Share what is on the planning horizon for the city; i.e., River Terrace area. 3. ADJOURNMENT 8:30 p.m. - time is estimated AIS -755 Item #: 2. Special Meeting Date: 01/30/2012 Length (in minutes): 90 Minutes Agenda Title: Discussion Topics for the Joint Meeting with Tigard- Tualatin School Board Prepared For: Marty Wine, City Manager Submitted By: Cathy Wheatley Administrative Services Item Type: Update, Discussion, Direct Staff Meeting Type: Special Meeting ISSUE The Tigard City Council and Tigard- Tualatin School District Board meet periodically to discuss items of mutual interest and concern. STAFF RECOMMENDATION / ACTION REQUEST N/A - Discussion meeting. KEY FACTS AND INFORMATION SUMMARY The council and board plan to: • Review the district's and city's recent accomplishments and future goals. • Explore whether there is potential for partnership opportunities between the city and district; i.e., development of city improvements on district properties, possible agreements or proposals. • Overview of trends facing the school district and how that is shaping the need for future facility and program changes; share what is on the planning horizon for the city. • Share what is on the planning horizon for the city; i.e. River Terrace area. OTHER ALTERNATIVES N/A COUNCIL GOALS, POLICIES, APPROVED MASTER PLANS Goal 5 - Recreation a. Recreation ii. Create recreational opportunities by partnering with the school district and other agencies or groups. DATES OF PREVIOUS COUNCIL CONSIDERATION In recent years, the City Council and School Board held joint meetings on: May 29, 2008 March 31, 2009 chn_i, f 4 come O &ma/ed- i i le S ChOOLS SUPPLEMENTAL PACKET FOR 13 (DATE OF MEETING) We're proud o . • Highest graduation rate among Oregon's large districts • "Closing the Achievement Gap" award - winning schools • Top ranking in national Educational Productivity Report • Nationally recognized K -12 reading intervention program and Response to Intervention initiative • New textbooks and technology, aflchool year and m ... dl i rm , c ko Ate, www.ttsd.k12.or.0 . SUPPLEMENTAL PACKET FOR I I3C lac; I (DATE OF MEETING) 2 to $ cce Look to the Future, Perform Today Ti end- ftzhhhth $chooL 6 Distilc Mrptegle 6960 SW Sandburg Street Tigard, Oregon 97223 Toord of 6 DIreetors Barry Albertson Bob Smith Dana Terhune (Vice- Chair) Maureen Wolf (Chair) Jill Zurschmeide 'D1Strlel f dTDIDIStrOtIOYi Rob Saxton, Superintendent Sloan Presidio, Director of Educational Programs Dan Goldman, Director of Curriculum and Instruction Bonita Maplethorpe, Chief Financial Officer Ernie Brown, Director of Human Resources /Operations Tricia Clair, Director of Special Programs Susan Stark Haydon, Director of Communications Page 12 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting The l e e 'Plot) for the `fiord- `fuoLotirt $ehoot Th ric 2077 -20X6 Table of Contents Letter from the Board Chair 4 Acknowledgements 5 Mission and Vision 6 Designing and Implementing the Strategic Plan 7 Strategic Goals, Board Priorities, Critical Questions 9 Framework For Success 10 Student Achievement 2008 -2011 11 Goal 1: Individual Student Growth and Success 15 Goal 2: Exemplary Staff, Exemplary Employer 16 Goal 3: Effectively Manage Resources and Maintain the Public Trust 17 Goal 4: Leverage Technology to Enhance Learning and Effectiveness 18 Goal 5: Safe and Healthy Environment 19 Accountability 20 Action Plans by Year & 2011 -12 Goal Activities 21 Glossary of Terms 30 P age 13 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting Dear Students, Staff, Parents, and Members of the Community: It is our privilege to present the Tigard - Tualatin School District's five year strategic plan, Look to the Future, Perform Today. This document reflects the fundamental beliefs that were established in our original strategic plan almost ten years ago — - Our students will master essential skills & core knowledge and become informed & engaged citizens. - Our teachers & staff will provide a quality instructional program that addresses the diverse needs of all students. - Our leadership will achieve the districts' mission & vision, maintain public accountability, and engage parents and community in partnerships that support student learning. We thank all those involved in creating a strategic plan focused on student success and framed by clear goals and measurable outcomes. Our district's achievements are a manifestation of this work. During the summer of 2011, the board of directors and the superintendent worked to expand the strategic plan to reflect the dynamics that currently impact our students and community. Economic uncertainties, educational reforms, new evidence based best practices, and greater student diversity call us to deliver instruction through new avenues. In the spring of 2011, our community approved a $20 million bond that will enable us to ensure the quality of our curriculum, engage in technological innovations, and maintain our facilities. Effectively integrating technology into our classrooms is now a key priority for our district. While the future holds many uncertainties, we are confident that Tigard - Tualatin schools will continue to provide a quality education for our students. We believe this plan will serve as our compass as we navigate the challenges we will encounter over the next few years. We thank our community members that contributed to this planning process and we especially want to thank our outstanding staff for its unwavering commitment to our children. Respectfully, Maureen Wolf, Chair - Board of Directors Page 14 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting $Lcknowtied$ements This strategic plan for our school district was created through a process involving the Board of Directors, the Superintendent, district staff, students, parents and community members. We would like to specifically thank the following groups and individuals for their valuable insight as they reviewed and suggested revisions for this document: Jill Armstrong Monique Beikman Terri Burnette Frank Caro Cleon Cox Kevin Curry Dominque Dobson Carrie Ferguson Robin Gensler Margie Greene Jim Harbolt Marc Jolley Shivali Kadam Paula Kingsbury Linda Moholt Eric Nesse Veronica Predovic Rachel Rivera Todd Robson Ann Schoblaske Kathy Stallkamp Manny Trujillo Karen Twain John Weber Kaitlyn Yarnell Page I S Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting f irci) Sit0/1/.„ Educate every child. ar 1/LL) Vmt6w,,.. Every student thrives in school and graduates prepared to succeed. In our schools, each student: Is challenged by a rigorous academic program; Enjoys school and learning; Feels a sense of belonging; Is capable and confident. / Page I6 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting DESIGNING AND IMPLEMENTING THE STRATEGIC PLAN Individual student growth is the primary focus of TTSD school system's strategic plan. This requires great coordination, collaboration, and alignment of activities among the community and hundreds of employees affecting thousands of students. A coherent strategic plan implemented with fidelity will help to ensure the bar is raised for every child and every employee in the district resulting in increased student achievement and the closing of the achievement gap by race and ethnicity. There has been an on -going gap in achievement between ethnic groups in our district. This is unacceptable, like any achievement gap, and we are committed to close this and all achievement gaps in our district. It is important to note that this plan is not all inclusive of all activities in the district. It is, instead, a direction setting document that will drive district initiatives and assist in keeping the community and staff well informed of the "big picture ". This update to the strategic plan began in May 2011 with a commitment by the Board and Superintendent to review where the district is in relation to its current working strategic plan and to adjust it accordingly. In conducting the review the Board looked at the following key documents to inform its direction setting and actions: 1. The Strategic Planning Document: The document was originally created in 2003, with revisions being made annually. The revision work is typically completed in August and adopted in September. The Strategic Plan is used extensively to set the superintendent's yearly goals, and the goals for administrators, teachers, and the overall district. 2. Transformational Equity Plan: This plan was developed in conjunction and consultation with the Pacific Education Group (PEG) and was completed in 2010. The report takes a look at the racial achievement gap in the district and recommends a variety of district actions to expand and transform knowledge, will, skill, and capacity to focus on issues of educational equity. Current student results in multiple assessments and indicators of student success clearly show that students of color in our district typically lag well behind those of their white counterparts. 3. Time Study Report: This report was completed in 2009. The study was commissioned by the school board in response to input from participants in the District's visioning process in 2007 -08 who raised concerns regarding school schedules and how instructional time was being allocated in the TTSD. The following topics were addressed in the study: length of the school day, school starting times, the number of instructional days in the school calendar, Page 17 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting and time needed for teachers to meet with students and collaborate with peers. The report details 12 key findings and recommendations. 4. Visioning Report: This report and effort was completed in 2008. It has been helpful in providing the district with added direction. 5. Theory of Action: This document was created in the Fall of 2010 by school district administrators. It summarizes the way TTSD thinks about educating its students: commitment to rigorous instructional standards, high quality instruction, using data -based decision - making and focusing on continuous improvement. The school board and superintendent spent the months of June- August reviewing the above documents, reviewing student achievement in the district, looking at areas of high and low satisfaction with the current strategic plan, and reviewing strategic plans from other districts in Oregon and across the United States. The following adjustments have been made to the strategic plan to make it stronger: First, a new goal has been added: LEVERAGE TECHNOLOGY TO ENHANCE LEARNING AND EFFECTIVENESS. It was added because the community expressed a desire for the district to enhance its use of technology within the vision process conducted in 2008. That direction prompted the district to put forward a bond measure which will provide the district and its students much greater access to technology and the Board wanted to make sure the resources were directed at enhancing student achievement. Second, even though the goals in the previous strategic plan were maintained, the key activities inside the goals have changed adding new measurement points. Third, the new plan reduces the number of activities and measurement points to leverage district resources and provide focus in the system. The strategic plan highlights programs and initiatives that remain the foundation of the school system's ongoing improvement efforts. An example would be the board priority to target secondary content, instruction and programs due to a "dip" in achievement scores in grades 6 through 9, combined with a community perception that the academic challenge could be increased in these years. All initiatives are aligned with ongoing efforts, helping the school system maintain substantial consistency over time. Such continuity has enabled teachers, principals, support staff, parents, employee associations, and community members to work on common goals. The most obvious outcome of the strategic plan is the district's significant gains in student achievement. In addition, the plan is used to inform the budget process, district communications efforts, and the ongoing development of curricula, assessments, professional development components and technology. Page 18 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting STRATEGIC GOALS • INDIVIDUAL STUDENT GROWTH AND SUCCESS • EXEMPLARY STAFF, EXEMPLARY EMPLOYER • EFFECTIVELY MANAGE RESOURCES AND MAINTAIN THE PUBLIC TRUST • LEVERAGE TECHNOLOGY TO ENHANCE LEARNING AND EFFECTIVENESS • SAFE AND HEALTHY ENVIRONMENT BOARD OF DIRECTORS' ACADEMIC PRIORITIES • Align challenging curriculum, delivery of instruction, and assessment for continuous improvement of student achievement • Develop, expand, and deliver literacy -based initiatives kindergarten through grade 12 • Develop, pilot, and expand secondary content, instruction, and programs that improve students' active engagement in learning • Use student, staff, school, and district performance data to monitor and improve student achievement • Improve the achievement results for all students while closing the racial p g achievement gap between all sub - groups of students • Optimize resources for improved academic results • Create a culture where technology is a powerful tool for staff and students throughout the District and is embedded within all curricular areas • Support and improve employee effectiveness, in partnership with TTSD employee organizations, as a means to improve student learning • Strengthen family - school relationships and continue to expand civic, business, and community partnerships that support improved student achievement CRITICAL QUESTIONS • What do students need to know and be able to do? • How will we know they have learned it? • What will we do when they haven't? • What will we do when they already know it? Page 19 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting 1 FRAMEWORK FOR SUCCESS Tigard- Tualatin School District is committed to equity and excellence for all students. Equity in our schools is defined as high expectations and access to meaningful and relevant learning for all students so that outcomes are not predictable by race, ethnicity, gender, socioeconomic status, language proficiency, or disability. Excellence is achieved through high standards that ensure all students grow to reach their highest levels year after year and are college or career ready as high school graduates. In order to accomplish this, measurements are needed to monitor system progress in promoting equity and excellence. TTSD has made excellent strides in providing rigorous and high - quality education for every student through its focus on the teaching and learning process and individual student growth. More students are learning to read at an earlier age, more students are taking rigorous and challenging courses, and more students are being provided with opportunities to succeed at higher levels than ever before. This is accomplished through the implementation of strategies and initiatives in this strategic plan that promote more equity and excellence by creating the academic culture, the conditions, and the support systems to ensure student success. This recognizes strategic plan nizes that there is more work to be done to g P g eliminate the achievement gap and raise the academic achievement for all. Fostering an academic culture of high expectations for all students that is pervasive throughout TTSD requires the commitment of parents, students, staff, and community to equitable practices in classrooms and workplaces. Creating this culture also requires several critical conditions to encourage, support, and nurture equity and excellence - -- high expectations, expert instruction, positive relationships, and cultural competence. To create and sustain these conditions, we need to help all students, staff, and parents to learn and grow. This requires ongoing, deliberate efforts to build the capacity through targeted professional development. We are committed to the fundamental belief that success for all is possible. Page 1 10 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting TTSD Percent of students meeting and exceeding the 2010 -11 OAKS - Reading i00% 90% - I 7a% n N 50% ;- - I I IF iii 40% f 10% 1096 t ` n 1 I 0% 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th HS • 2007 -08 89.0% 91.0% 85.0% 74.0% 17.0% 72.0% 73.0% • 2008-09 89.0% 89.4% 84.1% 81.4% 81.3% 77.8% 73.8% ■ 2009 -10 89.1% 90.2% 87.9% 81.8% 83.1% 78.0% 81.5% • 2010 -11 92.4% 91.1% 85.3% 84.3% 84.2% 79.1% 87.5% ■ State 83.4% 853% 77.7% 79.1% 79.7% 72.0% 83.2% Page 1 11 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting TTSD Percent of students meeting and exceeding the 2010 -11 OAKS - Math 100% 90% - — 80% 70% - 60% - 50% - 40% - 30% - 20% - 10% - 0% 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th HS • 2007 -08 84.0% 86.0% 86.0% 72.0% 77.0% 72.0% 69.0% • 2008 -09 79.9% 83.9% 85.3% 77.1% 81.2% 75.5% 65.3% • 2009 -10 84.77% 85.69% 88.14% 80.61% 86.88% 77.41% 67.09% ❑ 2010 -11 89.93% 87.93% 87.17% 79.50% 87.04% 80.52% 79.71% Page 112 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting TTSD Percent of students meeting and exceeding the 2010 -11 OAKS - Writing 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% _ 40% 30% - 20% - - — 10% - 0% - 4th 7th HS • 2007-08 56.0% 56.0% 59.0% ■ 2008-09 54.0% 62.4% 64.6% ■ 2009 -10 52.7% 65.1% 70.2% ■ 2010.11 49.7% 61.9% 76.1% ■ State _ - 68.2% Page 113 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting TTSD Student Achievement 2008 -09 2009 -10 2010 -11 READING State average for 2010 -11 (Math not available due to change in cut scores) 3rd Grade 89.00 89.67 93.28 83.40 4th Grade 89.40 90.21 92.15 85.30 5th Grade 84.10 87.91 85.80 77.70 6th Grade 81.40 81.82 85.39 79.10 7th Grade 81.30 83.12 84.86 72.00 High Sch 73.80 81.51 88.83 83.20 MATH 3rd Grade 79.90 84.77 89.93 4th Grade 83.90 85.69 87.93 5th Grade 85.30 88.14 87.17 6th Grade 77.10 80.61 79.50 7th Grade 81.20 86.88 87.04 High Sch 65.30 67.09 79.71 WRITING 4th Grade 54.00 52.73 50.56 41.00 7th Grade 62.40 65.09 62.21 52.00 High Sch 64.60 70.19 81.11 68.20 Page 114 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting GOAL 1: INDIVIDUAL STUDENT GROWTH AND SUCCESS Board of Education Academic Priorities: • Align challenging curriculum, delivery of instruction, and assessment for continuous improvement of student achievement • Develop, expand, and deliver literacy -based initiatives kindergarten through grade 12 • Develop, pilot, and expand secondary content, instruction, and programs that improve students' active engagement in learning • Use student, staff, school, and district performance data to monitor and improve student achievement • Improve the achievement results for all students while closing the racial achievement gap • Optimize resources for improved academic results Objectives Measurement Points • Each student will make significant learning Annual State -wide Assessment gains every year Exceed Oregon average expected RIT gains as projected by ODE Develop and use common, formative, periodic assessments across the district • Close the racial achievement gap The percentage of students enrolling in advanced classes at the high school level will more closely represent the racial makeup of the District's demographics • Utilize EBIS in every school to provide Reports to the superintendent on effective interventions implementation of EBIS • Increase the academic expectations in Complete the exploration phase of the middle grades 6 -10 -level IB program and evaluate the effectiveness for TTSD Teacher training to improve student engagement and differentiated instruction Improved communications of increased expectations to parents • Increase high school graduation rates Graduation rates by school, disaggregated by subgroups Dropout rates by school, disaggregated by subgroups Improve access to on -line options for credit recovery • All students will graduate ready for college Percentage of students meeting all four ACT and career college readiness benchmarks Measure /track students post graduation Page 115 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting GOAL 2: EXEMPLARY STAFF, EXEMPLARY EMPLOYER Board of Education Academic Priorities: • Foster and sustain that support and improve employee effectiveness, in partnership with TTSD employee organizations • Use student, staff, school, and district performance data to monitor and improve student achievement • Organize and optimize resources for improved academic results Objectives Measurement points • The work environment promotes employee Annual climate survey well- being, satisfaction and positive morale Superintendent and others will periodically visit each school building, observing, speaking with staff, etc. • Hire excellent and diversified staff HR staff will annually present effective hiring practices to all district administrators Principals will report to central office each year regarding the process followed with each of its new hires. • Develop an effective evaluation process for The Board of Directors will adopt an licensed and administrative staff effective evaluation process. • Each staff member shall be evaluated The superintendent shall report to the annually. Board annually regarding the evaluation process and the percentage of staff that received a comprehensive evaluation according to policy. • All employees will be provided with high- Professional growth district data quality professional development District staff will receive training to improve opportunities to promote individual and effectiveness with our racial diverse population. organizational effectiveness. Administrative reports Staff reporting on climate surveys • Staff will have sufficient time to The superintendent will provide the schedule of collaborate with peers. elementary, middle and high school collaboration times to the Board annually. Page 16 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting GOAL 3: EFFECTIVELY MANAGE RESOURCES AND MAINTAIN THE PUBLIC TRUST Board of Education Academic Priorities: • Strengthen family - school relationships and continue to expand civic, business, and community partnerships that support improved student achievement • Support and improve employee effectiveness, in partnership with TTSD employee organizations, as a means to improve student learning • Optimize resources for improved academic results Objectives Measurement points • Demonstrate strong stewardship of District Clear /transparent monthly updates from the operating and capital resources superintendent at Board Meetings and posted on the website. Increased community engagement in the development of the annual district budget Expand use of technology to improve business efficiencies • Demonstrate strong stewardship of The District Long Range Facility Plan will Bond funds be reviewed and updated annually Bi- monthly district reports (include website, communication in board meetings and school newsletters) • All schools well maintained, efficient and Quarterly school inspections are conducted clean by a trained team and reports sent to each facility with commendations and recommendations for improvement Monitor and report the effects of guidelines on energy usage on a quarterly basis • Community members are encouraged Provide the school community access to and welcomed to visit schools and to technology resources ask any questions regarding the Bi- annual community survey district Board meetings accessible to the public. Semi - annual town hall /listening sessions Page 1 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting GOAL 4: LEVERAGE TECHNOLOGY TO ENHANCE LEARNING AND EFFECTIVENESS Board of Education Academic Priorities: • Optimize resources for improved academic results • Create a culture where technology is a powerful tool for staff and students throughout the District and is embedded within all curricular areas • Use student, staff, school, and district performance data to monitor and improve student achievement Objectives Measurement points • Develop a K -12 articulation plan for Plan developed for Board approval technology instruction /integration Annual investigation of new programs and revision of plan if required • Provide professional development in District staff development plan technology for every staff member Staff evaluations of professional development activities • Integrate technology into curriculum Board adoption of revised curriculum documents in a manner which is safe, documents effective and purposeful Principal evaluation of teachers utilizing integrated technology in content areas • Provide a District -wide online Annual report to the Board regarding instruction program online participation • Provide access to technology and Semi - annual report from school principals to connectivity for all students superintendent. • Develop and publish a student Handbook signed by all students /parents technology handbook and published / available on web site • Short and long -term plan that will Plan developed for Board approval replace some or all textbooks with technology resources Page 118 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting GOAL 5: SAFE AND HEALTHY ENVIRONMENT Board of Education Academic Priorities: • Support and improve employee effectiveness, in partnership with TTSD employee organizations, as a means to improve student learning • Strengthen family - school relationships and continue to expand civic, business, and community partnerships that support improved student achievement • Optimize resources for improved academic results Objectives Measurement points • All students and staff feel safe and Annual survey of staff /students secure • Full implementation of EBIS in all Development and teaching of online safety schools guidelines • All students will receive annual Semi - annual reports to the superintendent instruction regarding responsible of each school's implementation efforts technology use • All students receive instruction on Superintendent monitors reports from bullying /harassment prevention schools on bullying /harassment incidents • All schools are well- maintained and Quarterly school inspections are conducted clean by a trained team and reports sent to each school with commendations and recommendations for improvement • Students and staff will demonstrate Bi- annual student and staff survey tolerance and acceptance of all members of the school community Page 119 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting Accountability While ownership of the plan is anticipated and expected from all stakeholders, accountability ultimately rests with staff and the Board. The Board will hold the Superintendent accountable for showing measurable progress toward outcomes and the achievement of key milestones on the path to reaching the overall objective. The Board is also responsible for ensuring adequate resources are provided for staff to engage in the identified work. In addition, the Board annually sets goals for itself; these goals should correlate to and include specific actions for their support and furtherance of the five main strategy areas. Staff will implement actions based on the plans detailed in the previous section, and will be responsible for collecting and analyzing data to measure progress. At least twice per year, the Board will be given a progress report during a work session that includes the following information for each strategy area: Key actions taken since previous report Data Planned activities for the next three months Annually, the Strategic Planning Team will be reconvened to review progress to date and the action plan section; they will suggest any modifications to the plan for the ensuing year at that time. The Board will adopt the revised five -year plan annually which will include specific action plans for the coming school year. Page 120 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting Measurement Points Detail 1 -Yr (2011 -12) 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 Goal 1 Annual State -wide Assessment. Exceed Oregon average The average RIT gain in expected RIT gains as reading and math for all Will Exceed the Will Exceed the Will Exceed the Will Exceed the projected by ODE TTSD students will exceed State State State State Develop and use common, that of the state formative, periodic assessments across the district. Decrease the racial Annual State -wide Achievement Gap in reading Decrease gap by Decrease gap by Decrease gap by Decrease gap by Assessment and math OAKS results by 5% 5% points 5% points 5% points 5% points each year based on 2010 -11 standards The percentage of students enrolling in advanced classes The percentage of students of at the 1 =high school level will color enrolling in advanced Increase by 5% Increase by 5% Increase by 5% Increase by 5% more closely represent the high school courses will racial makeup of the District's increase by 10% demographics Reports to the Superintendent 100% of schools will on Implementation of EBIS successfully meet their EBIS 100% 100% 100% 100% audit Complete the exploration Completed exploration and Full phase of the middle -level IB MYIB Board Begin Submit MYIB program and evaluate the reports to the Board for decision implementation Applications implementation effectiveness for TTSD consideration. of MYIB 25% of District schools will Teacher training to improve have pilot common formative 75% of all student engagement and assessment projects 50% 75% 100% teachers differentiated instruction underway by June 15, 2012 Improved communications of Delivery of Delivery of Delivery of Delivery of increased expectations to Delivery of new strategic plan revised plan to all revised plan to all revised plan to all revised plan to all parents to all student households. student student student student households households households households Measurement Points Detail 1 -Yr (2011 -12) 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 Goal 1 Con't Graduation rates by school, Increase graduation rates of all disaggregated by subgroups subgroups by 2% as compared 4% 6% 8% 10% to 2010 baseline Deliver on -line credit options Improve access to on -line by February 2012 with a 75 students 125 students 200 students 250 students options for credit recovery minimum of 30 students earning credit earning credit earning credit earning credit earning credit Percentage of students 27% of all TTSD juniors meeting all four ACT college taking the ACT meet all 4 28% 29% 29% 30% readiness benchmarks college readiness benchmarks in 2012 86% of all TTSD graduates Measure /track students post entering 4 -year Oregon state 87% 88% 89% 90% graduation colleges return their sophomore year Page X22 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting Measurement Points Detail 1 -Yr (2011 -12) 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 Goal 2 75% of TTSD 80% of TTSD 80% of TTSD 85% of TTSD TTSD initiates a yearly employees indicate employees indicate employees indicate employees indicate Annual climate survey satisfaction survey for all workplace workplace workplace workplace employees. satisfaction in a satisfaction in a satisfaction in a satisfaction in a yearly survey yearly survey yearly survey yearly survey Superintendent and others will The Superintendent and district periodically visit each school office administrators will make 1000 visits 1000 visits 1000 visits 1000 visits building, observing, speaking a minimum of 500 school visits with staff, etc. a year HR staff will annually present 100% of district administrators effective hiring practices to all will receive annual training on 100% 100% 100% 100% district administrators effective hiring practices Principals will report to central 100% of principals will report office each year regarding the each year on the process used 100% 100% 100% 100% process followed with each of to hire an excellent and racially its new hires. diversified staff. The Board of Directors will A district and teacher team adopt an effective evaluation will convene and meet in an New process Train and pilot 100% evaluated 100% effort to create a new teacher completed new process with new process process. evaluation process. The Superintendent shall report to the Board annually regarding 100% of district staff shall the evaluation process and the receive their evaluation 100% 100% 100% 100% percentage of staff that received according to Board Policy on a a comprehensive evaluation yearly basis according to policy. Professional growth district 100% of district staff will 0 0 100% 100% data receive professional 100% 100 % 100 % development each year District staff will receive Increase percentages of staff Licensed 55% Licensed 60% Licensed 65% Licensed 0% training to improve trained in Courageous Classified 35% Classified 40% Classified 45% Classified 50% effectiveness with our racial Conversations: Licensed 51% % / Administration Administration Administration Administration diverse population. Classified 30% / 95% 95% 95% 95% Administrators 95% Page 123 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today — APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting Measurement Points Detail 1 -Yr (2011 -12) 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 Goal 2 District administrators will Con't provide two reports each year identifying Professional Effective use of Effective use of Effective use of Effective use of Administrative reports Development Plans and Curriculum department reports reports reports reports Professional Development / Calendar Staff reporting on climate 80% of staff will report o 80% 80% 0 satisfaction with professional 80% 80 /° 80 /° 80 /° surveys development on a yearly basis. The superintendent will provide Work with Work with Work with Work with the schedule of elementary, Delivery to the Board of teachers to create teachers to create teachers to create teachers to create middle and high school current collaboration time at additional additional additional additional collaboration times to the Board each level. annually collaboration time. collaboration time. collaboration time. collaboration time. Page X24 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting Measurement Points Detail 1 -Yr (2011 -12) 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 Goal 3 Clear /transparent monthly updates from the Monthly financial updates superintendent at Board will be provided at board Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Meetings and posted on the meetings. website The District will hold at least Increased community two (2) budget process engagement in the meetings on a yearly basis. Meetings and Meetings and Meetings and Meetings and Constituents will also have development of the annual survey survey survey survey district budget the opportunity to provide input through a web survey. Implementation of a variety of new technology will take place including: on -line staff training, Optimizon, JCI, Identify and Identify and Identify and Identify and Expand use of technology to Google Docs, EdZapp, new implement implement implement implement improve district efficiencies student information system, efficiencies efficiencies efficiencies efficiencies Data warehouse, on -line credit recovery, and credit card payments. Annually convene the district Superintendent Superintendent Superintendent Superintendent The District Long Range long-range facility planning report on annual report on annual report on annual report on annual Facility Plan will be reviewed committee to review and update & Board update & Board update & Board update & Board and updated annually update our plan. approval approval approval approval Bi- monthly district reports (include website, Bond fund and project communication in board reports will be completed 100% 100% meetings and school 100% of the time. newsletters) Page 125 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting Measurement Points Detail 1 -Yr (2011 -12) 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 Goal 3 Quarterly school inspections Con't are conducted by a trained team and reports sent to each Facility reports are 100% 100% 100% 100% facility with commendations completed 100% of the time and recommendations for improvement Monitor and report the effects The District will achieve a of guidelines on energy usage reduction of energy usage of 2% 4% 4% 6% on a quarterly basis 2% as compared to 2010 -11 baseline data. Provide the school 3 district facilities will community access to provide access to technology 5 6 8 10 technology resources resources. 65% of community members Bi- annual community survey surveyed will indicate the 67% 67% 69% 69% district does a good or very good job of educating students. Board meetings Board meetings Board meetings accessible to dates /times /location and will be available Review on -line Review on -line Review on -line the public agenda will be clearly for public review communicated to the public. on -line. Semi - annual town hall/ Town hall meetings will attract 150 participants 200 participants 250 participants 250 participants listening sessions 100 participants P age 126 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting Measurement Points Detail 1 -Yr (2011 -12) 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 Goal 4 The District will review the The District will Plan developed for Board Technology Action Research review and approval projects and implement a plan modify the for scaling up those which were District successful. technology plan by June 30, 2013. Annual investigation of new Board adopted technology Adopted Adopted Adopted Adopted programs and revision of plan if plan, reviewed and revised by required June 30 each year. The District's yearly staff development plan will be District staff development plan presented to the Board by Presented Presented Presented Presented September 1 of each year. 80% of trained District staff Staff evaluations of will report satisfaction with professional development their technology professional 80% 80% 80% 80% activities development when surveyed. Each Board approved curriculum adoption will Board adoption of revised specify the integration of curriculum documents technology into the Integration Integration Integration Integration curriculum. The newly completed teacher Principal evaluation of evaluation Teacher Teacher teachers utilizing integrated process will Evaluation Evaluation technology in content areas include evaluation of technology use. Page 127 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting Measurement Points Detail 1 -Yr (2011 -12) 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 Goal 4 By June 30, 2012, 30 students Con't Annual report to the Board will have participated in the regarding online participation district's on -line instruction 75 125 200 250 program The District will report that Semi-annual report from 75% of their students have school principals to access to technology and 85% 90% 95% 100% superintendent connectivity by June 30, 2012. 95% of Handbook signed by all A student technology students /parents students /parents and handbook will be in will sign the published / available on web development during the student 98% 100% 100% site 2011 -12 school year. technology handbook by February 1, 2013 A plan which would replace A plan will be Plan developed for Board textbooks with technology presented to the Begin textbook Continue approval. resources will be in Board for replacement textbook development during the approval by replacement 2011 -12 school year. March 1, 2013. Page 1 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting Measurement Points Detail 1 -Yr (2011 -12) 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 Goal 5 On the annual Student survey, Annual survey of staff /students 80% of students will report that 80% 80% 80% 80% they feel safe at school. 100% of schools will report Development and teaching of students have received Deliver curriculum Deliver curriculum Deliver curriculum Deliver curriculum online safety guidelines instruction on safe technology use by October 2012. Semi - annual reports to the 100% of District schools will superintendent of each school's report implementation of the 100% 100% 100% 100% implementation efforts EBIS program with fidelity Superintendent monitors reports Incidences of bullying and ° from schools on bullying / harassment will decline by 2 /0 4% 6% 8% 10% harassment incidents as compared to 2010 -11 baseline data Quarterly school inspections are conducted by a trained team and reports sent to each Completed Completed Completed Completed school with commendations Completed inspections inspections inspections inspections inspections and recommendations for improvement On a bi- annual secondary student survey 80% of Bi- annual student and staff respondents will report feeling 80% 80% 80% 80% survey cared about by at least one teacher or other adult at their school. I 29 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting Glossary of Terms Accountability Responsibility. Having the obligation to report, explain or justify. ACT The ACT test assesses high school students' educational development toward rigorous college and career readiness standards in English, mathematics, reading, science, and writing. All 11th graders in TTSD are assessed on the ACT which results in feedback to students, families and teachers regarding a student's current skill levels and the knowledge and skills that need to be mastered next in order to be on track for completing college -level work. All 8, 9, and 10th grade students in TTSD are also assessed with ACT pre -tests ( "Explore" and "Plan" tests). AYP Adequate Yearly Progress. This is a measurement defined by the United States federal No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Act that allows the U.S. Department of Education to determine how every public school and school district in the country is performing academically according to results on standardized tests. College and Career Readiness College Ready. College today means much more than just pursuing a four -year degree at a university. Being "college ready" means being prepared for any postsecondary education or training experience, including study at two- and four -year institutions leading to a postsecondary credential (i.e. a certificate, license, Associates or Bachelor's degree). Being ready for college means that a high school graduate has the knowledge and skills necessary to qualify for and succeed in entry- level, credit - bearing college courses without the need for remedial coursework. Career Ready. In today's economy, a "career" is not just a job. A career provides a family- sustaining wage and pathways to advancement and requires postsecondary training or education. A job may be obtained with only a high school diploma, but offers no guarantee of advancement or mobility. Being ready for a career means that a high school graduate has the English and mathematics knowledge and skills needed to qualify for and succeed in the postsecondary job training and/or education necessary for their chosen career (i.e. technical/vocational program, community college, apprenticeship or significant on-the-job training). Source: Achieve American Diploma Project Network Culture The set of shared attitudes, values, goals and practices that characterize and institution, organization or group. Cultural Competence Cultural competence refers to a set of defined values, principles, attitudes, and behaviors that enable staff to work effectively cross - culturally. Cultural competence means having the capacity to (1) value diversity, (2) conduct self - assessment, (3) manage the dynamics of difference, (4) acquire and institutionalize cultural knowledge and (5) adapt to diversity and the cultural contexts of the communities we serve. Culturally competent organizations incorporate the above in all aspects of policy- making, administration, practice, service delivery and involve systematically consumers, key stakeholders and communities. Data Point A measure of performance used to evaluate the success of an activity EBIS Each school in the Tigard- Tualatin School District has an Effective Behavior and Instructional Support (EBIS) Team which meets at least every six weeks for three distinct purposes: 1) to review school -wide behavior and academic data in order to evaluate the effectiveness of core programs; 2) to screen and identify students needing additional academic and/or behavior support; 3) to plan, implement and modify interventions for students using standardized, data -driven decision - rules. If a student continues to struggle despite a series of research -based interventions, the EBIS team may make a formal referral for a special education evaluation. Engagement Reaching out to people in ways that involve and interest them, that are meaningful and make them feel connected; developing true, lasting partnerships. Equity refers to fairness, which does not always put it in line with "equality." Educational equity is an operational principle an educator operates under to provide whatever level of support is needed to enable a student to learn and succeed. It acknowledges that all individuals have a right to basic literacy and math skills; and that achievement should be based on ability and effort, not a person's gender, ethnicity, socio- economic or other status. It is further defmed as raising the achievement of all students while narrowing the gaps between the highest- and lowest - performing students, and eliminating the racial predictability and disproportionality of which student groups occupy the highest and lowest achievement categories. Ethnicity refers to shared cultural practices, perspectives, and distinctions that set apart one group of people from another. Ethnicity is what ties you to your race or culture. Formative Assessment is a range of formal and informal assessment procedures employed by teachers during the learning process in order to modify teaching and learning activities to improve student progress. Highly Qualified Teacher "Highly qualified" is a specific term defmed by the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 (NCLB). The law outlines a list of minimum requirements both in content knowledge and teaching skills to meet the "highly qualified" status. The law requires teachers to have a bachelor's degree and full state certification and to demonstrate content knowledge in the subjects they teach. Under NCLB, states decide what is necessary for certification and for determining subject -matter competency. Rules surrounding the requirements for highly qualified teachers continue to be developed and refined. Indicator A measure of performance used to evaluate the success of an activity. Milestone Key achievement indicators toward a goal. In this plan, milestones are used to refer to important points along the path to achieving the desired outcomes in the five strategy areas. Mission A clear and succinct representation of an organization's purpose for existence. The mission statement should guide the actions of the organization, spell out its overall goal, provide a sense of direction, and guide decision making. NCLB The No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 is a United States Act of Congress concerning the education of children in public schools. It supports standards -based education reform, which is based on the belief that setting high standards and establishing measurable goals can improve individual outcomes in education. The Act requires states to develop assessments in basic skills to be given to all students in certain grades, if those states are to receive federal funding for schools. Objective Purpose or goal. Something that one's efforts or actions are intended to accomplish. Outcome A final product or end result. In this plan, outcomes are the key results we hope to achieve within the five strategy areas. Postsecondary Refers to education beyond high school that is not compulsory (required). Race is a socially constructed term referring to a variety of physical attributes including but not limited to skin and eye color, hair texture, and bone structure. SAT The SAT is a college entrance exam accepted by several hundred colleges across the United States as part of the admissions process. The possible scores on the Critical Reading, Mathematics, and Writing sections range from 200 -800, with a total possible score of 2400. Page 131 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting Secondary "Secondary" in the educational setting refers to the upper grade levels. In the Tigard - Tualatin School District, secondary schools are our middle and high schools, grades 7 -12. (We typically refer to grades K -3 as "primary" and grades 4 -6 as "intermediate. ") Socio Economic Status (SES) An economic and sociological combined total measure of a person's work experience and of an individual's or family's economic and social position relative to others, based on income, education and occupation. Stakeholder Any person, group, organization or system who affects or can be affected by an organization's actions. Strategy A plan of action designed to achieve a particular goal. In this plan, the strategies represent the key areas in which work will be done to reach the student achievement objective. Summative Assessment are assessments given after teaching typically used to gauge student learning for the purpose of evaluating, grading, or summarizing student performance. Vision The vision statement describes the circumstances or environment in which the organization would like to operate. P age 132 Our Map to Success: Look to the Future, Perform Today - APPROVED 1/23/2012 Board Meeting SUPPLE ENTAL PACKET FOR 1 ,' (DATE OF MEETING) TIGARD - TUALATIN SCHOOL DISTRICT ENROLLMENT FORECAST UPDATE 2012 -13 TO 2021 -22 • Portland State UNIVERSITY Population Research Center. DECEMBER, 2011 TIGARD - TUALATIN SCHOOL DISTRICT ENROLLMENT FORECAST UPDATE 2012 -13 TO 2021 -22 Prepared By Population Research Center Portland State University DECEMBER, 2011 Project Staff: Charles Rynerson, Research Associate, co- Principal Investigator Vivian Siu, Research Assistant, co- Principal Investigator Ryan Dann, Graduate Research Assistant CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Enrollment Trends 1 Potential Residential Development 2 Enrollment Forecast 2 Individual School Forecasts 3 INTRODUCTION 5 POPULATION AND HOUSING TRENDS, 1990 to 2010 7 HOUSING AND ENROLLMENT 13 ENROLLMENT TRENDS 17 Private and Home School Enrollment and District "Capture Rate" 19 MITCH Charter School 20 Hispanic Enrollment Growth 20 Enrollment at Individual Schools 21 ENROLLMENT FORECASTS 25 Potential Residential Development 25 District -wide Long -range Forecast Methodology 25 Population Forecast 28 District -wide Enrollment Forecast 30 Individual School Forecasts 34 FORECAST ERROR AND UNCERTAINTY 37 APPENDIX A: ENROLLMENT AND CAPACITY PROFILES FOR INDIVIDUAL SCHOOLS APPENDIX B: 2000 AND 2010 CENSUS PROFILE FOR THE DISTRICT TABLES AND CHARTS Table 1. Historic and Forecast Enrollment, Tigard - Tualatin School District 3 Table 2. City and Region Population, 1990, 2000, and 2010 7 Table 3. TTSD Housing and Household Characteristics, 1990, 2000, and 2010 8 Table 4. Population, Households, and Housing Units by Elementary Area, 2010 9 Table 5. TTSD New Single Family Homes by Attendance Area 10 Table 6. TTSD New Multiple Family Homes by Attendance Area 11 Table 7. Number of TTSD Students per Home, Fall 2011, by Housing Type 14 Table 8. TTSD Enrollment History, 2001 -02 to 2011 -12 18 Table 9. Hispanic Enrollment History, Tigard - Tualatin School District 22 Table 10. Enrollment History for Individual Schools, 2006 -07 to 2011 -12 23 Table 11. Estimated and Forecast Births, Tigard - Tualatin School District 27 Table 12. Population by Age Group, Tigard - Tualatin School District, 1990 to 2020 29 Table 13. Estimated and Forecast Capture Rates, Tigard - Tualatin School District 31 Table 14. Grade Progression Rates, Tigard - Tualatin S. D. History and Forecast 31 Table 15. TTSD, Enrollment Forecasts, 2012 -13 to 2021 -22 33 Table 16. Enrollment Forecasts for Individual Schools, 2012 -13 to 2021 -22 35 Table 17 Facility Capacity and Enrollment, 2011 -12 and 2021 -22 36 Table 18. Fall 2011 Enrollment Compared to Previous Forecasts by Grade Level 38 Table 19. Fall 2011 Enrollment Compared to Previous Forecasts by School 39 Chart 1. TTSD Students per Single Family Home, Fall 2011 15 Chart 2. Tigard - Tualatin S.D., Net Migration, 1990 to 2020 28 Chart 3. TTSD Kindergarten Enrollment and Birth Cohorts 30 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district -wide and individual school enrollments for the 2012 -13 to 2021 -22 school years. Enrollment Trends The Tigard - Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,366 students in Fall 2011, a decrease of 27 students (0.2 percent) from Fall 2010. This is the third consecutive year of K -12 enrollment loss, but the change was small compared with the loss of 128 students in 2009 -10 and 74 students in 2010 -11. District elementary schools experienced a net loss of 73 students (1.3 percent) in 2011 -12, and 202 students (3.5 percent) for the three year period since 2008 -09. Middle grades to to ( -8 ) gained 51 students (1.8 percent) in 2011 -12, mostly due to a larger sixth grade replacing a smaller eighth grade. District -wide enrollment in high school grades 9 -12 was essentially stable, decreasing by just five students (0.1 percent). Two significant factors contributed to the downward enrollment trend. Most significant, the Portland region had a net loss of about 60,000 jobs between September 2008 and September 2011, slowing migration to the area and preventing the depressed housing market from recovering. The District's typical enrollment gains due to an inflow of families with children have not occurred for the past three years; there has been a small net loss due to more children leaving than entering District schools. Second, MITCH Charter School, which is not included in the historic or forecast enrollment figures in this report, expanded by 100 students in 2010 -11, adding grades 6 -8 and one additional elementary class. Many of the new students at MITCH would have been enrolled at District -run schools if not for the expansion. Prior to 2009 -10, total K -12 enrollment in the TTSD grew in 20 out of 21 years. New housing development contributed to enrollment growth throughout that period. Sustained growth in elementary enrollment from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s and the more recent growth in high school enrollment were influenced by the rapid increase in births caused by the "echo" of 1 the baby boom. Since the late 1990s, a growing Latino population has also been a major contributor to the District's enrollment growth. Potential Residential Development The previous enrollment forecast report, published in December 2010, included a section on potential residential development, summarizing capacity in general terms for different jurisdictions within the District. More specific capacity and potential student generation figures were presented for the West Bull Mountain area, added to the Urban Growth Boundary in 2002 but not yet developed. The current study uses a simpler, but more objective approach to district -wide capacity made possible through the use of parcel -based residential capacity data used in Metro's current regional forecast allocation.' Metro's residential capacity databases indicate that there is capacity within the TTSD for almost 4,000 housing units on vacant residential land. About 6,500 additional units could be built on land that is currently developed or partially developed. There are challenges with both types of development. Vacant land may require new services and infrastructure and if it is currently unincorporated it may need to be annexed by an existing city or included in new or expanded service districts. Infill and redevelopment is more likely if the existing improvement is of low value compared with the land. For example, a small older home on a two acre parcel is a candidate for a new subdivision. Enrollment Forecast Little or no K -12 growth is expected for 2012 -13 due to the current slow job growth and high unemployment rate. However, over the 10 year forecast period, K -12 enrollment is forecast to increase by 949 students (eight percent), reversing the decline of the past three years and exceeding the overall increase of 601 students experienced in the 10 years between 2001 -02 and 2011 -12. 1 The underlying data was provided by Metro, but results included in this study are estimates prepared by the Portland State University Population Research Center. 2 K -5 enrollments initially fall in 2012 -13, but nearly recover to their 2011 -12 level by 2014 -15 and begin to grow significantly after 2016 -17. For the 10 year period, K -5 enrollments grow by 497 students (nine percent). Moderate growth is expected for secondary enrollments throughout the forecast period, amounting to 194 middle school and 258 high school students (both seven percent growth rates) over the 10 year period. Table 1 compares the historic and forecast growth for the District by five year increment. More detailed forecasts for the District may be found in Table 15 of this report. Table 1 Historic and Forecast Enrollment Tigard- Tualatin School District Actual Forecast 2001 -02 1 2006 -07 2011 -12 2016 -17 2021 -22 District Total 11,765 12,307 `•. 12,366 12,668 13,315 1 5 year change 542 I 59 302 647 5 % 0% 2% 5% K -5 1 5,394 5,671 I 5,569 5,636 6,066 ( 277 102 67 430 5 year change i 5% -2% 1% 8% 6-8 2,735 2,796 2,850 2,927 3,044 5 year change 61 54 77 117 2 2% € 2% 3% 4% 9 -12 3,636 1 3,840 I 3,947 4,105 4,205 5 year change 204 107 I 158 100 6%* ,.._. 3 % ( 4% 2% Population Research Center, PSU. December2011. Individual School Forecasts We evaluated Metro's residential capacity data for each school attendance area. Among elementary schools, Alberta Rider's attendance area contains the greatest amount of buildable residential land, followed by Durham, Metzger, Woodward, and Deer Creek. These five schools account for about 90 percent of the vacant residential land in the District. Alberta Rider and Woodward also include the TTSD portion of the West Bull Mountain area. Assumptions about future changes in kindergarten enrollment and future net migration are based on past trends for each school as well as future residential growth potential. 3 Middle school enrollment growth is greatest at Twality due to growth in its feeder elementary schools as well as potential new housing development. Tigard High School's enrollment forecast is fairly stable, while more growth is forecast for Tualatin High School after 2013 -14 as a consequence of the growth at its feeder middle school, Twality. Table 16 in this report presents the enrollment forecasts for each school, grouped by school level (elementary, middle, and high). Individual school forecasts are also presented in Appendix A. 4 INTRODUCTION For the sixth consecutive year, the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared enrollment forecasts for the Tigard - Tualatin School District (TTSD). This report updates TTSD enrollment history and local area population, housing, and economic trends, and presents new forecasts for a 10 year horizon from 2012 -13 to 2021 -22. Information sources include the U.S. Census Bureau, birth data from the Oregon Center for Health Statistics, city and county population estimates produced by PRC, housing development data from the cities and counties, and residential capacity data from Metro. The District serves the cities of Tigard, Tualatin, Durham and King City, and portions of unincorporated Washington County, notably the Metzger and Bull Mountain communities. Most of the District is within Washington County; a portion in Clackamas County (to the east of SW 65 Ave. in the City of Tualatin) contains less than three percent of the District's total population. Following this introduction are sections presenting recent population, housing, and enrollment trends within the District. Next are the results of the district -wide enrollment forecasts and individual school forecasts, and a description of the methodology used to produce them. The final section contains a brief discussion of the nature and accuracy of forecasts. Appendix A contains a one page profile for each school showing its enrollment history, enrollment forecasts, and capacity, and Appendix B contains a one page census profile for the District. 2 The northern edge of the City of Tigard is served by the Beaver School District, and small portions of the City of Tualatin are served by the West Linn - Wilsonville and Sherwood School Districts. 5 POPULATION AND HOUSING TRENDS, 1990 to 2010 Between 2000 and 2010, total population within the TTSD grew by 16 percent, from 72,164 persons to 83,457. This growth rate was similar to the Portland metropolitan area's 15 percent growth in the decade. More than 97 percent of TTSD residents live within the Washington County portion of the District (81,311 persons in 2010). Clackamas County accounts for the rest (2,146 persons in 2010). The District's rate of population growth during the 2000s was slightly less than the 19 percent growth experienced by Washington County overall, but greater than the 11 percent growth rate in Clackamas County. With the exception of King City, which annexed land and had several new subdivisions, numeric and percentage growth in all of the areas shown in Table 2 was smaller in the 2000s than in the 1990s. The District added 11,293 residents between 2000 and 2010, compared with growth of 20,511 residents between 1990 and 2000. Table 2 City and Region Population, 1990, 2000, and 2010 Avg. Annual Growth Rate 1990 2000 2010 1990 -2000 2000 -2010 City of Durham 748 1,382 1,351 i 6.3% i -0.2% Cityof King City 2,060 1,949 3,111 -0.6% 4.8% City of Tiga rd 29,435 1 41,223 48,035 J 3.4% 1.5% Tigard Tualatin 51,653 I ! City of T u a l a t i n 14,664 22,791 26,054 4.5% 1.3% 72,164 83,457 3.4% 1.5% Clackamas County 278,850 338,391 375,992 2.0% 1.1% Washington County ; 311,554 445,342 ? 529,710 3.6% 1.8% Portland- Vancouver - 1,523,741 1,927,881 2,226,009 / 2.4% 1.4% Beaverton MSA 1. King City's population growth includes the annexation of 288 residents between 2000 and 2010. 2. Population of the entire city of Tigard. About 84.5% of the city's population is within the 773D. Population growth includes the annexation of 1,205 residents between 1990 and 2000 and 1,119 residents between 2000 and 2010. 3. Population of the entire city of Tualatin. About 95% of the city's population is within theTTSD. Population growth includes the annexation of 101 residents between 1990 and 2000 and 53 residents between 2000 and 2010. 4. Portland - Vancouver - Beaverton MSA consists of Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, Yam hill (OR) and Clark and Skamania (WA) Counties. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990, 2000 and 2010 censuses. Aggregated to 775D boundary by PSU Population Research Center. 7 Tables 3 and 4 present additional 2010 characteristics for TTSD based on the block level census data that was published in August 2011. Totals for 2010 are based on our aggregation of census block data to approximate the District and elementary attendance area boundaries. The boundaries used to compile the data are consistent with the tax assessors' parcel files and the District's maps. Data for TTSD published by the Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Education show a smaller population and fewer households due to inaccurate boundaries used in the Census Bureau's geographic system. Efforts are now underway to improve the Census Bureau's school district boundary files. Table 3 Tigard - Tualatin School District Housing and Household Characteristics, 1990, 2000, and 2010 10 ear Cha e 1990 2000 2010 '90 -'00 '00 -'10 Housing Units l 22,467 a 30831 35228 8364 4397 . Households 21,317 1 29 097 33 454 7 780 4 357 Households with children <18 j 7,097 10,090 11,153 2,993 1,063 share of total 33% 35% 33% Households with no children <18 14,220 19,007 22,301 3,294 share of total 67% 65% 67% Household Population 51,391 71,714 82,949 20,323 11,235 Persons per Household 1 2.41 1 2.46 2.48 0.05 0.01 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990, 2000, and 2010 Censuses; data aggregated to 7TSD boundary by Portland State University Population Research Center. Metro's Regional Land Information System (RLIS) combines information from county tax assessor records with spatial features, enabling the tax lot information to be organized by various geographic areas. In Table 5 recently built single family homes are tabulated by current (2011 -12) attendance area and year built. TTSD maintains information about multiple family developments approved within the District's boundaries, and this information has been tabulated in previous enrollment forecast reports. We supplemented the District's information with information from various government and commercial sources to determine the year each development was completed and verified the number of units. Multiple family developments were assigned to current attendance areas and are tabulated in Table 6. 8 Table 4 Tigard- Tualatin School District Population, Households, and Housing Units by Elementary Area, 2010 Census __.,_______ - Population Households Share - oil Popu� T otal [ With 1+ i HHs with lation in Persons House - tt persons < persons < House- per H ouse - Elementary Area Total Age 5 -17 < Age 5 holds € A 18 I Age 18 holds hold Alberta Rider' 8,109 1,398 1 528 3,370 1,052 31% I 8,019 2.38 Bridgeport 6,935 1,275 591 2,715 975 36% 6,931 2.55 Byrom 6,799 1,493 405 2,382 1,002 i 42% 6,782 2.85 CF. Tigard E 8,072 2,906 allni 40% 7,987 2.75 Deer Creek2 1 8,479 1,499 i 559 3,450 i 1,134 33% 8,419 2.44 Durham 8,891 1,496 646 € 3,594 1,220 8,882 2.47 Metzger 9,475 1,370 803 3,909 1,207 31% 9,371 2.40 Templeton 12,139 1,636 660 5,640 1,307 23% 12,041 2.13 Tualatin 1 8,029 1,489 587 3,212 1,147 1 36% 8,010 2.49 Woodward 6,529 1,367 393_ 2,276 946 I 42% 6,507 2.86 TTSD Total ( 83,457 14,645 5,744 , 33,454 11,153 s 33% 82,949 2A8 Housing Units _ Total Percent Housing Vacancy Owner Renter Owner Elementary Area Units Occupied Vacant Rate Occupied Occupied # Occupied Alberta Rider' 3,603 3,370 233 1 6.5% 2,273 1,097 67% Bridgeport 2,908 2,715 1 193 6.6% , 1,268 1,447 47% Byrom 2,478 2,382 96 79% CF. Tigard 3,009 2,906 103 3.4% 1,923 983 66% DeerCreek 3,450 199 5.5% 2,378 1,072 69% Durham 3,731 II 137 3.7% 2,109 1,485 59% Metzger I 4,170 3,909 261 6.3% 2,083 1,826 53% Templeton 5,968 5,640 328 5.5% 2,950 2,690 52% Tualatin 3,372 3,212 160 4.7% 1,668 1,544 52% Woodward 2,340 2,276 64 2.7% 2,008 ` 268 88% TTSD Total 35,228 ! 33,454 1,774 5.0% 20,544 12,910 61% 1. Alberta Rider's housing stock includes over 1,100 units of senior housing. 2. Deer Creek's housing stock includes over 450 units of senior housing. 3. Templeton's housing stock includes over 1,200 units of senior housing. Source: 2010 Census, Summary File 1, census block data aggregated to approximate TISD attendance areas by PSU, Population Research Center. 9 Table 5 Tigard - Tualatin School District New Single Family Homes By Attendance Area Year Built Elementa Area* 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total Alberta Rider 11 �11 la l 137 0 00 • 0 14 729 . 150 Brid.e•ort B ° 50 111 MI 1 3 5 24 18 387 .. �. 343 ... gaga nd 40 Deer Creek IMIMMIMIIIIIMIII 70 40 118 INMII 53 IIEEMIIIIIM 666 Durham 11101.11EINIMMINIMMINEINEMEMINIMINIMI 16 359 Metzger WU 30 OM 20 _5 8 255__ Templeton 19 IMIEMINIMI 7 231 _En Tualatin NM 150 IMMINIMINOMMI 89 Ilrall 10 NM 1 544 N Woodward WallirlillinliMIMEIMINIEM 8 455 District 540 Millinli 603 77 1 4119 Middle School Area Fowler 233 98 122 314 100 15 59 97 40 1097 Hazel brook 83 220 182 138 136 135 99 34 30 �� 1063 Twa I i ty 224 293 157 151 135 398 298 192 52 1959 District 540 611 461 603 371 548 456 323 77 4119 Hi _ h School Area" Tigard 321 218 171 346 I 177 150 71 180 52 41 1727 Tualatin 219 393 290 257 194 398 385 143 77 36 2392 District 540 611 461 603 371 548 l 456 323 129 • 77 . 4119 *Note: Current (2011 -12) attendance area. Source: Metro Regional Land Information System, November 2011; tax lot information compiled by Metro from county tax assessors information includes year built and land use( "SFR'). Compiled by TTSD attendance area by Population Research Center, P5U. Table 6 Tigard - Tualatin School District New Multiple Family Units By Attendance Area _4 ..�_ Year Built 2000 -09 Elementary Area* 2000 2001 2002 2003 yY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total Alberta Rider mi llialli 4 4 Bridgeport 15 15 Byrom C.F. Tigard 0 11 11 1 1 1 1 1 ' Deer Creek -11111111111111M 264 Durham . .. 42 Metzpe r 32 19 13 158 Templeton 108 55 247 Tualatin 240 10 250 Woodward 1111111111=111111111 0 F District I 255 10 293 46 0 140 _ 74 »» 116 33 13 980 Middle School Area* Fowler IHIIIIIIII 32 IllrenlirillIll111 13 158 Hazelbrook 255 10 MAL 529 Twa l i ty 108 55 33 293 District 255 10 0 140 74 11111101411111111 33 13 High School Area* Tina rd Ini 4 140 74 ... 33 13 447 Tualatin 10 '° � 533 District,,. _ 2g5 10 anill 46 0 74 33 13 980 *Note: Current (2011 -12) attendance area. Source: Multiple family development information compiled by 7T 5D, supplemented by information from various sources to determine year that each development was completed. Compiled byTTSD attendance area by Population Research Center, PSU. HOUSING AND ENROLLMENT How many children are expected to live in future new homes and attend TTSD schools? Because each development is unique, the number of resident public school students per home may depend on factors including affordability, proximity to schools, the number of bedrooms, and the presence or absence of child - friendly amenities within the development and in the surrounding neighborhood. However, district -wide average student generation rates may be useful as a baseline for estimating potential student generation from planned and proposed developments. Furthermore, measuring the number of students in older homes helps to explain the "aging in place" phenomenon that can lead to enrollment losses as families age. Using data from Metro, we compiled a current housing inventory in a spatial file based on parcels that differentiates single family homes, apartments, condominiums, and manufactured home parks. We then combined this file with student address points from Fall 2011 in order to quantify the number of students by housing type. For District homes built between 2000 and 2009, the average number of TTSD K -12 students per single family home was 0.55, or just over one student in every two homes. The rates are within the range of rates that we have measured for new single family homes in recent studies for other area school districts. Homes built in the 1990s had a lower K -12 average of 0.52 students, and these homes, now 11 to 21 years old, are home to slightly older families — fewer elementary and more high school children. Homes built before 1990 have an average of just 0.36 TTSD K -12 students per home. Table 7 includes these rates by age of single family home as well as rates for other types of homes. In the most recent decade, a growing number of lots in new subdivisions are designed for attached or nearly attached ( "skinny ") row homes. Several hundred of these homes on smaller lots had been built by 2009, generating fewer TTSD students per home (0.22) than detached homes built at about the same time (0.60). Among other types of housing, rental s For example, 0.66 in the North Clackamas School District, 0.48 in the Oregon City School District, 0.84 in the Sherwood School District, and 0.57 in the Canby School District. 13 apartments had higher student generation rates (0.36) than condominium units (0.13) or manufactured homes (0.19). Table 7 Average Number of TTSD Students per Home, Fall 2011 By Housing Type and Grade Level Grade Level K-5 6-8 9-12 K -12 Single family homes built 2000 -2009 0.29 0.12 0.14 I 0.55 detached homes built 2000 -2009 0.32 0.13 0.15 0.60 row homes built 2000 -2009 0.10 0.06 0.06 I 0.22 Single family homes built 1990 -1999 _ 0.19 0.12 0.18 0.49 Single family homes built before 1990 0.15 0.08 0.13 0.36 Condominiums 0.06 0.03 0.04 0.13 Apartments 0.18 0.08 0.09 0.35 Manufactured homes in M.H. Parks 0.08 0.05 0.06 0.19 Source: Data compiled by PSU-PRC, using 77SD student data and geographic shapefiles from Metro RLIS. Excludes senior housing developments. Includes students attending district charters and special programs. These same Fall 2011 student generation rates are shown in Chart 1, illustrating the "aging in place" that occurs in single family homes. On average, the homes that are 11 -21 years old have fewer young children than homes that are less than 11 years old. As the older children graduate from high school, the homes built in the 1990s will soon have even fewer K -12 residents, much like the homes built before 1990 that are now more than 20 years old. Although younger families may eventually occupy the older homes, owner - occupied homes turn over to new owners very gradually, and the new owners will represent a diverse mix of households that may not include as many families with children as the newer tract homes. 14 Chart1 TTSD Students per Single Family Home, Fall 2011 0.35 ❑ Built 2000 -2009 0.30 Built 1990 -1999 E 0.25 - - -- • Built before 1990 . 0 x a 0.20 - - -- N 3 0.15 - -- p b 0.10 - - - -s' - -- 0.05 - - -- 0.00 K -5 6 -8 9-12 Grade Level 15 ENROLLMENT TRENDS The Tigard - Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,366 students in Fall 2011, a decrease of 27 students (0.2 percent) from Fall 2010. This is the third consecutive year of K -12 enrollment loss, but the change was small compared with the loss of 128 students in 2009 -10 and 74 students in 2010 -11. District elementary schools experienced a net loss of 73 students (1.3 percent) in 2011 -12, and 202 students (3.5 percent) for the three year period since 2008 -09. Middle grades to to (6 -8 ) gained 51 students (1.8 percent) in 2011 -12, mostly due to a larger sixth grade replacing a smaller eighth grade. District -wide enrollment in high school grades 9 -12 was essentially stable, decreasing by just five students (0.1 percent). Two significant factors contributed to the downward enrollment trend. Most significant, the Portland region had a net loss of about 60,000 jobs between September 2008 and September 2011, slowing migration to the area and preventing the depressed housing market from recovering. The District's typical enrollment gains due to an inflow of families with children have not occurred for the past three years; there has been a small net loss due to more children leaving than entering District schools. Second, MITCH Charter School, which is not included in the historic or forecast enrollment figures in this report, expanded by 100 students in 2010 -11, adding grades 6 -8 and one additional elementary class. Many of the new students at MITCH would have been enrolled at District -run schools if not for the expansion. Prior to 2009 -10, total K -12 enrollment in the TTSD grew in 20 out of 21 years. New housing development contributed to enrollment growth throughout that period. Sustained growth in elementary enrollment from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s and the growth in high school enrollment in the 2000s were influenced by the rapid increase in births caused by the "echo" of the baby boom. Since the late 1990s, a growing Latino population has also been a major contributor to the District's enrollment gains. Table 8 summarizes the enrollment history for the District by grade level annually for the past 10 years, from 2001 -02 to 2011 -12. As shown in the table, prior to the decline of the past three years the District typically added between 100 and 200 students and experienced growth rates of one to two percent each year. Growth for the entire ten year period was 601 students, or five percent. 17 Table 8 Tigard - Tualatin School District, Enrollment History, 2001 -02 to 2011 -12 Grade 2001 -02 2002 -03 2003 -04 2004-05 2005 -06 2006 -07 2007 -08 2008 -09 2009 -10 2010 -11 2011 -12 K 1112310111131.1111M 807 NM 906 860 924 MIN 902 877 1 901 909 906 921 900 990 896 942 944 905 1,017 1,010 IMMIE 949 885 _ 3 889 *: 920 897 964 903 1,009 1,007 909 935 4 902 906 913 940 931 963 919 970 1,001 919 5 1 112=11=1111=111=11 900 IIICMIIIIMM 990 11131111E11 1,011 _... 6 ilEnli 1,008 �� 926 1113.1 910 • ' IIIIMIIIMIMMI 904 967 910 .. 7 :•' 990 945 950 929 981 •.• 9 981 910 8 Ina 915 1,003 969 957 936 9 MM. 952 971 1,066 992 1,015 976 IIN 1,028 1006 10 977 951 952 1,033 1,015 1,006 951 1014 11 WM 891 111=1101111 910 1,007 ilimmemina llnallaaalarni 937 co 12 111311011M1 844 890 El 890 MILIZIN 988 US • 0 0 _ 20 2 Total Mal= 11,810 12,010 110=1 12,307 12,460 IMMUMMINIZELUE 12,366 1151 -103 200 123 174 MIN -128 -74 -27 Annual change -0.9% 1.7% 1.0% 1.4% -1.0% -0.6% -0.2% K -S Inel 5 380 11521111M 5 474 5 671 5 672 IMMIIIMMIll 5 569 6 -8 2 735 2 834 MIMI 2 796 2,855 2,891 2 922 2,799 2850 9 -12 3 636 3 699 IIEMIIIMMII 3 827 3 840 3 933 3 933 3 858 3,952 3,947 5 Year Change: 5 Year Change: 10 Year Change: 2001 -02 to 2006 -07 _ 2006 -07 to 2011 -12 2001 -02 to 2011 -12 Change Pct. Change Pct. Change Pct. K -5 277 5% -102 -2% 175 3% 6-8 61 2% 54 2% 115 4% 9 -12 204 6% 107 3% 311 1 9% Total 542 5% 59 D% 601 5% * Note: "US "are ungraded secondary students, included in grade 9 -12 totals. Sources: Oregon Department of Education; T7SD Private and Home School Enrollment and District "Capture Rate" The best source for private school enrollment by residence is census data. The 2000 Census and the more recent American Community Survey (ACS) included questions about school enrollment by level and by type (public or private). In 2000, 10 percent of K -12 students living in the District were enrolled in private schools. The ACS estimate from surveys conducted from 2008 to 2010 indicates that seven percent of TTSD K -12 students are enrolled in private schools. However, the ACS has a smaller sample size than the census long form, with larger margins of error. Another difference between TTSD enrollment and child population can be attributed to home schooling. Home schooled students living in the District are required to register with the Northwest Regional Educational Service District (NWRESD), though the statistics kept by the NRESD are not precise because students who move out of the area are not required to drop their registration. Students who enroll in public schools after being registered as home schooled are dropped from the home school registry. In 2010 -11 there were 271 TTSD residents registered as home schooled. This accounts for less than two percent of total TTSD K -12 residents. The number of home - schooled students has remained in the range between 200 and 300 each year since 2000. For purposes of forecasting enrollment, the ratios of kindergarten and first grade public school enrollment to overall population in the corresponding ages are very important. These ratios are called "capture rates." Once a student is enrolled in the public schools in first grade, it is very likely that they will continue to be enrolled in subsequent grades, unless their family moves out of the District. Comparing TTSD kindergarten and 1 grade enrollment in 1999 -00 and 2000 -01 to the 2000 Census and in 2009 -10 and 2010 -11 to the 2010 Census reveals little or no change in the District's "capture rates." In both periods, TTSD enrollment accounted for about 78 to 79 percent of the kindergarten -age population and 84 percent of the 1 grade age population. That means that about 22 percent of kindergarten -age children and 16 percent of first grade age children were not enrolled in TTSD schools. These children include students who were enrolled in private schools or charter schools, net transfers to and from other public school districts, 4 Northwest Regional Education Service District, 2010 - 11 Annual Report. 19 home schooled students, or children not yet attending school, since school is not compulsory until age seven. MITCH Charter School The District charter school MITCH is not included in the enrollment history or forecasts in this report. The school opened in 2003 -04, and in 2009 -10 it enrolled 147 students in grades K -5. In 2010 -11, MITCH expanded to include grades K -8, and enrolled 247 students. Its impact on enrollment at district -run schools has grown due to the addition of middle grades, an additional elementary class, and the gradual increase in the share of its students who are residents of TTSD. The TTSD resident share of MITCH enrollment grew from about 60 percent in Fall 2006 to more than 80 percent in Fall 2010, as the number of TTSD residents enrolled at MITCH doubled from about 100 in Fall 2006 to about 200 in Fall 2010. There was very little change between Fall 2010 and Fall 2011, when MITCH enrolled 248 students. More detailed analysis of MITCH's enrollment by grade level was included in the enrollment forecast report published in December 2010. Because MITCH is operating close to its capacity and charter agreement of 250 students, no additional significant impacts on enrollments at other TTSD schools are expected in the near future. Hispanic Enrollment Growth Between 2010 -11 and 2011 -12, the District's Hispanic enrollment grew by 45 students (1.6 percent). This represents the smallest K -12 Hispanic enrollment growth total in 20 years. Furthermore, elementary schools had a net loss of 47 Hispanic students (3.2 percent). The largest percentage growth was in the high school grades 9 -12, which added 57 Hispanic Students (8.1 percent). Over the past five years, Hispanic enrollment has increased by 723 students (34 percent), while the number of non - Hispanic students has decreased by 664 students (seven percent). Growth in the school age Hispanic population is attributable to in- migration of young adults and higher fertility rates. The slower growth, or decline, in the non - Hispanic school age population is related to the age distribution of the native U.S. born population, which is still impacted by the large baby boom generation. In the TTSD and in most communities there are currently more 20 white non - Hispanics in their 40s and 50s than in their 20s and 30s, so their high school or college age children outnumber elementary -age children. Each year, more white non - Hispanics graduate from high school than enter kindergarten or first grade due to the age distribution of families and their children. Hispanic enrollment is now 23 percent of the District K -12 total and 26 percent of the K -5 (elementary) total. Table 9 reports annual Hispanic enrollment by school level from 2006 -07 to 2011 -12. Enrollment at Individual Schools Total enrollment at each of the District's schools and recent enrollment trends by school are shown in Table 10. In contrast to the overall enrollment decline in the District's elementary schools between 2010- 11 and 2011 -12, C.F. Tigard added 40 students, Tualatin Elementary added 11 students, and four other elementary schools had enrollment changes of no more than five students. The largest declines of 35 students occurred at Byrom and Templeton, followed by losses at Deer Creek and Woodward of 27 and 26 students respectively. Seven of the District's 10 elementary schools have 2011 -12 enrollments within 15 students of their enrollment in the District's peak elementary enrollment year of 2008 -09. Significant declines at Byrom (65 students), Deer Creek (52 students), and Woodward (87 students) account for a loss of 204 students — nearly identical to the District's loss of 202 elementary students over the three year period. All three of the District's middle schools gained enrollment between 2010 -11 and 2011 -12, ranging from increases of four students at Fowler to 28 students at Twality. However, only Twality has surpassed its previous enrollment totals observed over the 2006 -07 to 2009 -10 period. Tigard and Tualatin High Schools both enrolled about the same number of students in 2011 -12 as they did in 2008 -09. Tualatin High School reached a new record enrollment, but remains about 140 students smaller than Tigard High School. 21 Table 9 Hispanic Enrollment History, Tigard - Tualatin School District Change 2006-07 to 2011 -12 School 2006 -07 2007 -08 2 -09 2009 -10 2010 -11 2011 -12 Number Percent Hispanic K -5 1,218 1,265 = 1,291 1,398 1 1,486 1,439 1 8% a... .... 221 1 .,, _ _ Share of District Total 22% 25% 26% 26% Hispanic 6-8 441 514 582 624 638 673 232 53% Share of District Total 16% 18% 20% 21% 23% 24% Hispanic 9 -12 492 579 1 600 629 705 762 270 55% �� .. .. ,.a... ..,..Y Share of District Total � 15% � . 16% 18% 19% m /..) 1%.) Hispanic Total 2,151 2,358 2,473 2,651 • 2,829 2,874 723 34% Share of District Total ___ 17% 19% ,, , 20% ,� 21% 23% 23__ . V V Non - Hispanic Total 10,156 . 10,102 10,122 1.1122111 9,564 9,492 -664 -7% District Total 12,307 12,460 12,595 12,467 12,393 l 12,366 59 �µ 0% Source: Tigard- Tualatin School District Table 10 Enrollment History for Individual Schools, 2006-07 to 2011-12 5 year change Historic Enrollment 2006-07 to 2011-12 School 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Number Percent Alberta Rider 535 540 571 582 579 574 39 7.3% Bridgeport 521 534 550 529 549 547 - 26 5.0% - -- Byrom 634 659 654 633 624 589 -45 -7.1% C.F. Tigard 614 598 587 577 547 587 -27 -4.4% Deer Creek 606 609 581 574 556 529 -77 -12.7% Durham* 525 512 542 556 548 553 28 5.3% .. - . Metzger* 609 589 590 582 574 575 -34 -5.6% Templeton 557 551 588 588 614 579 22 3.9% Tualatin 539 560 580 562 584 595 56 10.4% Woodward 531 520 528 500 467 441 -90 -16.9% . . .- . Elementary Totals 5,671 5,672 5,771 5,683 WEEN 5,569 -102 -1.8% ry , . w . . Fowler M.S.* 910 898 876 885 823 827 -83 -9.1% Ha zelbrook M.S. 1,002 1,002 983 1,013 959 977 _ -25 -2.5% Twa I ity M.S.* 879 951 1,028 1,020 1,012 1,040 161 18.3% Middle School Totals 2,791 2 , 851 2,887 2,918 2,794 2,844 53 1.9% Tigard H.S. 2 I ,000 Z002 2,003 1,977 2,046 2,015 15 „, --- .,-- - Tualatin H.S. 1,772 1,863 1,864 1,825 1 1,874 102 5.8% Durham Center 73 72 70 64 57 64 : -9 -12.3% High School Totals 3,845 3,937 3,937 3,866 3,957 3,953 108 2.8% District Totals 12,307 12,460 12,595 12,467 12,393 12,366 - 59 0.5% *Note: Boundary changes were phased in beginning in 2006-07 that shifted a portion of the former Metzger attendance area to Durham and apart/on of the former Fowler attendance area to Twality. These boundary changes account for some of the enrollment change at the affected schools. Sources: Oregon Department of Education; TTSD ENROLLMENT FORECASTS Potential Residential Development The previous enrollment forecast report, published in December 2010, included a section on potential residential development, summarizing capacity in general terms for different jurisdictions within the District. More specific capacity and potential student generation figures were presented for the West Bull Mountain area, added to the Urban Growth Boundary in 2002 but not yet developed. The current study uses a simpler, but more objective approach to district -wide capacity made possible through the use of parcel -based residential capacity data used in Metro's current regional forecast allocation. Metro's residential capacity databases indicate that there is capacity within the TTSD for almost 4,000 housing units on vacant residential land. About 6,500 additional units could be built on land that is currently developed or partially developed. There are challenges with both types of development. Vacant land may require new services and infrastructure, and if it is currently unincorporated it may need to be annexed by an existing city or included in new or expanded service districts. Infill and redevelopment is more likely if the existing improvement is of low value compared with the land. For example, a small older home on a two acre parcel is a candidate for a new subdivision. District -wide Long -range Forecast Methodology To ensure that enrollment forecasts are consistent with the dynamics of likely population growth within the District, we combine the grade progression enrollment model with a demographic cohort - component model used to forecast population for the District by age and sex. The components of population change are births, deaths, and migration. Using age - specific fertility rates, age -sex specific mortality rates, age -sex specific migration rates, estimates of recent net migration levels, and forecasts of future migration levels, each component is applied 5 The underlying data was provided by Metro, but results included in this study are unofficial estimates prepared by the Portland State University Population Research Center. 25 to the base year population in a manner that simulates the actual dynamics of population change. The 2000 and 2010 Census results were used as a baseline for the population forecasts. By "surviving" the 2000 population and 2000s births (estimating the population in each age group that would survive to the year 2010) and comparing the "survived" population to the actual 2010 population by age group, we were able to estimate the overall level of net migration between 2000 and 2010 as well as net migration by gender and age cohort. The net migration data was used to develop initial net migration rates, which were used as a baseline for rates used to forecast net migration for the 2010 to 2030 period. We estimated the number of births to women residing within the District each year from 2000 to 2009, using data from the Oregon Department of Human Services, Center for Health Statistics. Detailed information including the age of mothers is used to calculate fertility rates by age group for both 2000 and 2009. State and national long term trends indicate declining fertility rates for women under 30 and increasing rates for women 30 and over, but fertility rates in the 2009 to 2010 period have been unusually low due to the poor economy. Provisional and preliminary data indicated that birth totals fell more than seven percent in the U.S. and Oregon between 2007 and 2010. The Pew Research Center's analysis of multiple economic and demographic data sources confirms the close correlation between the economic downturn and the nation's fertility downturn.' Because of the current unusually low rates, we increased rates slightly by 2015 for all age groups. The total fertility rate (TFR) is an estimate of the number of children that would be born to the average women during her child- bearing years based on age - specific fertility rates observed at a given time. The estimated TFR for the District fell from 2.02 in 2000 to 1.86 in 2010, and rebounds to 2.02 by 2015. Table 11 shows historic births from 2000 to 2007 as well as forecasts 6 "Recent Trends in Births and Fertility Rates Through 2010." NCHS Health E -Stat, June 2011; "Month of Occurrence and County of Residence, Oregon Resident Births, 2010, Preliminary." Oregon Health Authority, Center for Health Statistics, date unknown. ' "In a Down Economy, Fewer Births." Pew Research Center, Pew Social & Demographic Trends, October 2011. 26 from 2010 until 2016, the period that will have an impact on the enrollment forecasts presented in this study. Table 11 Estimated and Forecast Births Tigard- Tualatin School District Year Births ... . ................ . 2000 1,134 2001 1,082 2002 1,117 2003 1,113 ........ _..... . 2004 1,155 2005 1,155 2006 1,202 2007 1,202 2008 1,114 2009 1,136 2010 (forecast) 1,055 2011 (forecast) 1,068 2012 (forecast) 1,082 2013 (forecast) 1,106 2014 (forecast) 1,135 2015 (forecast) 1,170 2016 (forecast) 1,186 Source: 1990 -2009 birth data from Oregon Center for Health Statistics allocated to 77SD boundary by PSU -PRC. 2010 -2016 forecasts, PSU -PRC. Historic school enrollment is linked to the population forecast in two ways. First, the kindergarten and first grade enrollments at the time of the most recent census (the 2009 -10 school year) are compared to the population at the appropriate ages counted in the census. The "capture rate," or ratio of enrollment to population, is an estimate of the share of area children who are enrolled in TTSD schools. Assumptions for capture rates based on census data are used to bring new kindergarten and first grade students into the District's enrollment. If there is evidence that capture rates have changed since the time of the census, they may be adjusted in the forecast. The other way that historic population and enrollment are linked is through migration. Annual changes in school enrollment by cohort closely follow trends in the net migration of children in the District's population. Once the students are in first grade, a set of baseline grade 27 progression rates (GPRs) are used to move students from one grade to the next. Grade progression rates are the ratio of enrollment in an individual grade to enrollment in the previous grade the previous year. Baseline rates, usually 1.00 for elementary grades, represent a scenario under which there is no change due to migration. Enrollment change beyond the baseline is added (or subtracted, if appropriate) at each grade level depending on the migration levels of the overall population by single years of age. Population Forecast Census data reported in the "Population and Housing Trends" section showed that the District added about 9,000 fewer residents in the 2000s than in the 1990s. Most of the difference was due to a lower level of positive net migration (more people moving in than moving out). Natural increase (births minus deaths) has also contributed less to population growth since 2000 due to an aging population and lower fertility. Population growth due to net migration is forecast to be slightly higher in the 2010 to 2020 period. Chart 2 shows the 1990 to 2010 estimates and 2010 to 2020 forecast of TTSD population growth attributable to net migration. Chart 2 Tigard- Tualatin School District Net Migration, 1990 to 2020 18,000 16,000 14,700 ()Forecast 14,000 M75727, D Estimated 8 12,000 to 10,000 - 8200 Z 8 , 00 0 6,400 6,000 4,000 , „ ” 2,000 " 1990 -2000 2000 -2010 2010 -2020 Ten Year Period The district -wide population forecast by age group is presented in Table 12. The forecast for 2020 population in the TTSD is 95,353, an increase of 11,896 persons from the 2010 Census (1.3 percent average annual growth). School -age population (5 to 17) is forecast to increase at a 28 slower rate than overall population. The 1,340 person growth in school -age population amounts to nine percent in the 20 year period, or 0.9 percent annually. By 2020, the fastest growing age groups are the "baby boom" generation in its 60s and 70s. Population age 55 and older in the District is forecast to account for two thirds of the District's growth between 2010 and 2020. Table 12 Population by Age Group Tigard- Tualatin School District, 1990 to 2020 1990 1 2000 i i 2020 1 2010 to 2020 Ch_ an e I Census Census 2010 Census Forecast Number ? Percent Under Age 5 ! 3,934 5,128 ' 5,744 1 6,262 518 ` 9% Age 5 to 9 3,744 5,209 5,606 6,058 1 452 8% Age 10 to 14 3,255 5,016 5,646 6,306 660 I 12% Age 15 to 17 1,761 2,959 3,393 3,621 228 7% Age 18 to 19 1,074 E 1,642 1,769 j 1,752 -17 -1% Age 20 to 24 3,190 4,470 i 4,665 5,253 588 = 13% Age 25 to 29 4,509 5,547 5,803 6,509 706 12% Age 30 to 34 5,159 5,633 6,075 1 6,342 I 267 4% Age 35 to 39 3 5,018 6,102 6,116 6,403 1 287 5% . Age 40 to 44 4,494 6,284 6,022 6,504 3 482 8% Age 45 to 49 3,045 5,829 j 6,201 6, 14 j 0% Age 50 to 54 j 2,046 4,609 6,249 5,987 -262 -4% Age 55 to 59 1,655 3,175 5,696 6,057 361 6% Age 60 to 64 1,710 2,206 4,493 6,099 1,606 I 36% Age 65 to 69 1,753 1,733 2,960 5,327 2,367 ? 80% Age 70 to 74 1,709 1,797 2,127 i 4,330 7,203 104% Age 75 to 79 1,614 1,862 1,642 1 2,806 I 1,164 71% Age 80 to 84 1,131 1,592 1,564 - 1,848 284 18% Age 85 and over 942 1,371 1,686 1,674 -12 -1% Total Population 51,653 72,164 83,457 i 95,353 11,896 14% Tota I age 5 to 17 8,760 13,184 14,645 15,985 1,340 9% share age 5 t 17 ; 17 .0% 18.3% 17.5% 16.8% 1990 -2000 2000 -2010 1 2010 -2020 Population Change 20,511 11,293 i 11,896 Percent 111111111111 40% 16% 14% Average Annual 3.4% j 1.5% 1.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990, 2000, and 2010 Censuses; data aggregated to TTSD boundary by Portland State University Population Research Center. PSU-PRC Forecasts, 2020. 29 District -wide Enrollment Forecast Chart 3 compares the historic and forecast number of births in the District with the historic and forecast number of TTSD kindergarten students. Births correspond to kindergarten cohorts (September to August). Although many children move into and out of the District between birth and age five, and not all District residents attend TTSD kindergartens, the trend in kindergarten enrollment historically followed the trend in the birth cohort. However, in three of the five school years beginning in 2007 -08, kindergarten enrollment fell in spite of corresponding increases in births. Over the past 10 years, the gap between births and kindergarten enrollment has grown as a consequence of lower net migration, declining capture rates, or some combination of the two factors. Kindergarten and first grade capture rates are shown in Table 13. The higher rates for first grade reflect the fact that additional residents enter TTSD schools after completing their kindergarten year in private schools. Chart 3 TTSD Birth Cohorts and Kindergarten Enrollment 1,300 2005 -06 - Births 1,200 _. 2 1995 -96 i 1,100 Births s _� I -0 1,000 : ;1; , - N L 9 00 - - -- - - -- - m 800 —G— Forecast Births - - - --e— Historic Births Fall 2011 K —i-- Forecast K 700 - -- _ Fall 2001 K —F Historic K 600 I 1 , 1 , , . , , , , , 2001 -02 2006 -07 2011 -12 2016 -17 2021 -22 School Year 30 Table 13 Estimated and Forecast Capture Rates* Tigard - Tualatin School District School Year Kindergarten Grade 1 1989 -1990 (census) 0.83 F 0.88 1999 -2000 (census) 0.79 0.84 2009 -2010 (census) ; 0.80 i 0.88 2019 -2020 (forecast) 0.78 [ 0.81 *The ratio of enrollment in District schools to total population in the District. Before the last three years when enrollment losses have occurred, The District's growth was fueled by migration; there were consistently more households moving in than out. This migration contributed to the long term growth in District births and subsequent kindergarten enrollments, as was shown in Chart 3. Table 14 illustrates how the TTSD has gained students due to migration at nearly every grade level. Over the 10 years between 1998 -99 and 2008 -09, Table 14 Grade Progression Rates Tigard - Tualatin S.D. History and Forecast 10 Year 3 Year Baseline Forecast Average: Average: (without the Average: Grade 1998 -99 to 2008 -09 to influence of 2011 -12 to Transition 2008 -09 i 2011 -12 mi ration 2021 -22 K -1 1.10 1.04 Z 1.05 • _ r 1 -2 1.01 0.99 1.00 1.01 2 -3 1.01 0.99 0.99 1.00 3 -4 1.02 0.99 1.00 1.01 4-5 1.01, 1.01 1.01 t 1.02 5 -6 1.01 0.98 0.99 1.00 6 -7 1.01 ( 1.00 1.01 I 1.02 7-8 1.01 1.00 1.00 d 1.01 8 -9 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 9 -10 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 10-11 0.98 j 0.98 0.98 0.98 11 -12 0.93 1.01 1.01 1 1.01 _... _..........._._ ............ .. . 1. Ratio of enrollment in an individual grade to enrollment in the previous grade the previous year. 2. The enrollment forecast model uses capture rates for first grade; K -1 baseline GPRs are not used. 31 • average GPRs for each grade from 2nd to 8 ranged from 1.01 to 1.02, indicating growing enrollments due to migration at each grade level. For the most recent three years, from 2008- 09 to 2011 -12, there has been a small net loss at most grade levels attributable to migration of school -age children. The forecast includes enrollment growth due to migration, but at slightly lower rates than in the 1998 -99 to 2008 -09 period. Little or no K -12 growth is expected for 2012 -13 due to the current slow job growth and high unemployment rate. However, over the 10 year forecast period, K -12 enrollment is forecast to increase by 949 students (eight percent), reversing the decline of the past three years and exceeding the overall increase of 601 students experienced in the 10 years between 2001 -02 and 2011 -12. K -5 enrollments initially fall in 2012 -13, but nearly recover to their 2011 -12 level by 2014 -15 and begin to grow significantly after 2016 -17. For the 10 year period, K -5 enrollments grow by 497 students (nine percent). Moderate growth is expected for secondary enrollments throughout the forecast period, amounting to 194 middle school and 258 high school students (both seven percent growth rates) over the 10 year period. There will be annual fluctuations that no forecast can anticipate; a one or two year deviation from the forecast does not mean that the forecast trend will be inaccurate in the long run. Table 15 contains grade level forecasts for the Tigard - Tualatin School District for each year from 2012 -13 to 2021 -22. The forecasts are also summarized by grade level groups (K -5, 6 -8, and 9- 12). 32 Table 15 Tigard - Tualatin School District, Enrollment Forecasts, 2012 -13 to 2021 -22 Actual Forecast Grade 2011 -12 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015-16 2016 -17 2017 -18 2018 -19 2019 -20 2020 -21 2021-22 K 877 ME 887 879 890 888 908 936 967 994 1,014 „ 1 942 908 1111M 939 938 929 960 990 1,020 1,048 2 ' ' 946 953 952 943 974 1,003 1,033 3 IIMEMIll 880 IN 918 949 948 955 954 945 975 1,004 4 .. 939 957 931 963 962 969 968 957 987 5 1,011 IlliMillinall 910 ': 955 988 987 994 MI 980 6 �• . 1, 962 � 987 .... 960 993 � 994 7 910 981 1,026 111C=1 987 938 1,012 985 1 1,018 1,015 1,021 8 973 914 990 1,041 971 1,002 952 1,028 1,000 1,032 1,029 9 Of. 1,015 956 1,039 1,094 1,020 1,053 1,000 1,080 1,049 1,083 10 1,014 1,008 1,019 111M 1,046 1,101 1,027 1,060 10 1,086 1,055 11MMU EC ' ' ' 1,000 944 1,027 1,081 1,008 1,040 988 1,066 w 1 2 IMMINIMMI 1,005 1,000 1,012 955 1,039 1,094 1,020 1,052 999 w US* 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 _.. ' 2 .,. Total lEt3 12,369 12,450 I= 12,605 12,668 12,820 12,919 12,997 13,161 13,315 Annuolchonge 3 81 64 91 63 152 99 - 78 164 154 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 1.3% 1.2% K-5 5,503 5,530 5,552 5,634 5,636 5,694 5,749 5,838 5,940 6,066 6-8 2,850 . 2,901 2,949 2,959 2,873 2,927 2,924 3,006_ 3,010 3,044 3,044 9 -12 3,947 3,965 3,971 4,003 4,098 4,105 4,202 4,164 4,149 4,177 4,205 5 Year Change: 5 Year Change: 10 Year Change: 2011 -12 to 2016 -17 2016 -17 to 2021 -22 2011 -12 to 2021 -22 Growth Pd. Growth Pct. Growth Pd. K -5 67 1% 430 8% 497 9% 6 -8 77 3% 117 4% 194 7% 9 -12 158 4% 100 2% 258 7% Total 302 2% 647 5% 949 8% *Note: "US "are ungraded secondary students; included in grade 9 -12 totals Population Research Center, Portland State University, December2011 Individual School Forecasts Forecasts for individual schools are prepared under a scenario in which current boundaries and grade configurations remain constant. Of course, school districts typically respond to enrollment change in various ways that might alter the status quo, such as attendance area boundary changes, opening new schools, or offering special programs. If new charter or private schools open, enrollment at District -run schools may be affected. However, the individual school forecasts depict what future enrollments might be under current conditions. The methodology for the individual school forecasts relies on unique sets of GPRs for each school, and the ratio of kindergarten enrollment to lagged births within the school's attendance area. New kindergarten classes were forecast each year based on recent trends and birth cohorts within elementary attendance areas. Subsequent grades were forecast using GPRs based initially on recent rates and adjusted based on expected levels of housing growth. The final forecasts for individual schools are controlled to match the district -wide forecasts. We evaluated Metro's residential capacity data for each school attendance area. Among elementary schools, Alberta Rider's attendance area contains the greatest amount of buildable residential land, followed by Durham, Metzger, Woodward, and Deer Creek. These five schools account for about 90 percent of the vacant residential land in the District. Alberta Rider and Woodward also include the TTSD portion of the West Bull Mountain area. Assumptions about future growth in kindergarten enrollment and future GPRs are based on past trends for each school as well as future residential growth potential. Middle school enrollment growth is greatest at Twality due to growth in all of its feeder elementary schools, as well as potential new housing development. Tigard High School's enrollment forecast is fairly stable, while more growth is forecast for Tualatin High School after 2013 -14, as a consequence of the growth at its feeder middle school, Twality. Table 16 presents the enrollment forecasts for each school, grouped by school level (elementary, middle, and high). 34 Table 16 Enrollment Forecasts for Individual Schools, 2011 -12 to 2020 -21 Change Actual ..._ Forecast 2011 -12- School 2011 -12 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 2016 -17 2017-18 2018 -19 2019 -20 2020 -21 2021 -22 2021 -22 Alberta Rider 574 558 573 582 587 601 609 622 640 658 678 104 Bridgeport . ___1_547 542 545 543 550 563 _ all 563 569 575 582 35 Byrom 589 570 548 540 549 530 535 529 532 539 548 -41 ' C.F. Tigard 587 577 582 571 590 596 594 597 605 614 626 39 Deer Creek 529 515 530 549 546 564 578 587 599 610 81 Durham 553 555 WM 72 557 564 570 580 589 603 50 Metzger 575 580 _ 575 587 597 598 611 617 630 640 655 80 Templeton 579 585 588 602 603 595 606 608 613 622 633 54 Tualatin 595 602 610 610 622 619 614 616 622 629 640 45 W Woodward 441 419 427 420 415 431 439 449 460 475 491 50 u' Elementary Totals 5,569 5,503 5,530 5,552 5,634 5,636 5,694 5,749 5,838 5,940 6,066 497 Fowler M.S. 827 839 852 871 837 834 822 843 864 875 878 51 Hazelbrook KA.S. 977 971 1,037 1,026 984 982 978 1,018 1,012 , 1,005 994 17 TwaIityM.S. 1,040 1,085 1,054 1,056 1,046 1,105_ Y 1,118 1,139 1,128 ._1,158 1,166 126 Middle School Totals 2,844 2,895 2,943 2,953 2,867 2,921 2,918 3,000 3,004 , 3,038 3,038 194 Tigard H.S. 2,015 2,010 2,024 2,003 T 2,051 2,051 2,083 2,082 2,061 2,081 2,096 81 Tualatin H.S. 1,874 1,897 1,889 1,942 1,989 1,996 2,061 2,024 2,030 2,038 2,051 177 _Durham Center (7t -12t 64 64 E 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 0 High School Totals 3,953 3,971 4,009 4,104 M, 4,208 4,170 4,155 4,183 4,211 258 District Totals m 12,366_ 12 369 12,450 12,514 12,605 12,668 12 820 12,919_ 12,997 13,161 13,315 949 Population Research Center, Portland State University, December 2011 Table 17 Facility Capacity and Enrollment, 2011 -12 and 2021 -22 201112 ? 2021 -22 ! i Available Available Capacity I Capacity Capacity 2020 -21 I Capacity Excluding I Including 2011 -12 ` (excluding I Forecast (excluding School portables Portables Enrollment _portables) Enrollmentportables) Alberta Rider 624 . n/a 574 50 678 -54 i ~ Bridgeport 572 624 547 25 582 -10 Byrom 650 754 i 589 61 ? 548 102 C.F. Tigard 624 n/a ; 587 37 626 -2 Deer Creek 624 n/a 1 529 95 610 14 Durham 598 n/a d 553 45 603 -5 Metzger , 546 598 575 -29 I 655 -109 Templeton 598 650 i 579 19 633 -35 Tualatin i 598 n/a 1 595 • -42 _Woodward 624 ; 728 14 183 491 i 133 Elementary Totals 6,058 , 6,422 5,569 489 6,066 -8 Fowler M.S. 983 n/a 1 827 1 156 878 105 Hazelbrook M.S. 1,040 n/a 977 63 994 46 Twa I ity M.S. 1 942 ! 1,084 1,040 -98 i 1,166 r -224 Middle School Totals 1 2,965 3,107 2,844 t 121 3,038 -73 Tigard H.S. 1,776 1,898 i 2,015 -239 2,096 -320 Tualatin H.S. allETAUMEIMIIIIM 14 2,051 -163 Durham Center 105 n/a ( 64�� 41 High School Totals g 3,769 3,891 3,953 ' -442 District Totals I 12,792 13,420 1 12,366 EMU -523 1.2011 -12 Capacity (without portables, and with some half -day kindergarten classes) minus October 1, 2011 enrollment. 2.2011 -12 Capacity (without portables, and with some half -day kindergarten classes) minus 2021 -22 forecast enrollment. Sources: 77SD, Facilities and Capacity Assessment; PSU Population Research Center enrollment forecasts. The capacity figures in Table 17 are from the TTSD's November 2009 Facilities and Capacity Assessment. They are compared with both the base year (2011 -12) and end year (2021 -22) of the enrollment forecast. The forecast indicates that there will be district -wide capacity shortfalls at the elementary, middle school, and high school levels. Given the future change to all day kindergarten classes, the elementary shortfall may be greater, since capacities were calculated based on a mix of half day and full day kindergarten. 36 FORECAST ERROR AND UNCERTAINTY In general, forecast error varies according to the size of the population being forecast and the length of the forecast horizon. The smaller the population and the longer the forecast period, the larger the error is likely to be. In particular, the school level forecasts depend on assumptions about the distribution of housing and population growth in small areas within the District over a 10 year period, so the error is likely greater than the District -wide forecast error. The forecasts should be used as only one of many tools in the planning process. Due to the nature of forecasting, there is no way to estimate a confidence interval as one might for data collected from a survey. The best way to measure potential forecast error is to compare actual enrollments with previous forecasts that were conducted using similar data and methodologies. In Table 18 on the next page, actual TTSD enrollment by grade level in Fall 2011 is compared with the 2011 -12 forecasts that were prepared one year earlier, as well as those prepared two and three years earlier. Similarly, Table 19 compares enrollment forecasts for individual schools. As a measure of average error for grade levels and for individual school enrollments, the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is included in the tables. Forecasts prepared in 2008 and 2009 underestimated the unprecedented impact that the recession would have on TTSD enrollment, resulting in forecasts that were higher than actual enrollments. After two decades of consistent growth and existing approvals for several hundred new home sites, it seemed unlikely that enrollment would decline for three consecutive years. Those forecasts also did not incorporate the expansion of MITCH. If MITCH had been taken into account, the errors would have been smaller for 2 nd, 6th, 7th, and 8 grades, and for the K -12 total. The forecast prepared in 2010 did foresee continued decline, and the K -12 total in that forecast was only three students (two hundredths of a percent) different than actual enrollment. However, Kindergarten enrollment was 43 students (4.9 percent) lower and 9 grade enrollment was 40 students (4.0 percent) higher than forecast. The one year forecast prepared in 2010 was within two percent of actual enrollment at all other grade levels. 37 Table 18 Fall 2011 Enrollment Compared to Previous Forecasts By Grade Level One year forecast Two ear forecast Three ear forecast 3 Grade Actual Fcst. Diff. Error Fcst. Diff. Error Fcst. Duff. Error K 877 920 43 I 4.9% 915 ! 38 4.3% 956 79 9.0% , 1 4 942 928 -14 -1.5% 980 ; 38 4.0% 1,019 77 8.2% 2 1 885 898 I 13 1.5% 956 71 8.0% 1,011 126 14.2% 3 935 951 1 16 1.7% 984 49 5.2% 1,010 75 8.0% 4 Irgil =MI -0.9% IMO 19 2 . 1 % IMMO 3.5% 5 1 011 1,003 -8 -0.8% 1,019 8 0.8% 1,044 3.3% mi 977 10 1.0% 981 14 1.4% 1,042 75 7.8% 7 4 910 906 I -4 -0.4% 93 3 I 23 2.5% 950 40 4.4% rol' 960 -13 -13% 978 5 0.5% 1 ,0 23 50 5.1% 9 1,006 .7311 -40 -4.0% 1,009 3 0.3% 1,046 40 4.0% 10 1 014 1,029 111M 1.5% 1,017 3 0.3% 1,031 anal 1.7% 11 937 MUM -0.4% 906 -31 -3„3% 115111111 06% 12 988 I 979 -9 -0.9% I 914 -74 -7.5% 902 -86 -8.7% _ NM 21 US 5 2 i 0 3 2 0 Total annimmirs 1.4% 12,930 564 4.6% MAPE 6 3.1% 6.0% 1. Forecast for 2011-12 by PSU-PRC, baseline 2010-11 enrollment. December 2010. 2. Forecast for 2011-12 by PSU-PRC, baseline 2009-10 enrollment. December 2009. 3. Forecast for 2011-12 by PSU-PRC, baseline 2008-09 enrollment. December 2008. 4. The two and three year forecasts did not include the impact of MITCH Charter School adding middle grades and an additional first grade class. This expansion likely resulted in 12-14 fewer 6th-8th grade students per grade and at least 14 fewer first grade students attending District-run schools. 5. Ungraded secondary enrollment 6. Mean absolute percent error for individual grades K-12. 38 Table 19 Fall 2011 Enrollment Compared to Previous Forecasts by Individual School One ear forecast Two ear forecast Three ear forecast School Actual Fcst. j Diff. Error Fcst. Diff. Error Fcst. Diff. 1 Error Alberta Rider 574 596 22 3.8% 617 43 7.5% 648 74 12.9% Bridgeport 547 556 9 1.6% 567 20 3.7% 585 38 6.9% Byrom 589 595 1.0% _ . 608 19 ME 635 46 18% .......... C. F. TI : a rd 587 551 -6.1% 591 4 0.7% NM -25 -4.3% Deer Creek 540 11 2.1% 558 29 5.5% 565 36 6.8% Durham 554 1 0.2% 578 25 4 j 57 1 18 3.3% Metz:er i 559 -16 -2.8% 603 28 4.9% H 619 44 77% Templeton 623 � � 7.6% 600 21 3.6% 625 46 7.9% Tualatin Elem. 588 -1.2% 582 -13 -2.2% j 620 25 4.2% Woodward NM 449 1.8% 488 47 10.7% I 561 120 27.2% Elementaries 5,569 5,611 42 0.8% 5,792 , 223 4.0% 5,991 422 7.6% tip Fowler 827 816 11 1.3% 844 MIME 877 50 6.0 % � Hazelbrook 977 989 12 1.2% 1024 47 i 4.8% TwaIity 1,040 1,033 -7 -0.7% 1,052 12 1.2% 1,110 70 i 6.7% Middle Schools , 2,844 2,838 -6 -0.2% 2,888 44 1.596 3,011 167 i 5.9% Tigard HS 2,015 ( 2,009 6 0.3% 1,968 47 2.3% _1 1,993 .... 22 1.1 % � Tualatin HS 1,874 1,848 -26 -1.4% 1,823 -51 ,, -2.7% 1,865 } -9 -0.5% , Durham Center 64 57 -7 - 10.9% 64 0 0.0% 70 6 9.4% High Schools 3,953 3,914 -39 -39 -1.0% 3,855 -98 -2.5% 3,928 -25 -0.6% District 12,366 12,363 -3 0.0% 12,535 169 1.4% ; 12,930 564 j 4.6% MAPE 2.2% 3.7% I 7.2% 1. Forecast for 2011 -12 by PSU-PRC, baseline 2010 -11 enrollment. December 2010. 2. Forecast for2011 -12 by PSU -PRC, baseline 2009 -10 enrollment. December 2009. 3. Forecast for 2011 -12 by PSU -PRC, baseline 2008 -09 enrollment. December 2008. 4. The two and three year forecasts did not include the impact of MITCH Charter School adding middle grades. This expansion likely resulted in 35-45 fewer students attending District -run middle schools. 5. Mean absolute percent error for individual schools. APPENDIX A ENROLLMENT AND CAPACITY PROFILES FOR INDIVIDUAL SCHOOLS Alberta Rider Elementary School Enrollment and Capacity 750 - 700 . . 678 16581 6401 650 - — — — — —X 624 600 - -•'• • - „ 609 622 601 550 1 571 5821 4 57311582 ---- 558 i 540 500 5351-H— Forecast Enr. — -- 450 - ---- -------- 4 Historic Enr. — — Capacity 400 • 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 School Year Note: School opened in 2005. Enrollment History and Forecast History Forecast 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 Total enrollment 535 574 601 678 Change 39 27 77 • Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A-1 Bridgeport Elementary School Enrollment and Capacity 650 I ,1 624 1 600 - 75 II — — —*- — — * — — — , , — 572 550 — — 563 558 r,gq ri 569 - - [ -- I t 55° s 54° ll 550 _5 I 542' 545 543 , 15341 I 529 500 -1 521 I— Forecast Enr. • Historic Enr. 450 — — Capacity —4— Capacity w/ portables 400 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 School Year Enrollment History and Forecast History Forecast 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 Total enrollment 521 547 563 582 Change 26 16 19 Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A-2 Edward Byrom Elementary School Enrollment and Capacity 800 - Forecast Enr. • Historic Enr. 750 -- ..1..._ I. L. ..L. .I. j 641 — - Capacity 700 -- I Capacity w/ portables - 6 - 50 650 659 600 -.1 6331 - 16241 - 550 570j L5 5 , 1549 I 1A • 7- 539 I [ 500 - 5300-ri 529 LI- 532 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- . 2020- 2021 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21. 22 School Year Enrollment History and Forecast History Forecast 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 Total enrollment 634 589 530 548 Change -45 -59 18 Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A-3 Charles F. Tigard Elementary School Enrollment and Capacity 650 1626_11 625 — 1624 600 - 614_1 1 614 cnli.1 I 1598 15961 5941 575 i 587 _ 5871 590 j 1582 I v 5771 I-1 571 550 — e— Forecast Enr. 547 525 Historic Enr. — et— — Capacity 500 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 School Year Enrollment History and Forecast History Forecast 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 Total enrollment 614 587 596 626 Change -27 9 30 Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A-4 Deer Creek Elementary School Enrollment and Capacity 650 625 ............__...._..... ._..__._..._..__. , ............_... _ ......... .... *......_........_............ _I �"._..........* .._....�._.._. �_._.. -*.— * _ ........... -)1:_i 624 600 ~ -R , 609. ._..._...._........_ ... _ _ - __ ...... _ ._._.... _ _..__.. __ -- ......._ _..__._ _....... . (606 6101 575 % _ 1 599 581 574 F5-71-3-1 58 550 — ._..__ ...............- - — ._.....:�... __ ... 64 564 556 f 549 I 6 $ Forecast Enr. 525 -- . —o-- Historic Enr. 529 , :, 1530:15361 — - Capacity 500 1 5151, 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 School Year Enrollment History and Forecast History Forecast 2006 -07 2011 -12 2016 -17 2021 -22 Total enrollment 606 529 546 610 Change -77 17 64 Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A -5 Durham Elementary School Enrollment and Capacity 650 '603 600 — — �E -- - - __ -- X - - X- - "CIE --K — — ...._ X 598 589 550 572 } _ �. 542 1. 1 ( .555 55- 2; 561: 557 - - 500 525 512 — 0 Forecast Enr. 450 Historic Enr. -- — Capacity 400 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 School Year Note: In 2006 a phased -in boundary change began that assigns a portion of the attendance area from Metzger to Durham. Enrollment History and Forecast History Forecast 2006 -07 2011 -12 2016 -17 2021 -22 Total enrollment 525 553 557 603 Change 28 4 46 Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A -6 Metzger Elementary School Enrollment and Capacity 700 675 _ ---•— Forecast Enr. —w-- Historic Enr. 655 — Capacity + Capacity w/ portables '640 650 -- -' P Y P tY P � 630 " ` - - --- 625 611 1 617 6 598! 00 609 589I590 1 550 - 597 598, 582 574 575 580�575 587 - -- - -.. L _ - - -- X — _. — �X. —YE —X— —CIE —.. K— —71 — —YE= = — _ 546 525 - 500 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 School Year Note: In 2006 a phased -in boundary change began that assigns a portion of the former attendance area to Durham. Enrollment History and Forecast History Forecast 2006 -07 2011 -12 2016 -17 2021 -22 Total enrollment 609 575 598 655 Change -34 23 57 Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A -7 James Templeton Elementary School Enrollment and Capacity 675 650 650 ..............._.... I i I I I I I I I I I 622 633' 625 ;614 613 1 `.. '602 6031 6061 608 600 - - �_.. — — �_. . _ .. -.� _ .._ -�K_. :� _ � _ --X 59-8 — ............— — .._......... 595 575 . . 588 588 - - -. . , 5851 _588 ....-- - -___ ..._ : - - -- _ _....... _....- - - -.._ .. _�._. — _._._...... 579 550 ---e-- Forecast Enr. — • Historic Enr. 557 —55T1 -- - Capacity ---1— Capacity w/ portables 525 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 School Year Enrollment History and Forecast History Forecast 2006 -07 2011 -12 2016 -17 2021 -22 Total enrollment 557 579 595 633 Change 22 16 38 Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A -8 Tualatin Elementary School Enrollment and Capacity 650 - —1640 6221 I 61 622 j 1629 7 625 — 619 • - ---- ._.._....__._....- - - -._. _. 610 614 6 _— �: __ �...._ � :610 : —__ __.._.. 602 600 — CIE — . ..... __W_.. _�K_ 31E — 598 1 595' 575 • 584 X580 550 _ — /� 560 562! — .- ..._.__.._..._— — — �..�.. Forecast Enr. 525 ; 53g ; �— Historic Enr. — — Capacity 500 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 School Year Enrollment History and Forecast History Forecast 2006 -07 2011 -12 2016 -17 2021 -22 Total enrollment 539 595 619 640 Change 56 24 21 Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A -9 Mary Woodward Elementary School Enrollment and Capacity Forecast Enr. 775 - Historic Enr. 728 4 725 — 3 k- — Capacity I I 1 I I I I I I 675 - --I-- Capacity w/ portables 625- -)K F6241 575 -- 525- 427 11 420 1 415 475 _ 531 _[ - i 419 I 425 - • 467 441 375- H74 439:44: 520 I 500 9 49: 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 School Year Enrollment History and Forecast History Forecast 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 Total enrollment 531 441 431 491 Change -90 -10 60 Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A-10 Fowler Middle School Enrollment and Capacity 1000 )1E -- CIE- -X- -3Y - -X-- X— X— — * --K --X —X - - -X 983 950 900 — ._.._.._. � 910 � -- ---- __._.. 875 - I 878 - 8 864 98 850 876 885 871 _ 837.18 822l'843 852 - -:: 1839 —e-- Forecast Enr. 800 -- ._....._.__ —_._ — ...._._ 823: oci _......_..._..._..._.._ ........ ..........._..._._..__._..... — _ — _— _.._ ............. _. —4 Historic Enr. — a+F— — Capacity 750 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 School Year Note: In 2006 a phased -in boundary change began that assigns a portion of the attendance area to Twality. Enrollment History and Forecast H istory Forecast 2006 -07 2011 -12 2016 -17 2021 -22 Total enrollment 910 827 834 878 Change -83 7 44 Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A -11 Hazelbrook Middle School Enrollment and Capacity 1100 1050 - 1 03 7 ... - A - : 1026 994 1000 "- . 1013 1018 1002 11 012 1005 1002 02 983: 977 ' x984 1 982 971 -.......: 978 –� --- Forecast Enr. 950 ... -- — _ — ...._._ 959 ! ._:.. - -. —:_ _::: __ _.._._. . 1 —4— Historic Enr. — )1(- - Capacity 900 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 School Year Enrollment History and Forecast History Forecast 2006 -07 2011 -12 2016 -17 2021 -22 Total enrollment 1002 977 982 994 Change -25 5 12 Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A -12 Twality Middle School Enrollment and Capacity 1300 I — 1200 —` 1118 1139 1128 ,-1-15-8-• 1166 1085 J 1105 ._ 1100 ____ - -- -- I I I I I 1 I i i 11084 1000 ._.._ _........ -� --, I _......- 1028 1020 1 1040 1054 I' 1056 f' 1046 f — — ..__ ....._.__.._....__._..___._.... 1012 X * - X - - X- - CIE --`.E *- -X -- -X - — X 942; 900 1951 - 879 —b--- Forecast Enr. —I Historic Enr. 800 — *- — Capacity —I-- Capacity w/ portables 700 , 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 School Year In 2006 a phased -in boundary change began that assigns a portion of Fowler's former attendance area to Twality. Enrollment History and Forecast History Forecast 2006 -07 2011 -12 2016 -17 2021 -22 Total enrollment 879 1040 1105 1166 Change 161 65 61 Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A -13 , Tigard High School Enrollment and Capacity 2200 2100 — 2081 2083 2082 ^2061 208 2096 ;_ - - ; 2046 � , - - -- 2051 :2051. ::__ _..... _ _.,... $ 2000! 2002 2003 2015 2010 ;2024 1 2003 ~ - 19771 2000 ...._. ::::_::: - = 1900 -.__....___.....__. .__._..______......_....__...._ I I 4 I I I I I -I I I I I' 1898 1800 i —CIE— X — * - X-- X-- -)I( —)f — CIE --X- -X- -CIE- X. 1776 1700 - 0 Forecast Enr. ---S Historic Enr. — *- – Capacity ---I Capacity w/ portables 1600 . 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 School Year Enrollment History and Forecast History Forecast 2006 -07 2011 -12 2016 -17 2021 -22 Total enrollment 2000 2015 2051 2096 Change 15 36 45 Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A -14 Tualatin High School Enrollment and Capacity 2200 2100 _ 2061 —,12051 2030 - 2038 " -- 2024 1989 ' 1996 2000 — 1942 - - 1897 1889 1. 1900 - - - — — — — - 1888 1800 - 1863 1864 1854 F 1874 4r 1825 --- —0— Forecast Enr. 1772 1700 • Historic Enr. — *- — Capacity 1600 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 School Year Enrollment History and Forecast History Forecast 2006-07 2011-12 20157 2021-22 Total enrollment 1772 1874 1996 2051 Change 102 122 55 Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A-15 Durham Center Enrollment and Capacity 125 100 - 105 73 1: 70 75 — 641 [64' 641 64 [64 64 ; 64 64 ; 64 I 1641 F641 5_7_1 50 - Forecast Enr. 25 - --I-- Historic Enr. - Capacity 0 , 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 School Year Enrollment History and Forecast History Forecast 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 Total enrollment 73 64 64 64 Change -9 0 0 Population Research Center, Portland State University December, 2011 A-16 APPENDIX B 2000 AND 2010 CENSUS PROFILE FOR THE DISTRICT 2000 and 2010 Census Summary Tigard Tualatin School District Area approximation based on census block geography POPULATION BY AGE GROUP 2000 2010 2000 to 2010 Change Total population 72,164 100.0% 83,457 100.0% 11,293 15.6% Under age 18 18,312 25.4% 20,389 24.4% 2,077 11.3% Age 18 and over 53,852 74.6% 63,068 75.6% 9,216 17.1% AREA AND DENSITY Land Area - Sq. Mi. (Source: 2010 Census) 25.1 25.1 0.0 0.0% Persons per square mile 2,871.8 3,321.2 449.4 15.6% HOUSING OCCUPANCY STATUS Total housing units 30,831 100.0% 35,228 100.0% 4,397 14.3% Occupied 29,097 94.4% 33,454 95.0% 4,357 15.0% Vacant or Seasonal 1,734 5.6% 1,774 5.0% 40 2.3% HISPANIC OR LATINO AND RACE Total population 72,164 100.0% 83,457 100.0% 11,293 15.6% Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 6,660 9.2% 11,280 13.5% 4,620 69.4% Not Hispanic or Latino 65,504 90.8% 72,177 86.5% 6,673 10.2% White Alone 59,749 82.8% 62,646 75.1% 2,897 4.8% Black or African American Alone 640 0.9% 1,212 1.5% 572 89.4% American Indian and Alaska Native Alone 392 0.5% 416 0.5% 24 6.1% Asian Alone 2,824 3.9% 4,525 5.4% 1,701 60.2% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Alone 303 0.4% 709 0.8% 406 134.0% Some Other Race Alone 85 0.1% 110 0.1% 25 29.4% Two or More Races 1,511 2.1% 2,559 3.1% 1,048 69.4% RACE ALONE OR IN COMBINATION Total population 72,164 100.0% 83,457 100.0% 11,293 15.6% White 64,800 89.8% 70,576 84.6% 5,776 8.9% Black or African American 978 1.4% 2,036 2.4% 1,058 108.2% American Indian and Alaska Native 1,014 1.4% 1,347 1.6% 333 32.8% Asian 3,592 5.0% 6,026 7.2% 2,434 67.8% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 529 0.7% 1,107 1.3% 578 109.3% Some Other Race 3,372 4.7% 5,985 7.2% 2,613 77.5% 1. Data are shown for the Hispanic or Latino population, as well as for people who reported one race and for people who reported two or more races. The population of One Race is the total of the population in the 6 categories of one race. The population of Two or More Races is the total of the population in the 57 specific combinations of two or more races. The redistricting files include data for all 63 groups. 2. Data are shown for the 6 race alone or in combination categories. The concept "race alone or in combination" includes people who reported a single race alone (e.g., Asian) and people who reported that race in combination with one or more of the other major race groups (i.e., White, Black or African American, American Indian and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, and Some Other Race). The concept "race alone or in combination," therefore, represents the maximum number of people who reported as that major race group, either alone, or in combination with another race(s). The sum of the 6 individual race "alone or in combination" categories may add to more than the total population because people who reported more than one race were tallied in each race category. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census, Public Law 94 -171 Summary File; 2000 Census, SF1. Tabulated by Population Research Center, Portland State University. www.pdx.edu /prc SUPPLEMENTAL PACKET River Terrace Facts FOR �j I au a (DATE OF MEETING) River Terrace Vicinity: Includes 2001Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) Expansion Areas 63 & 64 and 50 acres of 2011 Roy Rogers West (RRW) UGB Expansion Area Total Acreage: 535 acres Area 64 248 ac Area 63 219 ac 2011 RRW UGB Expansion 50 acres (RRW) Future UGB Additions: 200 acres (RRW) Current Zoning: Future Development — 20 (FD -20) /Washington County Current Uses: Rural Single - Family Residential & Agricultural Areas Annexed to City Area 64 (October 2011) ' 1 Area 63 and50 acres of RRW (estimated summer 2012) Vl� e ) Ti rd had originally requested that Metro add the whole rural element (which included Roy Rogers West) to the < Metro Council approved only 50 acres to provide a public facility bridge between Areas 64 and 63. It is expected that Metro will add the remaining approximately 250 acres within the next five years. Washington County Concept Plan Adopted by County Board resolution in October 2010 and includes all of the 248 acres of Roy Rogers West. The County concept plan assumed a high school in Area 64. Future Estimated Dwelling Units 3,497 Future Estimated Population 10,771 City of Tigard Community Plan Tigard and Washington County agreed that areas 63 and 64 can be most efficiently urbanized by a city capable of providing the full range of urban services In order for urbanization to take place to City must refine the County Concept plan into an implementable Community Plan Timeline: Project Scoping and Organization: January - July 2012: Develop and Adopt Community Plan: July 2012 — Fall 2014 Partners: Washington County, Clean Water Services, Metro, Tigard Tualatin School District, Beaverton, Beaverton School District, ODOT and other State of Oregon Agencies; King City; Sherwood; Tualatin Valley Fire and Rescue; Tualatin River Keepers; Affordable Housing Advocates, Tri-met, property owners and other citizens and affected services districts. R River Terrace Vicinity K _` v Si1 I ,�, S r Y ._ 1 . �'�_ , 0 Q RiverTerrace " n 4 ; _ I . I Urban Growth Boundary a • ‘, L. City of Tigard ' - 11 b Yq 0 9 W y t it , C $ f e: k • TrA 7 Le 4 � River Terrace , , ° f �`'' t `� > x (UGB Area 64) n ` ., u y r i 1 Z i M ti i i , -.. M • < i1, Y . a� �• w r 2011 UGB � .. i N' Expansion ,< 4 Area I >'r 1 I .a ' a,. Urban Growth Boundar Expansion Are .w I i - - n 4 .. t---- ---- -1 , v *- W e s t Bull Mt. Concept Plan 1. Rural Element : B e e f B e n d R : d 0 , .r25 025 .. ,. N 0.5 t 4 I • 1 1 1 I i 1 1 SUPPLEMENTAL PACKET 2/6/2012 FOR �3v laoi (DATE OF MEETING) City of Tigard Tigard - Tualatin SD Joint Meeting 1 -30 -12 DISTRICT INITIATIVES x Strategic Plan 2011 -2016 adopted 1 -23 -12 Comprehensive K -12 literacy program Science adoption implementation Technology initiative and innovative grants Tigard- Tualatin Online Academy Middle Years IB exploration x Dual Language Immersion exploration Common Core implementation 1 2/6/2012 TTSD 10096 2010 -11 OAKS - Reading 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3rd 4th 5th 6th _ 7th 8th HS • 2007 -08 89.0% 91.0% 85.0% 74.0% 77.0% 72.0% 73.0% • 2008 -09 89.0% 89.4% 84.1% 81.4% _ _ 81.3% 77.8% 73.8% • 2009 -10 89.67% _ 90.21% 87.91% _ 81.82% 83.12% 78.01% 81.51% O 2010.11 93.28% 92.15% 85.80% 85.39% 84.86% 79.78% 88.83% ■ State 83.40% 85.30% 77.70% 79.10% - -� 79.70% 72.00% 83.20% TTSD 2010 -11 OAKS - Math 100% - -- - -- - -- - - - -- 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% - 20% 10% 0% — 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th HS 02007 -08 84.0% 86.0% 86.0% 72.0% 77.0% 72.0% 69.0% • 2 -09 79.9% 83.9% 85.3% 77.1% 81.2% 75.5% 65.3% �� j �g g(pp �g j • 1 - 84.93 B 87 17R 7� 87.04% 80.52% 79.71% — 2 2/6/2012 TTSD 2010 -11 OAKS - Science 100% - — 90% 80% 60% MI 50% 11 ■ 40% I I 30% ' I 20% — ■ _ 10 %. —n III III 5th 8th _ HS ■ 2007 -08 78.0% 73.0% 65.0% -- • 2008 -09 81.6% 74.9% 62.8% ■ 2009.10 83.48% _ . - ... 76.01% 69.55% - • 2010 -11 83.79% 77.56% 76.91% IS PS • State 74.10% 71.40% 70.10% TTSD 2010 -11 OAKS - Writing 100% — . -- - -- - - -- 90% _. - -- -° -- -- 50% I 50% 40% - - -._- 30% 20% 10% 0% 4th 7th HS • 2007 -08 564% - ... 56.0% - -- 59.0% • 2008 -09 54.0% 62.4% i 64.6% • 2009 -10 52.73% 65.09% - -__ 70.19% - -- 11 02010.11 50.56% _ 62.21% _ 81.11% ■PS -- • State - 68.20% 3 2/6/2012 GRADUATION Drop out rate less than 1.5% 4 year graduation rate 82% (state average is 67 %) ALBERIDER omir .6 acres Alberta Rider --j, House tfr 2.5 acres offield space 4 2/6/2012 DURHAM ELEMENTARY eY Playground 2.8 acres field space y . ate '=° r �flP L 1 b METZGER ELEMENTARY 3.25 acres • F "r 1 o is° in[oln St. T,y 5 2/6/2012 TWALITY MIDDLE AND TEMPLETON ELEM 5 acres • r ft 1. CUJ'JGARD ELEMENTARY lk, �' :�. 2.25 acres 1 S ran Ave, Ti a�d OR% $ �rr {� 2017 ti Go n ro i _ /' X72 Europa Tee holo• y . 6 2/6/2012 MARY WOODWARD ELEMEgRY �� 5 acres x � fff S C thenne ' ;,.a OR9 irosiii I 100).11,„ . 1 __ FOWLER MIDDLE SCHOOL :r - .� .. 2.5 acres ' 1 086 W St. Tip _ fir, t In discussions for artificial turf on lighted baseball field ., b ? t rn-li -- _.::-- . .- r ¢ 1 . M 7 r 2/6/2012 TIGARD HIGH SCHOOL _ _ , u,. '1a ,,,,r ask t { 3 fields in artificial turf - ,, a . , soccer, football, baseball 1 1 + - 1. ' , 7 additional acres ;r, I I w including land by the swimming pool ip li ( o lull I hnold'ym - 4S 14 ∎!14 ' N 112 4S'SS.7s W sly, 57 ART RUTKIN S §ITE + � ltt 1 f ' 1 x 20 acres located off April o . Lane on SW Bull Mountain. cf' ° x Capacity not needed until itr ,t,,, , ,,: „: development begins in :'T River Terrace area . x Probable ` • elementary /middle school ° location it , .; Hopeful of park on it: ! , _, • '„Iit. , ” 1 ■` property to the south +'.4 Potential ball fields - `' di estimate 6 acres 8 2/6/2012 DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT Pg. 1 and 2 - Executive Summary decrease of 27 students this year, 229 in last 3 60,000 jobs lost in metro region since 2008 Room for 10,500 additional housing units in district Growth of 949 (8 %) projected through 2021 Full Day Kindergarten for all in 2015 Pg. 14 Number of students per new home -.55 Pg. 35 Enrollment forecast by school Last page - Census Summary 2000 -2010 9 2012 Tigard City Council Goals The City Council met December 6, 2011, to set goals for the comingyear. While the city will accomplish much more than what is listed here, the identified goals represent items deserving special attention in the months ahead 1. Take the Next Step on Major Projects a. Continue oversight of design, permits, rate implementation and costs for the Lake Oswego - Tigard Water Partnership. b. Implement the Comprehensive Plan through code revisions, including: i. Tree code. ii. Contribute to the SW Corridor Plan by adopting Tigard's land use policies and designations and identifying priorities for high- capacity transit (HCT) station location alternatives by mid -2012. 1. Determine the economic development opportunities, development plan, city policies and regulations needed to position the Tigard Triangle as an HCT station location. c. Deliver on the promise of the voter - approved park bond by identifying all acquisition opportunities and completing the majority of park land acquisitions and improvements by the end of 2012. 2. Financial Sustainability a. Maintain the long -term financial health of the General Fund and reserves. i. Develop a long -term financial strategy by mid -2012. b. Communicate regularly to residents about the alignment of city priorities with resources. c. Evaluate the city's sustainability efforts on an ongoing basis. 3. Downtown a. Identify a geographic - opportunity area in the downtown with the greatest potential to create a catalyst for further development. Concentrate most resources there. b. Contact owners of key, structurally sound Main Street buildings with vacancies. Begin cooperative effort to secure tenants that will contribute to the vitality of downtown. 4. Annexation a. Re- evaluate the city's annexation policy. b. Develop a philosophy and approach to consider annexations, including islands. 5. Recreation a. Evaluate options and resources to create a pilot recreation program: i. Inventory existing city and community recreational programs, facilities and resources. ii. Create recreational opportunities by partnering with the school district and other agencies or groups. iii. Identify funding options aligning with the recreational programming demand. Five Year Council Goals • Obtain Ash Avenue railroad crossing in downtown. • Explore Pacific Highway Urban Renewal District as part of a citywide economic development strategy. • Support the legislature to address the financial needs of Oregon state and local governments. • Identify funding and implement plan for city facility needs. • Renew intergovernmental water agreement. Long - Term Council Goals • Continue pursuing opportunities to reduce traffic congestion. • Continue implementing the Downtown Urban Renewal Plan. • Continue monitoring the Tigard /Lake Oswego Water Partnership. SUPPLEMEN TAL PACKET I: \adm \city council \goals \2012 \2012 council goals final draft for review in 12 23 11 ccnl.docx FOR i/.0 / (DATE OF MEETING)