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City Council Packet - 07/20/2021 .111 " City of Tigard Tigard Workshop Meeting—Agenda TIGARD TIGARD CITY COUNCIL MEETING DATE AND TIME: July 20,2021 - 6:30 p.m. MEETING LOCATION: Remote participation only. See PUBLIC NOTICE below. PUBLIC NOTICE: In accordance with the City of Tigard's Emergency Declaration related to COVID-19 and Oregon House Bill 4212,this will be a virtual meeting where Council and staff will participate remotely. There will be no verbal public testimony during this meeting.Written public comment may be submitted electronically at www.tigard-or.gov/Comments. All comments must be submitted before 4:30 p.m. on the day of the meeting. VIEW LIVESTREAM ONLINE: http://www.tigard-or.gov/city hall/council meeting.php Workshop meetings are cablecast on Tualatin Valley Community TV as follows: Replay Schedule for Tigard City Council Workshop Meetings - Channel 28 Every Sunday at 12 a.m. Every Monday at 1 p.m. •Every Wednesday at 2 p.m. •Every Thursday at 12 p.m. •Every Friday at 10:30 a.m. SEE ATTACHED AGENDA 114a ® City of Tigard Tigard Workshop Meeting—Agenda TIGARD TIGARD CITY COUNCIL MEETING DATE AND TIME: July 20, 2021 - 6:30 p.m. MEETING LOCATION: Remote participation only. 6:30 PM 1. WORKSHOP MEETING A. Call to Order—City Council & Town Center Development Agency B. Roll Call C. Pledge of Allegiance D. Call to Council and Staff for Non-Agenda Items 2. PUBLIC COMMENT A. Follow-up to Previous Public Comment B. Written Public Comment C. Phone-in Public Comment 3. JOINT MEETING WITH THE PLANNING COMMISSION FOR A BRIEFING ON TIGARD MADE PROJECT 6:40 p.m. estimated time 4. RECEIVE UPDATE ON TIGARD GOLD—GOVERNMENT ORGANIZING AND LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT 7:25 p.m. estimated time 5. RECEIVE UPDATE ON BOARD AND COMMIT hE RECRUITMENT AND SELECTION PROCESS 7:55 p.m. estimated time 6. CONSIDER A RESOLUTION TO EXTEND PARKS AND RECREATION ADVISORY BOARD MEMBER TERMS 8:15 p.m. estimated time 7. CONSIDER RESOLUTION SUPPORTING TIGARD ELECTRIC VEHICLE (EV) STRATEGY TGM GRANT APPLICATION 8:25 p.m. estimated time 8. NON-AGENDA ITEMS 9. ADMINISTRATIVE REPORT 10. EXECUTIVE SESSION:The Tigard City Council will go into Executive Session to discuss property negotiations,under ORS 192.660(2) (e).All discussions are confidential and those present may disclose nothing from the Session. Representatives of the news media are allowed to attend Executive Sessions,as provided by ORS 192.660(4), but must not disclose any information discussed. No Executive Session may be held for the purpose of taking any final action or making any final decision. Executive Sessions are closed to the public. 8:30 p.m. estimated time 11. EXECUTIVE SESSION:The Town Center Development Agency will go into Executive Session to discuss property negotiations,under ORS 192.660(2) (e). All discussions are confidential and those present may disclose nothing from the Session. Representatives of the news media are allowed to attend Executive Sessions, as provided by ORS 192.660(4),but must not disclose any information discussed. No Executive Session may be held for the purpose of taking any final action or making any final decision. Executive Sessions are closed to the public. 8:50 p.m. estimated time 12. ADJOURNMENT 9:10 p.m. estimated time AIS-4635 3. Workshop Meeting Meeting Date: 07/20/2021 Length (in minutes): 45 Minutes Agenda Title: Joint Meeting with the Planning Commission for a Briefing on Tigard MADE Project Prepared For: Hope Pollard, Community Development Submitted By: Hope Pollard, Community Development Item Type: Update, Discussion, Direct Staff Meeting Type: Council Joint Meeting-Board or Other Juris. Workshop Mtg. Public Hearing: No Publication Date: Information ISSUE Receive briefing on the Tigard MADE (Maintain, Advance, & Diversify Employment) code project. STAFF RECOMMENDATION / ACTION REQUEST Briefing only - no formal action requested at this time. Staff requests confirmation from the Planning Commission and City Council regarding project direction given the City's land-constrained status confirmed by the recently completed Economic Opportunity Analysis. KEY FACTS AND INFORMATION SUMMARY Background and Introduction Tigard MADE (Maintain, Advance, and Diversify Employment) started in August 2020. At the initial briefing, the Planning Commission and City Council were introduced to the project, which analyzes potential updates to land use policies and the Development Code; this will improve the capacity and performance of Tigard's employment lands. Development Code updates aim to accommodate changing development and economic trends while promoting Strategic Plan Objectives focused on mixed-use development, environmental sustainability, and social equity. Upon project completion, recommendations will be reviewed by the Planning Commission for ultimate approval by the City Council. The project spans the commercial, industrial, and mixed-use zones shown on the map in Attachment 1. It does not include land located within Plan Districts such as Downtown, the Tigard Triangle, or Washington Square Regional Center, although planning staff are coordinating ongoing long-term planning projects in those areas. Since the first briefing on this project: •The City's consultant completed a draft Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA); • City staff held three events for business owners, hosted a business owner survey with 34 responses, and a resident survey with 126 responses. Staff conducted interviews with 26 stakeholders and experts (all outreach was offered in English and Spanish), and a graduate student team from Portland State University (PSU) completed case studies and interviews with experts from five cities across the nation to inform the project (Attachment 1); •Using the above information, staff developed draft Development Code updates that will be analyzed by our consultant over the next few months. During this briefing, staff will share findings from the EOA and community outreach and will introduce the draft Development Code updates being analyzed. While no formal action is required at this time, staff requests input on the direction of updates, considering the findings of the EOA. EOA Results The EOA performed by Johnson Economics found that over the next 20 years, assuming employment in the city continues to grow at a rate of 1.8% annually, the demand for jobs in the City of Tigard will increase to 55,766 employees by 2041. Given the city's existing Development Code and land use policies, the greatest number of jobs in Tigard are forecast in the following industries: construction, professional services, and health care (Attachment 2, Figure 1). The fastest percentage growth rates are projected for professional services, health care, transportation/warehousing & utilities, and leisure and hospitality (Attachment 2, Figure 2). The EOA translates these employment projections into forecasts for land demand and built form. Employment in office and retail space accounts for the greatest share of growth, followed by employment housed in general industrial, institutional, flex/business park, and warehouse/distribution space (Attachment 2, Figure 3). According to the EOA, employment in: • Commercial office space typically provides 40 jobs per acre, •Retail space typically provides.20 jobs per acre, and •Industrial uses range from 21 for general industrial to fewer than 8 jobs per acre for warehouse/distribution. Inclusive of all industries, the City's employment is projected to grow by up to 18,971 new employees, necessitating up to 1,132.1 acres of land over the next 20 years (Attachment 3). There is currently an estimated 230.91 acres of vacant, partially vacant, or redevelopable land available to accommodate this projected growth (Attachment 4). Therefore, the City is land-constrained, meaning there is not sufficient land supply available to accommodate the projected employment growth. Policy Considerations Planning Commission and City Council Direction In order to address the constraint of available employment land paired with employment growth projected by the EOA, the City has three alternatives to consider: 1. Do nothing: Projections made through the EOA process are estimations, not guarantees. The City could choose to do nothing at this time and see how the market adapts. 2. Wait to potentially expand the UGB: Tigard has only two urban reserves remaining, which are accounted for with the River Terrace 2.0 project. At this time, further UGB expansion beyond River Terrace 2.0 is not possible. The City could wait for Metro to reevaluate urban and rural reserve designations, but this will likely not occur in time to accommodate the 20-year horizon of the EOA projections. Additionally, it is not guaranteed that such reevaluation would result in additional urban reserves eligible for annexation into Tigard. 3. Staff Recommendation: Revise the Development Code to accommodate more job intense employment that is vibrant, socially equitable, and environmentally sustainable within the city's existing boundary: The City could use its current land-constrained situation as an opportunity and a catalyst to find innovative job creating solutions and build Strategic Plan Objectives and City Council Goals into the Development Code. If the Planning Commission and City Council decide to move forward with this option, City staff has drafted a framework that provides that path. It would include changes such as: a. Consolidating zones and use category definitions to simplify the Development Code and reduce barriers to new business owners seeking to locate in Tigard. b. Allowing more uses to mix throughout the City, potentially providing residents and employees better access to services without necessitating additional vehicle trips. c. Promoting job-dense industries with career pathways and living wage employment opportunities. d. Building an incentives list that allows developers to request flexibility on standards such as maximum height, minimum parking, or even certain use restrictions in exchange for providing benefits such as reduced energy consumption, trail connections, or affordable tenant spaces. e. Project consultant will review and test development recommendations to forecast efficacy and impact. Continuing Work The preliminary updates to land use policy and the Development Code represent staff's effort to apply the values expressed in the Strategic Plan and City Council Goals to land use policy, reflect feedback received at the initial project briefing and through community outreach, and accommodate dense job growth within the existing UGB. At this stage, the framework centers on converting the nine existing MADE-covered zones into four new zones. They are listed below in order of the least restrictive to the most restrictive. • C-G: General Commercial: functions similarly to the existing C-G zone, allowing a wide range of auto-centric commercial activity and building sizes. This new version also allows some industrial uses and encourages more residential and pedestrian friendliness. It may also allow warehouse and distribution uses, as developers have expressed interest in repurposing large retail buildings. •MUE: Mixed-Use Employment: allows the broadest range of low-impact uses to mix together with a focus on an enhanced pedestrian experience. Uses like office, low-impact industrial, retail, entertainment, and even some residential are allowed in this zone while auto-oriented uses, large format retail, warehouse and distribution, and self-service storage are not. •I-L: Light Industrial: The I-L zone functions as a sanctuary for manufacturing businesses with a higher density of on-site semi- or high-skilled industrial-sector jobs. The I-L zone may allow limited amounts of retail and personal services as accessory uses in order to serve employees working in the area. The zone may also prohibit industries with low employment densities as identified in the EOA, such as larger warehouse and distribution facilities, in order to facilitate more job-dense industrial uses due to the constraint of available employment land. •I-H: Heavy Industrial: The I-H zone is a refuge for heavy manufacturing with heavier off-site impacts. Accessory retail and personal services are not allowed in this zone; it remains strictly for industrial and manufacturing uses. The zone may also prohibit industries with low employment densities as identified in the EOA, such as larger warehouse and distribution facilities in order to facilitate more job-dense industrial uses due to the constraint of available employment land. Conclusion The City of Tigard is land constrained with insufficient employment land to meet expected forecasts according to the EOA. In order to respond to this situation, the City has three alternatives to consider. The City may choose to do nothing, wait to potentially expand the UGB, or update the Development Code. Staff recommends updating the Development Code, as this path allows the City to accommodate greater job density while promoting social equity and environmental sustainability—values reflected by the Strategic Plan and City Council Goals. If the Commission and Council provide direction to continue developing land use policy and Development Code updates, staff will: •Move forward with drafting updates and consultant review; • Conduct a second round of community engagement; and •Return with recommendations to consider for adoption OTHER ALTERNATIVES Consider staff recommendation to revise the Development Code to accommodate job density, social equity, and environmental sustainability, as a policy direction. Alternatives include: •Direct staff to pursue Development Code updates but propose a different approach than that presented in this briefing. Provide staff with specific directives, identifying objectives, concerns, and standards that should be addressed. •Doing nothing: allow the market to respond to employment changes and lack of developable land. •Wait to potentially expand the UGB: allow Metro to decide whether existing rural reserves should be re-evaluated as urban reserves with the potential for annexation into the City of Tigard. COUNCIL GOALS, POLICIES, APPROVED MASTER PLANS City Strategic Plan Objective 3.1 — Pursue land development that maximizes public health benefits while increasing connection between people and community destinations. City Strategic Plan Objective 3.2 — Focus development-associated resources in parts of the city that have the capacity to serve, house, employ, and attract the most people with the least impact on Tigard's systems and the climate. City Strategic Plan Objective 3.3 — Understand the effects of development on vulnerable Tigard residents and mitigate these impacts within projects over time. City Strategic Plan Objective 3.5 — Plan and create in a manner that reduces climate impacts to the maximum extent practicable, especially for those most vulnerable. City Council Goal 2 Outcome - A thriving Tigard community post-pandemic. City Council Goal 3 Outcome —A reduced carbon footprint for the City. DATES OF PREVIOUS COUNCIL CONSIDERATION November 17, 2020: First briefing on project direction and objectives. Attachments MADE Attachment 1 MADE Attachment 2 MADE Attachment 3 MADE Attachment 4 Atiodr MT 111 1111P-vvv TIGARD MADE Maintain,Advance&Diversify Employment Community Outreach: Phase I Tigard MADE: Community Input Summary Staff conducted extensive community outreach while developing potential updates to land use policies and the Development Code, recognizing that changes need be built on the real needs and concerns of community members, this includes residents, commercial property owners, businesses and employees. Our outreach approach included: • A website with information and surveys for business owners and residents. 226 participants spent time on at least one tab, 126 residents completed a survey, and 34 business owners completed a survey. • Presentations via hosted events, with more than 35 business owners. • Individual interviews with 38 business owners, developers, and planning experts. Community Input Business Owners In order to understand local business owner perspective, staff: • Held two events for the Spanish-speaking business community with Adelante Mujeres (with 20 and 15 participants, respectively). • Held one event for the English-speaking business community with the Tigard Chamber of Commerce (with 12 participants). • Presented at the January 2021 Oregon Association of Minority Entrepreneurs (OAME) Coffee and Issues meeting, to listen to the concerns of 86 members of the regional business community and share information on MADE. • Hosted an online survey for business owners, available in both English and Spanish. We received 34 responses (33 in English, 1 in Spanish). • Conducted interviews with five business owners via Microsoft Teams. Feedback from business owners indicates broad support for expanding allowable uses throughout the city. Most business owners indicate an interest in occupying flex space, small offices, mixed-use developments, and strip malls while desiring to be further away from large format retail and heavy manufacturing. They note the most tor AM,I11117.: TIGARD MADE Maintain,Advance&DiversifyEmployment Community Outreach: Phase I important aspects of choosing a business location are access to highways and major roads; access to loans, funding, and assistance programs; affordable rent; and flexible parking requirements. New or prospective business owners note a need for assistance with funding and navigating the process of starting a business in Tigard. Outreach thus also served as an opportunity to introduce these new community members to the city's existing economic development programs that support new businesses. Residents In order to understand resident concerns and desires regarding Tigard's employment land and local commercial activity, staff hosted an online survey, available in English and Spanish, which received 126 responses. Resident survey responses indicated a demand for coffee shops, takeout, and restaurants close to home, followed by personal service, convenience food stores, and retail. Responses show support of these uses within .25-.5 miles of home. On the other hand, surveys indicate a desire for warehouse, large format retail, offices, and flex spaces at least a mile from home. Responses also show that residents' highest priorities when looking for employment opportunities are pay and commute. Business Owner and Resident Support for Appropriate Land Uses 90% Within Walking or Biking Distance (.5 mile radius) a. a 80% c 70% II i I Ia ii ii lull on cko3 `antis `etia` .eey `�fi ;Ocey a`e �e a�`o �otee as ao oa ecy �e 5 5Q e� � e os v aca ses� Eo ca�5 Oso pooh ,,k,-9" s 0°+ o°�a 5 C o 0 LI" oQ � co s5 ce fi 4 �� ee4r O`�e a Qe c`e� yaca `OtieS o�� `off 4c‘ `ops Qace Q a`%et uCi, \e+ a` 44 Types of Businesses ■Business Owners a Residents Figure I Vhile business owners show suppot for a broader range of land uses located close to their businesses, residents generally desire businesses to operate fifrtherfivin home.However, both groups indicate a strongerpreerence for coffee shops, takeout restaurants,and dine-in restaurants within a half mile of their location. Note:823 percent of resident respondents own the place where they live. a !ATM m =';14. • °i ;Mt TIGARD MADE Maintain.Advance&Diversity Employment Community Outreach: Phase I Builders, Bankers, and Brokers In order to understand development constraints and market demand, staff held 15 interviews with members of the local and regional development community (i.e. professionals in commercial banking, development, and real estate in Tigard or the Metro region). Development professionals advocate for predictable land use standards, review processes, incentives structures, and subsidies or fee waivers to aid in meeting project bottom lines for innovative developments. They broadly support bringing together a mix of land uses and economic activity in new development, with the note that certain projects may not yet be feasible in a suburban environment (i.e. mixed-use structures with industrial ground floors) and that financing may not yet be available for certain types of redevelopment (i.e. conversion of office buildings to residential mixed-use). Planning Experts In order to translate feedback into effective land use regulations, staff: • Attended the 2021 American Planning Association National Planning Conference, with a focus on sessions that addressed equity, sustainability, and mixed-use development. • Conducted interviews with five representatives of City planning departments or private planning-related firms. • Hosted a graduate team from Portland State University (PSU), who conducted case studies of five Cities throughout the nation and held interviews with 13 planning experts from across the country to explore Tigard MADE themes. Planning experts highly recommend the use of incentive structures and predictable yet flexible standards. Incentive structures are most effective when tied directly to reducing development costs. Standards are most effective when specific enough to avoid confusion and flexible enough to allow for adjustments that align with City objectives. They also encourage pursuing mixed-use zoning, except in industrial areas where residential and commercial encroachment could push out job-dense industrial uses. Planners also identify some key standards that can be used to encourage sustainability (i.e. reduced energy consumption, eco roofs, LEED certification) and equity (i.e. smaller tenant spaces, short term leases, publicly accessible open space). 11111 ■gyma �6s/.. qn TIGARD MADE Maintain.Advance 8 DiversifyEmptoyment Community Outreach: Phase I Conclusion and Next Steps Through Phase I of engagement, staff learned that the most important things for business owners and developers are clarity, predictability, and reduced costs. Residents desire walkable access to small retail, takeout, and coffee services. Planning experts recommend the use of clear but flexible standards, incentives structures, allowed mixing of compatible uses, and preserving industrial zones. Overall, community input indicates support for opening up more of the City's employment land to a mixture of uses, with the caveat that this be done intentionally and with heavier industrial uses still located further from residential and commercial nodes. During Phase II of this project, staff will share more specific land use updates with the residential, business, and development community to gauge interest and concern regarding potential changes. Phase II will include continued conversations with existing business owners and property owners located in MADE-covered employment zones, hosting online or in-person town halls, and conducting additional interviews. EILL=0 TIGARD MADE Maintain,Advance&Diversify Employment Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) Graphics Projected Share of Total Employment by Industry, 2041 T.W.U. Real Estate Government Education 1,2M jobs 1,032 jobs 533 jobs 2,054 jobs Other Services 2,097 jobs Information Construction 2,191 jobs 0,007 jobs Manufacturing 2,586 jobs Wholesale Trade Management & Admin. 3,052 jobs Services 8,553 jobs Leisure Hospitality 4,3 bs Professional & Finance & Insurance Technical Services 4,630 jobs 8,291 jobs Health Care 5,992 jobs Retail Trade 7,787 jobs Figure 1 Given the City's existing Development Code and land use policies, the construction, professional services, and health care industries are expected to provide the greatest number of jobs in Tigard by 2041. Attachment 1 1PLt LLu.t---:c o 'I Am TIGARD MADE Maintain,Advance&Diversity Employment Projected Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) by Industry 3.50% 0 3.00% ,24 No 2.50% `'°' -o L- to op 2.00% , ,P. x 1.50% J ID EE _x S WxWA 441.1 tJ\ C:b �J (4` 'D'4`o„ •�'4b �4'`0, c,'b'S •\`tae <4\`e5 0.�`C ,c\\�� *eco 'C(e6 `e' \c¢, ascr 'S• cue lip o<,Q ,mac a4 �\e `c7e eat iac, Jec� �a \,,,,, er\oa �,e Pa.�^ \off J`�.�. �o� �,fro\eh ire ago C�° Q�e a� 4t • Q`okey�` bac` Industries Projected to Grow Figure 2 The fastest percentage growth rates from 2021-2041 are projected ftr professional services, health care, transportation/warehousing &utilities, and leisure and hospitality. Attachment 1 L— 8 =EN ■� .aee TIGARD MADE Maintain,Advance&Diversify Employment Projected Job Density by Building Type 45.00% 0 40.00% C7 -2 35.00% E d 30.00% CU 25.00% v �o I I III H ai a 20.00% 15.00% 0.0 10.00% ca CU 5.00% CL 0.00% Retail Space Office Space Warehouse Space Flex/B.P.Space General Industrial Institutional Space Space Land Demand and Employment Accommodated by Building Type •Share of Projected Land Demand(Percentage of Total Net Acres Projected) ■Share of Projected Employment Growth Accomodated(Percentage of Total New Employees Projected) Figure 3 Retail, office, and warehouse .space account for nearly equal shares of projected land demand from 2021-2041. However, employment housed in office space accounts for nearly double the share of employment growth when compared with retail space and about five times the share accommodated by warehouse space. Essentially, the same amount of land can provide jobs for two to five times more employees in an office versus a retail or warehouse setting. This demonstrates the crucial need to further investigate the potential impacts of land use regulations on job density in the City. Attachment 1 DRAFT 1.4 'v ., , ;4 7 - o w 'r `�"� = , � xt _ + �' 5 ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS (OREGON STATEWIDE PLANNING GOAL 9) Prepared For: City of Tigard, Oregon July 2021 a , ,.... „.. .„... .... ..., ,E..E c Ili, Als; , TIGARD MADE Maintain,Advance&Diversify Employment �It� i TIGARD MADE Maimain,Advance6 Deera Acknowledgments Johnson Economics prepared this report for the City of Tigard, with support and analysis by Mackenzie and Angelo Planning Group. The consulting partners and the City of Tigard thank the many people who helped to develop this document. City Staff Hope Pollard,Associate Planner Lloyd Purdy, Economic Development Manager Tom McGuire,Asst.Community Development Director Consultants Jerry Johnson,Johnson Economics Brendan Buckley,Johnson Economics Matt Hastie,Angelo Planning Group Brian Varricchione, Mackenzie Sid Hariharan, Mackenzie Prepared by Johnson Economics LLC 621 SW Alder Avenue, Suite 605 Portland, OR 97205 (503) 295-7832 haw ACKEWZI E. JOHNSON rRtsers + FX3 ECONOMICS CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS II TIGARD MADE Marltain,Mance s DiversfyEmployment Table of Contents INTRODUCTION 1 II. STATEMENT OF ECONOMIC OBJECTIVES 2 III. ECONOMIC TRENDS 4 NATIONAL TRENDS 4 WASHINGTON COUNTY ECONOMIC TRENDS 11 CITY OF TIGARD ECONOMIC TRENDS 17 Population and Workforce 20 IV. MAJOR INDUSTRIES ANALYSIS 24 LOCAL EMPLOYMENT SNAPSHOT 24 Characteristics of Local Firms 26 ECONOMIC SPECIALIZATION 29 ECONOMIC DRIVERS 33 PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 35 WORKFORCE CHARACTERISTICS OF MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTORS 36 Diversity 36 Job Skills 37 Average Wages by Industry 40 TIGARD INDUSTRIES COMPARISON 41 V. EMPLOYMENT LAND USE&DEVELOPMENT TRENDS 43 AVERAGE EMPLOYMENT DENSITY 43 LAND USE AND BUILDING EFFICIENCY 43 ADAPTIVE REUSE 46 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 47 EQUITABLE DEVELOPMENT 49 VI. FORECAST OF EMPLOYMENT AND LAND NEED 53 CITY OF TIGARD EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS 53 Overview of Employment Forecast Methodology 53 Scenario 1:Safe Harbor Forecast 54 Scenario 2:Alternative Employment Forecast 55 Summary of Employment Forecast Scenarios 56 EMPLOYMENT LAND FORECAST S7 Land Demand Analysis—Baseline Forecast 57 EMPLOYMENT LAND NEED FORECAST—NEEDED SITE SIZES 61 Additional Considerations in Land Demand 61 VII. RECONCILIATION OF LAND NEED&SUPPLY 63 CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS III I. INTRODUCTION This report introduces analytical research presenting an Economic Opportunities Analysis(EOA)for the City of Tigard,Oregon. Cities are required under the Oregon Statewide Land Use Planning system to periodically prepare estimates of future employment land demand with existing inventories of vacant and redevelopable employment land within their Urban Growth Boundary(UGB).These estimates and the associated analysis of the local economy and policy recommendations are collectively known as an Economic Opportunities Analysis(EOA) and are an adopted ancillary document to the city's Comprehensivel3lan. The principal purpose of the analysis is to plan for an adequate land supply for economic development and employment growth in the community.Findings on forecasted land need and supply inform land use policies, infrastructure planning, community involvement,and coordination among local governm'e,r s=.and the state. "''. k. C F VPS. To this end,this report is organized into the followinglp miry sections: .' • Statement of Economic Objectives: L+aysrout the the primary ecOrornic objectives and assumptions underlying this analysis. This'statement is derived from the CjtVStrategic Plan (2020-2025). ti";4 A.4ab, , • Economic Trends:Provides an overview of national;'stateand local economic trends affecting Washington County and the City of,Tigard, including'population projections, employment growth and a demographic profile. s ;" Yom. • Major Industries:Analyzes current ad'projected'representation'of major industry sectors in Tigard,and implications growthrend land need.. • Employment'Land Needs:Presents projections,of demand for industrial and commercial land based on anticipated employment growth rates,by sector. eke t. •' Capacity Sumrrlarizes.the'City's inventoryof vacant, partially vacant, and redevelopable industrial and-commercial,land(employment land)within City of Tigard's corporate limits. • Reconciliation: Compares the projected short-and long-term demand for employment land to the existing land inventory to deterrtiine the adequacy and appropriateness of capacity over a five' n'd,twenty-year liorizpn. • Conclusions:Presents asummary of findings and policy implications. rr The prior Economic Opportunities Analysis for the City of Tigard was adopted in 2011. Since that time, the community,the region,and the country have all experienced changes in employment,land supply, and macro-economic trends. Two urban reserve areas are currently under planning as River Terrace 2.0 and will also include some employment land(not included in the current inventory). These changes are reflected in the following analysis and inventory of buildable lands. Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 9:Economic Development In addition to providing an analysis of the City's economic opportunities and needs,this report is intended to meet the requirements of Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 9 and the requirements for an EOA as specified in the administrative rules that implement Goal 9(OAR 660-009). CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 1 II. STATEMENT OF ECONOMIC OBJECTIVES The focus of the City of Tigard is on efficient use of its existing land supply and urban reserves, as the community approaches buildout of its existing land supply and has limited opportunities available for further expansion of the UGB. The City aspires to encourage efficient use of its available land through planning and land use policy.To achieve this goal,commercial and industrial land should be well-planned to accommodate high employment density of living/family wage jobs, and promote social equity, and environmental sustainability. The three objectives enumerated below were developed to align this employment land study with the City's forward-looking 2021 Strategic Plan. The Strategic Plan is the,best`and most recent representation of Council goals and incorporates the community planning that went before it: The Strategic Plan includes the following objectives most relevant to this study: • • Build a resilient local economy in which residents' health and the•health of local businesses increase together. �" • Blend land uses to support a range of co me tial and employment opportunities within and in proximity to residential neighborhoods. • Locate and grow businesses to support walkability,connectivity, and accessibility for all business location decisions. ` • Build mixed-use development that isinclusive'of,housing, slopping, employment, services and ' integrates transportation options. ,d1 ' a. • Plan and create in a manner that reduces climate impacts to the maximum extent practicable, especially for those most vulnerable. ‘.t- : •4 ° • Advance equitable,economit opportunity. 1, Objective 1:-A Vibrant,Diverse.and:ScalableEconomic Base Tigard will: ' , rk A. Foster efficient development and redevelopment of employment lands, leveraging existing infrastructure and local and regional:transportation assets. B. Provide flexible zoningrtl at allows for mixing of uses and building types, co-location of Aff complementary businesses,;'and future growth on site. C. Encourage siteavailabilityto accommodate business growth and career advancement opportunities to-niedi it-to-high-skilled jobs for local residents,with living wage(for individuals) and family wage jobs: D. Discourage the use of remaining employment lands by industries that tend to have a low average employment density on site. E. Facilitate home-based businesses (a.k.a. home occupations), side businesses, and opportunities for self-employment,with assistance for transitions to brick-and-mortar locations. Objective 2: An Equitable Economy Tigard's economic development focused land use policy will: CITY OFTIGARD ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 2 A. Foster new and existing entry-level living-wage jobs with opportunities for continued career advancement. B. Incent affordable commercial rents and business spaces. C. Simplify development code standards to promote growth of new,small,and local businesses and development. D. Identify and mitigate nuisances,hazards,and negative externalities near more affordable business districts and residences. Objective 3: Sustainable Development •a. Tigard's economic development focused land use policy will: e. A. Encourage sustainable development by incenting straieg.es'such as reduced energy consumption, higher energy efficiency, reduced greenhouse gasqeinissforlS;4i4nsportation management plans, and on-site renewable energy production andu`se;.. B. Incent and implement improvements to thevedestrian network,bicycle facilities,and recreational trails linking businesses and residences. ;~- C. Incent provision of publicly accessible open<space and the protection of wexer''ways,habitats,and other sensitive environmental resources. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 3 III. ECONOMIC TRENDS This section summarizes long and intermediate-term trends at the national,state, and local level that may influence economic conditions in the City of Tigard over the 20-year planning period. It also provides an economic context for growth projections and establishes a socioeconomic profile of the community.This report's national evaluation is focused on potential changes in structural socioeconomic conditions both nationally and globally. The analysis considers local growth trends, demographics, and economic performance. 40 NATIONAL TRENDS t ' Coming out of the prior recession,the United States enjoyed‘a sustained economic expansion beginning in 2011, which was sharply curtailed by the Covid-19 pandemic beginning,inMarch 2020. The economic climate of 2020 and 2021 has been unusually volatile,-with a great deal ofncertainty regarding the duration of the pandemic as well as the impact of\policy responses to address it However,as of the time of this report,widespread vaccination and the re-opening of the economy point toward recovery. Specific observed and anticipated impacts':of the pandemic'on the economy will be addressed later in this narrative. Because of the temporary antl-extrerne-nature of the.pandemic, much of this discussion focuses on longer-term trends that were in place before tI-4 t4period of disrupt o The extent to which the economy will revert to long-term trends, and on which:economic measures, is still unresolved at the time of this study. ' ; t. L. e At a national level there has been anon-going shift within the economy from consumption of domestically produced goods to consumption of services, especially services oriented around personal well-being •(A'' , (health, private education,,finance). This,is reflective.;of decreased costs of offshore production and increasing.levels o f Wealth and.discretionarynco€ne in the population.At the same time,growth in fixed investment (equipment and structures) and government defense spending is moderating — making manufactured goods a less,-rnportan't�part of the economy proportionally. r' s`•-•,."1 .' . A commonly,used and reportedsmeasure of economic prosperity is real gross domestic product(GDP).Real GDP is essentiaiiy irneasure of national wealth adjusted for inflation,and the increased purchasing power of the population lta slates into greater investment in health care, education, housing, leisure,and many other factors. U.S. real Gp expanded at an average annual rate of 2.3%from 2010 through 2019, before 3.5%in 2020 due to the{pandemic. In comparison,the average growth rate over the 1970 to 1999 period was 3.2%. Potential GDP growth indicates future long-term growth at around 2.0% per year(correcting for volatility in inflation). Over the last century,the average annual growth rate has been 1.8%, despite considerable shifts in economic and social conditions. 2.0%growth would represent a reversion to this mean, after a period of stronger growth over the second half of the 20th Century. Long-term economic growth is more related to broad trends, such as population growth and investment in physical and human capital, than temporary economic fluctuations. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 4 FIGURE 3.01:NATIONAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT TRENDS PERCENT CHANGE IN REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT s 6 4 2IIIIIiiIiiiiiiiIIII.1iiiii.... "I'll" -2 _4 -6 ,, cOl'1AS�ra144P e 91ry1�1b1�,tto 1eSb 1�°11e 00'0.0'1e.0'��r .0 cO°.'Lry .0°kO0ry �°^1�°.ybry�rc�°y4re o! oP ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE IN GDP COMPONENTS Personal consumption expenditures 30 Gross private domestic investment Imports Exports 20 ----Government consumption 10 k O'` 4 r 'ak r� f 46000"es ihir � ��: 3 --46 -10 -20 -30 P� .se fid°e°$��°olti°� 9^ea0�# �tiaQ°aa0a�° �° 6ti�a�6d�� 5 d'ti 0 .Pbc$ 6'°01�°�°i. ee 'b 'ti 1 S L 's 'ti 1 'ti 'ti L 1 S 'v '> 1 7 1 > > ti ti ti ti ti 1 ti ti 1 ti ti SOURCE:US Bureau of Economic Analysis While the recent expansion cycle was expected to end in the next year or two, the pandemic brought growth to an unprecedented halt in March 2020.Real GDP at the national level declined 5%during the first quarter, and then 31.4% in the second quarter of 2020, before rebounding strongly for the remainder of the year. A strong rebound in personal consumption, private investment, and exports offset modest declines in consumption.An unusual characteristic of the current downturn is that incomes increased due to high levels of stimulus spending. Fiscal policy responses replaced a significant share of lost income for many working- CITY OFTIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 5 class households.Personal savings have also surged over the past year,as households were consuming less of some goods and services such as travel and dining. FIGURE 3.02:REAL GDP GROWTH BY CONTRIBUTING SECTOR 200% 150% 3 100% C Q v 50% d wwir— I T c -50% 0 N N -100% 150% N.h yh N.°' N.') pro to N.ro N.co N.1 N.1 N.1 N.1 N.9 N.9 tiW 14' N.c5 y0 �°' yc) Lo ,Lo 1L0 ,Lo 'LN. N.. "V 50 tO N.4 Lc>.,)4•�4 N. . 1) ad N LO ) to N. Lo- ) QO N Lo- �o d N.o Personal Consumption Gross Private Investment Net Exports •Government Consumption U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis Employment growth ranged between 1.4%and 2.2% (year-over-year) in the most recent expansion cycle from 2011 but declined an unprecedented 13.5%in Spring of 2020 as many businesses were forced to close. A significant amount of this loss has been recovered as the economy reopens,with recent growth of nearly 11%year-over-year compared to the lows. FIGURE 3.03:YEAR OVER YEAR EMPLOYMENT GROWTH,UNITED STATES 15% 10.9% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -13.5% -15% YN. yN. yL yL y3 y3 yTx 'y0` y5 y5 yro N.to �A N.A N.4 fro ti� N.g ti0 LO Nr >ac \ >ac >�\ >a >\ >a >\ >a > >a� >` > >\ > ' \ > Nos \"1, >a� SOURCE:US Bureau of Labor Statistics,CES Data CITY OFTIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 6 At a national level, transportation and warehousing, professional services, tourism-related business, construction, and health care have seen some of the fastest growth over the last decade. Professional services and healthcare are now the sectors with the highest employment and are projected to provide the most new employment going forward,but at a more moderate growth rate. The aging of the population is expected to drive the healthcare sector over the next few decades. FIGURE 3.04:NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR,HISTORIC AND PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY,HISTORIC AND PROJECTED AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE Agriculture,forestry,fishing,and ---— 11.11.1.11.1- huntngf3M •2009 -0.2% 1 4/ Mining .: `: 2019 1.3°0 Construction - 2.2% 2029 Manufaetunna . 0.8% -0.4% utgeles -(12% ''1 -0.8% Wholesale trade —0.7% -0.2% Retell trade -02% IIIIIIIIIII 0.7% Transportation and warehousing Information - 0.0%, • Financial activities .. 1.1% Professional and business service, 2.3% Eduotional services 2.0% Health area nd social assistance 1 1111111111111111111111111111 2.1% Leisure and hospltaldy111111111111111111.11111111111111. �2.4% other smNcesMOM WM 0.9% Federal governmentimp -0.7% " a 2009.2019 State and local governmentimimminim 0.0% 0.2% Nosegrcuhure nelf-employedagNer -0,2% M 2019-2029 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% THOUSANDS OF 1013S t AAGR SOURCE:US Bureau of Economic Analysis Recent trends and current forecasts reflect a shift from a production-based economy, featuring domestic manufacturing and natural resource extraction, toward a service-based economy that emphasizes technological innovation, research,and design. E-Commerce Trends: A national trend that is expected to have significant implications for the commercial and industrial real estate market is the anticipated growth in e-commerce.Online shopping is rapidly taking market share from brick-and-mortar retailers, making up more than 11% of all retail sales before the pandemic. In 2020,the market share of e-commerce jumped dramatically to more than 16%of all sales as households more frequently shopped from home. It has since fallen to roughly 14%but is likely to remain higher than pre-pandemic levels and pose an ongoing challenge for brick-and-mortar retailers. In 2020 consumers spent$787.9 billion online with U.S.retailers, up 32%from 20191. This shift toward e-commerce is contributing to an increase in storage needs from retail stores to warehouses and distribution centers. At the same time, increased automation is driving consolidation 1 US Department of Commerce CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 7 within the warehousing and distribution industry and increasing the reliance on larger third-party operators able to make heavy investments in warehousing capital and expertise. Automation is also impacting the manufacturing industry,though to a lesser extent and primarily among large industry leaders. Increased productivity through automation continues to reduce the reliance on human labor over time. FIGURE 3.05:E-COMMERCE AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL RETAIL SALES,UNITED STATES 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% N m V o tD n 00 M 0 .-i m a Ln to W 11:5‘ O OOO6OOOOOQ O O O O O O O O O O O N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N SOURCE:Retail Indicators Branch,US Census Bureau,JOHNSON ECONOMICS FIGURE 3.06:RETAIL EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY TYPE SINCE MARCH 2020,STATE OF OREGON OREGON EMPLOYMENT CHANGE SINCE MARCH 2020 10% 5% +1,800 +1600 0% -5% -10% _ -7,600 -15% -20% Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 —E-Commerce Brick&Mortar + •Ali Other Retail SOURCE:Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Finally, changes in the use of mobile devices and growth in online services have caused a shift in the tech sector, from hardware manufacturing to software development. This pattern has been reflected in the CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 8 State of Oregon, with e-commerce employment increasing at the expense of brick-and-mortar retail employment. Work from Home Trends: A major and sudden shift caused by the shutdown of many workplaces during the Covid-19 pandemic is that many employers and employees were forced to adapt quickly from a physical shared workplace to a work-from-home model. This trend differed greatly across industries and job classification. On-going trends towards increased e-commerce and automation also accelerated. A national poll conducted by Pew Research2 in October of 2020 fougdtt those with higher incomes and educational attainment level reported being able to work from home:at<a much higher rate than those with '{ less education and lower incomes. Sixty-two percent of thong with a;bachelor's degree or more education were able to work from home, compared to 23%without a jfeg deg e . Seventy-six percent of those identified as lower income, and 63% of those identified'as middle income reported that they had job responsibilities that they could not do from home,-while only 44%of upperincome responders reported `SN" , the same. �' * �, As of the time of this study,great uncertainty remains on the continuing prevalence of th wok-from-home trend after the abatement of pandemic shutdowns. Most economists seem to agree that remote work is unlikely to remain at the peak level seen during:the pandem c.and may even fall significantly. However, � N, there is also widespread agreement that•t •natures•of.work for Many workers has permanently changed, •and many of the shifts seen since spring 60020will persist at much.higher levels than seen before the pandemic. 54% of remote workers in the Pew-poll repo'ted that they would like to continue to work remotely,and larger majority of the respondents xeported,that most expects of the transition were easy. The following are a few of the majortrends and impli,ations that are broadly predicted resulting from this unusual period; , 4,4y �+ Professional work-...that typically took place inian office environment is anticipated to maintain Luch more flexibility;for many workers. The expectations of individual employers will matter `greatly in whether workers remdinremote, hybrid or return to the office full time. Many large te`entemployers suchSasffacebook,a'nd Amazon will allow some workers to work remote permanently. Some major,firms in finance have announced that they expect a full return to the office. How this trend settles out in the long term is unknown, but it seems a near certainty that many more professional.workers will be working remotely or in a hybrid remote/on-site schedule. • The difference between fully remote work and a hybrid schedule is important, because hybrid workers must still remain within a manageable commute distance from their external workplace. A large share of hybrid workers among the region's workforce can have the benefit of reducing traffic congestion. • These trends are expected to put downward pressure on office rents, as firms need less space going forward. More available space and depressed rents would likely translate into less production of new office space in coming years as the existing supply is reabsorbed. • The pandemic has accelerated workplace automation as companies have adopted new technology and software to adapt to the new reality. Many of these adaptations have created permanent 2 Parker,Kim,Juliana Horowitz,and Rachel Minkin. "How the Coronavirus Outbreak Has-and Hasn't-Changed the Way Americans Work." Pew Research Center. 9 Dec.2020. CITY OF TIGARD ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 9 efficiencies and will change the job responsibilities for some workers and potentially eliminate some jobs. The adoption of new messaging,meeting and collaboration systems is likely to reduce the need for some in-person administrative functions. • Industries that were not amenable to remote work,such as dining,entertainment,and retail have faced a very challenging period during the occupancy and use restrictions stemming from the pandemic. These industries all lost businesses and the accompanying jobs over this period. The Federal Reserve estimates that over the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic(roughly April 2020 to April 2021) an additional 200,000 businesses closed over the expected rate. The Fed estimates that hair and nail salons, barbers, and other providers of personal services were the hardest hit making up half of the excess lost businesses. As the economy reopens and recovers,there is expected to be more vacant commercial real estate available, including spaces that retain full tenant improvements such as those for restaurant use.The misfortune of some businesses over the prior year may provide affordable opportunities new businesses to grow in their place. Some large-format spaces, such as big box stores, movie theaters and shopping centers may face long term vacancies as they are more difficult to re-tenant. Statewide Employment Projections: The economic context is more complicated and uncertain than typical due to the impact of the current pandemic and current and future policy responses.While the national and regional economy was expanding as late as February 2020, the pandemic triggered an unprecedented contraction of economic activity.While roughly 60%of employment losses in the state have been reversed, the short- and mid-term prospects for the economy will be heavily dependent upon the speed of the continuing recovery. As of late Spring 2021,trends in employment growth, consumer and travel spending, shrinking unemployment rolls,and vaccination rates point to a potentially robust reversal of the prior year's losses. Our current employment forecast for the State of Oregon projects that a return to pre-pandemic employment levels will be achieved by Spring of 2022. Because of the unprecedented nature of the current economic swoon,there is increased uncertainty regarding this forecast.One potential scenario is that most of the prior employment is recovered relatively quickly,while restoring the final 5%to 10%takes longer. FIGURE 3.07:EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS,STATE OF OREGON 2% E0% „a,,�..r.. . o -2% r M N -4% a -6% of -8% -10% Actual E -12% — Forecasted 15 -14% -16% �a >, V •c< 4'fr�tio oe`tio ��`titi >�titi ��~1 a`,yti c ti N SOURCE:JOHNSON ECONOMICS CITY OFTIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 10 WASHINGTON COUNTY ECONOMIC TRENDS GDP: Washington County recorded strong growth during the recent expansion cycle,with the annual rate of GDP change in the County averaging nearly 5%since 2014. After rebounding strongly from the recession of 2009,the County experienced flat growth in 2012 and 2013. In general, the 2010's experienced more moderated GDP growth than the 2000's which experienced some years of double-digit expansion. FIGURE 3.08:ANNUAL RATE OF GDP CHANGE,WASHINGTON COUNTY ANNUAL RATE OF GDP CHANGE,WASHINGTON COUNTY tn 20% 15% Ln N o e-1 h O ei 10% �' o► aR Ql i off° m u71 Ii . iiii1i in ea, M m -5% 00'1 e e e e 061 e ee c$1" ee Otis Oyto 011 e Otis ti ti ti ti ' ti ti ti ' ti ti ' ' ti ' i i ti SOURCE:US Bureau of Economic Analysis These data do not yet reflect the recession of 2020, in which the County is presumed to have experienced highly negative GDP in keeping with the national trend. While the impacts of the prior year are important, there currently is no reason to assume that broad economic trends will not revert to prior trendlines as the recovery takes hold and returns the country to low unemployment and economic growth. Given the long- term planning horizon of this analysis, a longer-term focus is ultimately more appropriate. County Employment: Over the last two decades, Washington County has generally experienced a higher employment growth rate than the state or nation. The County also experienced a greater rate of job loss in the major recessions of 2001 and 2009,but the downtrends were short-lived. (Figure 3.09) CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 11 FIGURE 3.09:COMPARISON OF ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATES (COUNTY,STATE,NATION) ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% \ 1 -2% / -3% -4% -5% m O .-1 N m V' Ut cO h 00 et 0 e-4 N m ':)" h CO O m O O O O O O O O O O O O El O O E> O N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N National State of Oregon Washington County -- i SOURCE:U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis,JOHNSON ECONOMICS The cumulative impact of this growth is an over 50%expansion in the local employment base since 1998 in Washington County(from 246k jobs to nearly 400k jobs). The County's cumulative growth was twice the relative growth in state or national employment. FIGURE 3.10:CUMULATIVE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH(1998=100) (COUNTY,STATE,NATION) CUMMULATIVE GROWTH RATE 160 s 150 0o SI 140 rt 130 r 120 e 110 uci 100 0a 90 W 80 0o et O N m V Ln N 00 61 O ri N m Q U1 N CO e1 Qt et O O O O O O O O O O 1-4 .-1 .-I ri .-7 e-1 .-1 .-1 et et O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O ri r-I N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N National State of Oregon Washington County SOURCE:U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis,JOHNSON ECONOMICS CITY OFTIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 12 The employment base in Washington County has a lower share of self-employed workers than the state and national averages, at roughly 20%,compared to 23%. The somewhat lower level of self-employment in Washington County is likely due to the number of large established employers in the county. Wage and salary employment accounts for roughly 80%of overall estimated employment in the county,compared to roughly 77%statewide and nationally. FIGURE 3.11:%OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT REPRESENTED BY SELF-EMPLOYMENT (COUNTY,STATE,NATION) %OF SELF-EMPLOYMENT(NON-WAGE&SALARY EMPLOYMENT) 26% 24% 22% 0 18% 16% 14% oo Ot O a-1 N M cr U) 4.0 N 00 C t 0 .-i N M 'ct Ut to N 00 0) 0) 0) O O O 0 O 0 0 O 0 0 e-1 .-1 1-1 .-i a-1 --I ri m m O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O .-1 N N N NNNNN N N N N N N N N N N N N National State of Oregon Washington County SOURCE U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Countywide employment growth was robust over the last decade through 2019,with the county recovering the total job losses from the 2008 national financial crisis within three years (Figure 3.12). From 2011 through 2019, the County averaged 3% job growth per year, outpacing the average annual population growth in that period(1.2%). CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 13 FIGURE 3.12:WASHINGTON COUNTY EMPLOYMENT TRENDS PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY YEAR,WASHINGTON COUNTY 5% 4% 3% 1111 2% �t 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% so O) o •-i N rn t7 in l0 N CO N to l!) RID IN CO C) Ci C) O CD CD O O O 0 0 0 0 .1 .-$ .i .-I .-1 .1 rt .-r H .1 C) C) O O O O O O O 0000000000000 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N TOTAL EMPLOYMENT LEVEL,WASHINGTON COUNTY 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 25 0,0 00 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 tb C) 0 .1 N M ct 111 lD nt 00 0) 0 e'1 N m V I.f) ID I. CO 0) C) 0) O O O 0 0 CD O O 0 0 rI 41 v-I 1-1 11 .-t 4-1 r1 ei .1 C) C) O O O O O O O O O O O O O CD O O O O 0 CD R-4 .1 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N SOURCE:U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis Monthly Current Employment Statistics(CES)data and unemployment data provide a more current picture of the economic impacts of the pandemic in Washington County. Following the national trend,the impacts on employment were pronounced. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 14 Initial estimates are that the county lost nearly 40,000 jobs(12.7%)from the high point in February 2020 to April 2020. Tepid job growth resumed the next month and has continued since, other than a small dip in December. (CES data excludes government,farm,and self-proprietor employment and therefore the total employment shown here differs from the total employment shown in the prior tables. Therefore, CES trends may best be seen as an indicator of the magnitude of employment trends, rather than quantity.) FIGURE 3.13:WASHINGTON COUNTY EMPLOYMENT LEVEL BY MONTH TOTAL EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY(CES) 350,000 300,000 cd t 250,000 W 200,000 150,000 c0 c L 3 A h ro ayA % O00000y c c c Sac \aSaSaSaSaSaaSaSaSaSaSSSayti SOURCE:Oregon Employment Department,JOHNSON ECONOMICS FIGURE 3.14:COMPARISON OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TRENDS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE COMPARISON 18% U.S. 16% Oregon 14% Washington County • 12% ; _ ,- ._ i abaft 10% C grygoo ..V a 4% i € I OO O O 8 8' 8 h M n O 8 8 O e-1 N d u1 �O 00 01 crj O 0000000 0000000000000 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N SOURCE:St.Louis Federal Reserve,JOHNSON ECONOMICS CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 15 Unemployment: After climbing to nearly 10%in 2009,the unemployment rate in Washington County fell steadily to 2.7%by early 2020,lower than the statewide or national rates. The sudden economic impact of the pandemic caused the unemployment rate to suddenly spike in April 2020 to nearly 11%,still lower than the rate at the state(13%)and national level (15%). At the peak of unemployment, over 25,000 workers claimed unemployment benefits. Since then, unemployment has steadily fallen to an estimated at 5.3%(seasonally adjusted)by March 2021, with over 4,300 claimants. This is a swift recovery, and an unemployment rate of 5%,while nearly double the historically low pre-pandemic rate,is approaching what would be considered a healthy rate even in an economic expansion. As the economic recovery continues,this rate should be expected to continue falling, while the recently reported hiring woes of employers, indicate that many of these workers will return to employment at higher wage levels. Industry Growth Forecast: The State of Oregon produces employment forecasts by sector and by sub- regions, which groups Washington County with Multnomah and Clackamas Counties into the broader Metro area. The most recent forecast anticipates a gain of over 113k jobs from 2019 through 2029, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 1.0%during the period.While that forecasted rate would seem quite low considering recent growth in Washington County, a year of growth has been lost due to the pandemic. FIGURE 3.15:PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR WASHINGTON,MULTNOMAH&CLACKAMAS COUNTIES PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY INDUSTRY,2019-2029 AVG.ANNUAL PROJECTED GROWTH RATE Natural resources and mining 600 0.6% Construction r 6,300 1.1% Manufacturing 5,900 UMW 0.5% 0.5% Wholesale trade MI 4,600 0.9% Retail trade -3,600 MINIS 0.4% Transport.,warehousing,utilities w 6,900 1111111111111111111111011.6% Information mi 2,90) 1.2% Financial activities . 1,600 -0.3%. Professional and business services - 28,400 1.6% Education and health '' 24,0001111.111111111111.111111. 1.5% Leisure and hospitality 12,200 111.111111111.111111 1.1% Other services 3,600 1111011110111111 0.9% Federal government 200 0.1% State government 900 1.1% Local government 5,600 MEW 0.6% Self-employment 0., 5,900 111111.1.1W 1.0% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% Employment AAGR SOURCE:State of Oregon Employment Department,Workforce and Economic Research Division All industry sectors are forecast to expand over the next decade. Those forecast to grow at a higher-than- average rate are transportation, warehousing and utilities, professional services, education and health services, and information. Sectors projected to grow near the average rate of 1% are construction, government,and tourism-related industries. CITY OFTIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 16 On an absolute basis,the greatest number of new jobs are forecast in professional services,education and health services,and tourism-related industries. CITY OF TIGARD ECONOMIC TRENDS Employment Distribution &Commuting(City): The distribution of employment in Washington County is concentrated within the UGB of the Portland Metro area. The greatest shares of county employment are found in Hillsboro (29%) and Beaverton (25%) which are home to the county's largest employers. Tigard has the third largest share at 16%of county employment. Within Tigard, employment tends to be concentrated along the 1-S and 217 corridors including the Washington Square Regional Center. FIGURE 3.16:DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT,CITY OF TIGARD,2018 Garden Haney-Whatad I r * • a , �, o £` Mitipea Road a`�� 8a'fAosxHar: It; • 4. t +7 5-633 Jobs/Sq.Mileo '� 634-2,517 Jobs/Sq.Mile Kt 430 • 2,518-5,657 Jobs/Sq.Mile C rye. IN 5,658-10,053 Jobs/Sq.Mile SE 10,054-15,706 Jobs/Sq.Mile • 1-4 Jobs o 5-64 Jobs Durham o 65.324 Jobs 325-1,024 Jobs 1,025.2,500 Jobs SOURCE:Census Bureau,LEND Data Figure 3.17 shows the inflow and outflow of commuters to Tigard according to the Census Employment Dynamics Database.These figures reflect"covered employment"as of 2018,the most recent year available. Covered employment refers to those jobs where the employee is covered by federal unemployment insurance.This category does not include many contract employees and self-employed and therefore is not CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 17 a complete picture of local employment. The figure discussed here is best understood as indicators of the general pattern of commuting and not exact figures. FIGURE 3.17:COMMUTING PATTERNS,CITY OF TIGARD,2018 r,. A W Berme, SW 6ra:o 45 1 Metzge SiYJrN$Efi*1ER7UtY fit«P rn:.ts„ r ` Vfl£ DQE .. . „„„_ „,,,,,,,,z_ s Gra.; £ { N , 1 1 41;6100 0 3,800 24,800 Work in ,Ti and live and work Tigard, Live in Tigard, live elsewhere in Tigard work elsewhere i //, j I:,,I,Mounta 4 e iw :I,,,;,yam IV ( # ,, nom' 1, sw ew'$t, g grY ie+k« kin Iran.Rd — *_ Durham SOURCE:Census Bureau,LEHD Data As of 2018, the most recent year available, the Census estimated there were roughly 45,400 covered employment jobs located in Tigard. Of these,an estimated 3,800 or 8.4%,are held by local residents,while over 41,600 employees commute into the city from elsewhere. This general pattern is fairly common among many communities in the Metro area. The most common homes of local workers commuting into the city are Portland, Beaverton,and Hillsboro. Similarly, of the estimated 28,600 employed Tigard residents, 87% of them commute elsewhere to their employment. The most common destinations for Tigard commuters are also Portland, Beaverton, and Hillsboro,followed by Tualatin and Lake Oswego. Implications: Commuting patterns are an important element in the local economy.They are indicative of the labor shed companies can draw workers from,the extent to which job creation translates into increased demand for housing, goods, and services, and the overall balance of population and employment in the community. Tigard has an estimated 21,300 households as of 2019(Census)meaning that the city features a jobs/household ratio of 2.1 jobs per household,while local households hold an average of 1.3 jobs. This indicates that Tigard is a net-positive employment market that attracts workforce from around the region. This dynamic should present local job options for Tigard residents who would prefer to work closer to home and enjoy shorter commutes. In practice the types of local jobs available do not always match with the employment sectors of local residents. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 18 Figure 3.18 shows a comparison of the estimated distribution of locally available employment by industry sector, and the estimated distribution of jobs that local Tigard residents hold (inside and outside the community)by industry sector. The data show that the employment available locally exceeds the number of workers in the local workforce in those industry sectors. Only in the fields of education, manufacturing,health care,and government do the number of Tigard workers exceed the number of jobs in those fields available from local employers. As we've seen, it is most common for workers to commute to employment outside of the city. But this is an indication that local employment is available in most industry sectors if residents would like to work closer to home. FIGURE 3.18:COMPARISON OF NUMBER OF LOCAL JOBS TO LOCAL WORKFORCE,BY INDUSTRY Local Jobs vs.Local Workforce Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade 111111.11111 Retail Trade IIIINIIIIIralalnillMIMMIMMMMNltj Transport.,Warehouse, Utilities Information E Finance&Insurance111111111111® Real Estate r Professional&Technical Services 1111111111111111.11111111111 Management&Admin.Services Education 111.1116. Health Care . Leisure &Hospitality imimir Other Services 11.1r Local Tigard Jobs Government 16 Working Tigard Residents 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Employment SOURCE:Census Bureau,LEHD Data,Oregon Employment Department The characteristics of the workforce commuting into and out of Tigard were similar in terms of incomes and age(Figure 3.19). Working Tigard residents are slightly more likely to be 30 years or older,and more likely to earn more than$40,000. (These are the broad categories provided by this Census data set.) CITY OFTIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 19 FIGURE 3.19:NET INFLOW-OUTFLOW DETAIL,CITY OF TIGARD AND WASHINGTON COUNTY,2018 Age of Workers Income Groups General Sector In"All Other Aged 55 or older n $40,000 or more Services" In"'trade, Aged 30 to 54 riM $15,000 to$40,000 Transport.,and Utilities"Sector IP IFAged 29 or younger r $15,000 or less In"Goods Producing"Sector 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20%40%60%80% Holders of Local Jobs Holders of Local Jobs Holders of Local Jobs Local Working Residents j'; Local Working Residents Local Working Residents SOURCE:Census Bureau,LEHD Data As Tigard considers its broader economic development objectives, these commuting trends present a negative implication. Mobility and reducing vehicle miles are important elements of long-term sustainability that the widespread cross-commuting among Metro-area communities works against. A majority of both Tigard residents and employees at local businesses commute to work. The Census estimates that of 2019 75%of working local residents commuted to work in a single-occupancy vehicle, an additional 8%carpooled,6%used public transit, and 8%worked from home. Widespread cross-commuting also has equity implications,as lower income and some disabled workers are less likely to have access to a dependable car or may be unable to drive. This increases the importance of having a wide variety of locally available work at a range of wage and skill levels,to reduce commuting times for residents who wish to work closer to home. As noted above, Tigard does feature a pool of local employment larger than the number of working individuals,so fares well on this measure. POPULATION AND WORKFORCE The City of Tigard has an estimated population of 54,500 as of 2020 according to the PSU Population Research Center(Figure 3.20). Population growth has averaged just over 600 residents per year since 2000, but with significant year-to- year fluctuation during that time. Growth has accelerated since 2015,averaging nearly 900 new residents per year,and a growth rate of nearly 2%per year. A major driver of population increases at the local level are surges in housing development and new annexations to the city boundary. In Tigard,the addition of the River Terrace area has coincided with a surge in population as the area has built out with new housing. CITY OF TIGARD ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 20 FIGURE 3.20:POPULATION GROWTH(RESIDENTS AND RATE),CITY OF TIGARD POPULATION GROWTH,TIGARD Q 2000 0� ri 1500 0 0 cv o Mo 0 '" o .i . o ri 1000 00^0 o`oo o o u. 'o N to in {� cr v 500 v v o r" aoo v et cv cc o I1IIiIiiI ; uuiu.`� 0 -500 I 0 0o Tr -1000 ��°p�°°ti'1,. 1, tis?�e eco�c o ti,,O tico�ti �e moo,,,ti„tiry�p13 tioti��o<2 19 'IS)�oti1 tio4, 4,. �ti� ANNUAL RATE OF POPULATION GROWTH ae 4.0% rri 3.0% v a N i. a° rV gco d� O '2.0% '” g ei Y i X d .-m c-,or1.0! o 0c1 n Mn d c 0 0 0 o 0 0 0.0% o ir r -1.0% -- is Tigard 71 Washington County -2.0% '19 '19 �ooti�oo"� '19 '19 �oo`1 goo`°'19 '19 �oob'19 '19 X010 '19 '1.9 �otiti'19 'i9 roti° '19 '19 roti, 'i9 '19�otib roti. tio�o SOURCE:Population Research Center,Portland State University Tigard's population skews younger than statewide figures, with a greater share of the population in the prime work years, and a greater share of children in the community. As with the national trend, and Portland region, the city's population is projected to become increasingly older in the coming decades, as the large Baby Boom generation continues to age into retirement. The long-term impact of this on the local labor force will be a concern moving forward, as the number of younger residents is expected to decline in percentage terms. As Tigard has a greater share of residents under the age of 50 relative to the state, including millennials,these impacts may be somewhat mitigated. A robust local economy with stable, family-supportive employment and affordable housing options can continue to attract net migration of younger households. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 21 Figure 3.21 shows that Tigard has a greater share of the population in prime family-forming and child-raising years(25 to 50 years)relative to the state,and a smaller share of population 60 years and older FIGURE 3.21:DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY AGE COHORT,TIGARD AND OREGON POPULATON BY AGE COHORT 85+ 111.1111112-0% 80-84 -8% Tigard 75-79 11.111111.11411111 Oregon 70-74 111111111111111161601.. 65-69 60-64 55-59 6.3% 50-54 6.0% 0 45-4911111111111.111111111111111.1111ralail 7A% 3 40-44 6.9% o010 35-39 8.5% 30-34 7.9% 25-29 8.2% 20-24amimmnimimisaiae 18-19 11111111111 ' 15-17 � 3.4% 10-14 6.6% 5-9 5.9% 0-41111111111111111111011111111, 55% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% POPULATION BY AGE COHORT 75+ M6.1% a Tigard 65-74 8.5% c a Oregon ��, 55-64ima 12.3% < 18-54 51.8% Under 18 21.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% SOURCE:Population Research Center,Portland State University The educational attainment level of residents in the City of Tigard varies from the statewide pattern,with a high level of residents having bachelor's or advanced degrees. Of an estimated 38,058 persons 25 years or older in the City of Tigard,as estimated 53%have an associate degree or higher.This compares to a 42% CITY OF TIGARD ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 22 rate for Oregon. This represents a likely competitive advantage for the city, as an educated population attracts employers,retail and services,and other economic activity. Working with community colleges and other partners on on-going education,workforce development and distance learning opportunities may be an important part of a local economic development strategy to train segments of the workforce with lower educational attainment in the skills that local industries need. FIGURE 3.21:EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT PROFILE,2018 Tigard State of Oregon Count % Count Less Than High School Graduate 2,698 7.1% 274,182 9.6% High school graduate(includes equivalency) 6,444 16.9% 656,365 23.0% Some college, no degree 8,677 22.8% 732,477 25.7% Associate's degree 3,415 9.0% 249,852 8.8% Bachelors Degree 10,842 28.5% 583,144 20.5% Graduate or professional degree 5,982 15.7% 354,673 12.4% Total 38,058 2,850,693 DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Graduate or professional degree Bachelors Degree 1111 Associate's degree 9.036 • Some college, no degree ` 22.8% =WMHigh school graduate(includes equivalency) Less Than High School Graduate 9 6 7.1% State of Oregon ■Tigard SOURCE: U.S.Census Bureau, 2015-2019 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates CITY OFTIGARD ( ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 23 IV. MAJOR INDUSTRIES ANALYSIS This element of the Economic Opportunities Analysis assesses the economic landscape in Washington County and the City of Tigard in major industry sectors.The objective of this process is to identify a range of industry types that provide current and potential economic opportunities over the planning period in alignment with economic development objectives. Elements of Industry Sector Analysis A range of analytical tools are used to assess the local and regional economic landscape to identify the sectors that are likely to drive growth over the planning period. Highly Represented -Current Industries LOCAL EMPLOYMENT SNAPSHOT -Location Quotient As discussed in more detail in the following section, Tigard features an estimated 45,500 jobs within its corporate boundaries as of 2021. This snapshot of current industry Gain Sharing Project Growth employment in the city are a guide to the past and present but Rate Over 77me may not represent the types of jobs and employment land uses -OR Emp.Dept. -Momentum that will best meet the community's future objectives. Rate and -Shift Share Magnitude The following table presents the major industry sectors ranked by estimated number of employees. The largest sectors are construction, retail,and professional services. FIGURE 4.01:LOCAL EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY,CITY OF TIGARD(2021) Estimated Employment by Industry(2021) Construction IIMMINIMIMIMNIMIN 7,028 Retail Trade 6,854 Management&Admin.Services aimagimmimi5,285 Prof.and Tech.Services 4,476 Professional&Technical Services 4,465 Health Care 3,482 Leisure&Hospitality 3,026 Wholesale Trade 111111111111111111. 2,243 Manufacturing r 2,153 Other Services Mon 1,573 Education NM 1,454 Information MI= 1,454 Real Estate 111111 827 Transport.,Warehouse,Utilities NM 754 Government al 441 00 000 000 ,� (0, No.of Employees Source: Johnson Economics,Oregon Employment Department,BEA CITYOFTIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 24 Figure 4.02 presents the growth in employment in Tigard by major industry sector since 2010 according to QCEW data provided by the Oregon Employment Department. This time period covers the recent economic expansion since the prior recession of 2008,and also the employment losses of the last year(2020). Since 2010,the greatest employment growth was seen in the construction,professional services,and health care industries. Many other sectors experienced falling employment over this period, led by the management and administrative services sectors. These shifts are partially due to the relocation of some large employers into and out of the city. FIGURE 4.02:EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR,TIGARD(2010-2021) QCEW Employment Employment Growth'00-'21 Major Industry Sector 2010 2021 New Employment Employment Jobs Growth Construction 3,752 7,028 3,276 119% Manufacturing 2,109 2,153 44 2% Wholesale Trade 2,795 2,243 (553) -20% Retail Trade 7,408 6,854 (553) -8% Transport.,Warehouse,Utilities 646 754 108 18% Information 1,648 1,454 (194) -12% Finance&Insurance 5,041 4,476 (565) -12% Real Estate 656 827 171 28% Professional&Technical Services 3,848 4,465 617 18% Management&Admin.Services 6,115 5,285 (830) -15% Education 1,855 1,454 (401) -23% Health Care 2,631 3,482 851 34% Leisure&Hospitality 3,421 3,026 (395) -12% Other Services 1,418 1,573 155 13% Government 392 441 49 13% TOTAL 43,735 45,517 1,781 4% Source: Oregon Employment Department In terms of total number of current jobs, the retail, finance and insurance, administrative services, and leisure and hospitality(tourism and dining)remain large employers in Tigard, despite job losses over the last decade. The success of both professional service and industrial/construction businesses in Tigard is likely due to the historical availability of land in these zones, with excellent regional transportation access. Tigard's employment areas are located along the I-5 freeway, and the confluence of highways 99W and 217. This enables employers locating in Tigard access to a regionwide labor shed including all of the Metro area including SW Washington State as well as the Salem metro area to the south. This access is also an advantage for shipping, or industries such as construction that may have job sites located across the Metro area. Tigard's southeast industrial zones have provided large sites, with quick access for employees and shipping. The Tigard Triangle area is also an extension of the Kruse Way corridor which is established as one of the top suburban professional office locations in the Metro area. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 25 The network of regional access is also highly beneficial to retailers. The Washington Square Mall,big box retailers, and even some smaller stores rely on a regional customer base preferring access and visibility from high-traffic streets. The Highway 99 corridor is also a highly successful retail environment. These are the historical development patterns that have led to the current distribution of employment and industries in the city. As discussed in the following sections of this report,the make up of new businesses in the community is likely to change due to decreasing land availability and policy choices on how to use it efficiently. CHARACTERISTICS OF LOCAL FIRMS The local employment base is largely dominated by small employers of 10 or fewer employees (75% of firms),which is a common pattern across most markets(see Figure4,03). There are two employers of 500 or more employees, and 11 with 250 to 500 employees. Some of these may have employees spread over } * multiple locations. y Relative to the national distribution,Tigard has a slightly smaller share of small firms,and slightly greater , share of firms with 10 to 100 employees. HoweverkAtee,differences are not large.` s CITY OFTIGARD i ECONOM IC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS - PAGE 26 FIGURE 4.03:DISTRIBUTION OF CURRENT FIRMS BY SIZE,TIGARD OREGON I Firms by Size(By Number of Employees) !Industry I <5 5-9 10-19 20-49 50-99 100-249 250499 >500 Total {Agriculture,forestry,fishing,and hunting 3 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 6 Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Construction 166 44 41 26 12 7 1 2 299 Food Manufacturing 13 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 23 Wood Manufacturing 12 5 5 6 2 1 0 0 31 Metals Manufacturing 32 10 6 9 4 4 0 0 65 Utilities 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 Wholesale trade 209 60 28 17 3 3 0 0 320 Retail trade 86 54 61 23 6 7 1 0 238 Retail trade 46 17 22 10 7 4 2 0 108 Transportation 30 3 5 3 1 0 0 0 42 Delivery and warehousing 9 4 1 1 1 1 0 0 17 Information 61 8 8 9 5 2 1 0 94 Finance and Insurance 182 40 29 20 7 8 2 0 288 Real Estate and Rental 100 23 12 6 2 0 0 0 143i Professional,Scientific,and Technical Services 389 89 49 40 11 1 0 0 5791 Management of Companies and Enterprises 20 10 10 7 7 1 0 0 55 Administrative and Want Management 129 28 27 22 4 6 3 0 219 Educational services 33 10 9 15 5 3 0 0 75 ,Health care and social assistance 166 70 42 33 11 2 0 0 324 'Arts,Entertainment,and Recreation 22 7 7 5 0 0 0 0 41,' [Accommodation and Food Services 64 44 50 43 7 4 0 Cl 2121 Other services 303 50 20 10 5 0 0 0 388' Government 1 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 5 Unclassified 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 TOTAL 2,113 583 437 308 102 54 11 2 3,610 NUMBER OF FIRMS BY SIZE >500 2 250-499 it it i. 100-249 54 0 a 50-99 102 W w o 20-49 308 d a E 10-19 437 0 z 5-9 583 <5 2,113 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Number of Firms DISTRIBUTION OF FIRMS BY SIZE(LOCAL AND NATIONAL) >500 0% Tigard 250-499 i 096 d National(Private Sector) c 100-249 ' 1% rS 50-99 . 3% o 20-49 IMP 996 E 10-19 1111.111111. 12% z 59 111.01111111 16% <5 1111.11111111.111111.111111111111111111111111.111M9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Number of Firms Source: Oregon Employment Department CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 27 Figure 4.04 presents the estimated number of employees in firms of the different size categories. While there are relatively few larger employers,they still represent a significant share of overall employment due to their high number of employees. FIGURE 4.04:DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYEES BY FIRM SIZE,TIGARD OREGON TOTAL NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES BY FIRM SIZE >500 1,186 250-499 3,841 U, a 100-249 8,517 .2 E 50-99 6,977 10 20-49 9,455 ss 10-19 5,966 5-9 3,844 tr. <5 3,227 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Total Number of Employees Source: Johnson Economics,Oregon Employment Department Home Occupations: As of the time of this report, Tigard had 171 home occupation businesses registered in the city. The total number of employees was 230,for an average 1.3 employees per business. However, nearly 80%of home occupation businesses report just one employee. There are a range of home business types, with the most common being some form of contractor or tradesperson who likely travels to other locations to complete projects,or someone providing personal services which might include accounting or legal services, beauty,or repair services. FIGURE 4.05:DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYEES BY FIRM SIZE,TIGARD OREGON Category No.of Home Permits No.of Employees Landscape,General,Trade Contractors: 27 16% 47 20% Food Prep.and Products: 2 1% 3 1% Misc. Durable Goods Production(Apparel,Furniture,Crafts,etc.): 13 8% 14 6% Retail(Misc.Goods,Online&Mail): 30 18% 43 19% Personal and Property Service(Beauty,Repair,Real Estate,etc.): 44 26% 58 25% Professional Services(Accounting,Health,Legal,etc.): 54 32% 60 26% Unknown: 1 1% 5 2% TOTAL: 171 230 Source: City of Tigard Roughly 18%report some sort of retail service which likely includes mostly online sales.The largest category is those who provide services. This includes many personal services such as beauty, massage, and alternative health practitioners who provide services in a client's home, also many self-occupied professionals such as accountants,lawyers and paralegals, and freelancers. CITY OF TIGARD ( ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 28 At an estimated 230 employees,these home occupations represent a very modest share of employment in Tigard,roughly 0.5%. This only includes home occupation businesses that have registered with the City and there are also likely many such businesses that are unregistered. ECONOMIC SPECIALIZATION The most common analytical tool to evaluate economic specialization is a location quotient analysis.This metric compares the concentration of employment in an industry at the local level to a larger geography. All industry categories are assumed to have a quotient of 1.0 on the national level,and a locality's quotient indicates if the local share of employment in each industry is greater or less than the share seen nationwide. For instance, a quotient of 2.0 indicates that locally, that industry represents twice the share of total employment as seen nationwide.A quotient of 0.5 indicates that the local industry has half the expected employment. Industries with a high location quotient are likely to be bringing additional economic activity and employment into the community. City of Tigard: A location quotient analysis was completed for Tigard,which evaluated the distribution of local employment relative to national averages, as well as average annual wage levels by industry locally relative to national averages (Figure 4.06). The industries that are most highly represented relative to national averages were Construction,Retail,and Finance and Real Estate. FIGURE 4.06:INDUSTRY SECTOR SPECIALIZATION,CITY OF TIGARD,20193 Rank NAI CS Sector Description Empl. Emp.L.Q. Average Wages Wage LQ- 1 236 Construction Construction of Buildings 1,589 3.0 $72,873 0.9 2 448 Retail Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 1,269 2.6 $30,978 0.4 3 238 Construction Specialty Tra de Co ntracto rs 3,745 2.4 $73,494 0.9 4 533 Real Estate Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets 20 2.4 $81,413 1.0 5 524 financial Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 1,861 2.3 $79,908 1.0 6 525 Financial Funds,Trusts,and Other Financial Vehicles 10 2.3 $90,267 1.1 7 511 Information Publishing Industries(except Internet) 571 2.3 $137,411 1.7 8 453 Retail Miscellaneous Store Retailers 640 2.2 $34,158 0.4 9 442 Retial Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores 354 2.1 $42,811 0.5 10 523 Financial Securities,Commodity Contracts,etc. 658 2.0 $114,375 1.4 11 814 Other Services Private Households 176 1.8 530,160 0.4 12 517 Information Telecommunications 474 1.8 $84,257 1.1 13 522 Financial Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 1,572 1.7 $97,091 1.2 14 611 Education Educational Services 1,560 1.6 $42,799 0.5 15 452 Retail General Merchandise Stores 1,721 1.6 $32,572 0.4 16 423 Wholesale Merchant Wholesalers,Durable Goods 1,507 1.5 5107,250 1.3 17 551 Prof.Services Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,153 1.5 $207,760 2.6 18 512 Information Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries 207 1.4 $58,393 0.7 19 425 Wholesale Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers 430 1.4 $96,931 1.2 20 541 Prof.Services Professional,Scientific,and Technical Services 4,061 1.3 $87,669 1.1 SOURCE:Bureau of Labor Services NAICS:North American Industry Classification System;visit census.gov/eos/www/naics/to learn more about the specific industry types included in each code. 3 QCEW Data,Annual Average 2019 Data CITY OF TIGARD ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 29 These are not necessarily the subsectors with the highest overall employment levels, However, they are the subsectors with the highest representation relative to national levels, which indicates that the local economy may have competitive advantages in these industries. It may also indicate that the historic land use and zoning pattern in Tigard is amenable to certain industries over others. Figures 4.07 and 4.08 (following pages) show the local subsectors graphed by L.Q.and the overall number of employees in those subsectors. CITY OFTIGARD } ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 30 FIGURE 4.07:INDUSTRY SUBSECTOR SPECIALIZATION,LOCATION QUOTIENT VS.NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES,CITY OF TIGARD,2019 5.0 [ilp Construction Q Financial Services • Manufacturing ""'"" Profession&Business Services i • Wholesale Trade Education&Health Retail Trade ' Leisure&Hospitality il' Transportation,Warehousing&Utilities(T.W.U.) Other Services 4.0 Information Construction of Buildings 3.0 a+ C tv Construction- 47 O Specialty Trades 0Clothing Retail Publishing Insurance O 0 iiii, a 3 2.0 0 o Educational Finance "'i lk Services\ O Professional& Management General Merch. Scientific Services ttio of Co.'s 1 Retail Wholesale- 1.0 0 • •4 Admin.& Durable Gaols 0 Support c Services • Ill • Ambulatory Food Service& + Health • . Drinking Places N , Services 8 0.0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Industry Size(#of Employees) Source: QCEW Data,Annual Average 2019 Data CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 31 TIGARD MADE Maintain,Advance E MerslIy EmpIoymetn FIGURE 4.08:SUBSECTORS WITH HIGHEST LOCATION QUOTIENT,CITY OF TIGARD,2019 LOCATION QUOTIENT Construction of Buildings 3.0 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 2.6 Specialty Trade Contractors 2.4 Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets(except... „ 12.4 Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 12.3 Funds,Trusts,and Other Financial Vehicles 12.3 Publishing Industries(except Internet) ! 2.3 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 2.2 Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores 2.1 Securities,Commodity Contracts,and Other Financial... J 2.0 Private Households 1.8 Telecommunications 11.8 Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 11.7 Educational Services 1.6 General Merchandise Stores 1.6 Merchant Wholesalers,Durable Goods 1.5 Management of Companies and Enterprises 11111.111.1111111111111111111111111111115 1.5 Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries ( J 1.4 Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers 1.4 y Professional,Scientific,and Technical Services 1.3 TOTAL JOBS Professional,Scientific,and Technical Services 4,061 Specialty Trade Contractors 3,745 Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 11,861 General Merchandise Stores 1,721 Construction of Buildings 1,589 Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 11,572 Educational Services 1,560 Merchant Wholesalers,Durable Goods 1,507 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores '.. 1,269 Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,153 Securities,Commodity Contracts,and Other Financial... J 658 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 640 Publishing Industries(except Internet) I 1571 Telecommunications I J 474 Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers I♦ 430 Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores ' 354 Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries -1 207 Private Households 176 Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets(except.._ 20 Funds,Trusts,and Other Financial Vehicles 10 Construction Q Financial Services Manufacturing • Profession&Business Services 4111 Wholesale Trade Education&Health Retail Trade 40 Leisure&Hospitality Transportation,Warehousing&Utilities(T.W.U.) Other Services Q Information Source: QCEW Data,Annual Average 2019 Data CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 32 s��aiw�■ TIGARD MADE Warta r,advanced DNvers.NyEmpfu,ment ECONOMIC DRIVERS The identification of the economic drivers of a local or regional economy are helpful in informing the character and nature of future employment, and by extension land demand over a planning cycle.To this end,we employ a shift-share analysis of the local economy emerging out of the current expansion cycle4. A shift-share analysis measures the local effect of economic performance within a particular industry or occupation. The process considers local economic performance in the context of national economic trends—indicating the extent to which local growth can be attributed to unique regional context or is simply growth in line with broader national trends. For example,consider that widget manufacturing is growing at a 1.5% rate locally, about the same rate as the local economy.On the surface we would consider the widget manufacturing industry to be healthy and contributing soundly to local economic expansion. However, consider also that widget manufacturing is booming across the country,growing at a robust 4% annually. In this context, local widget manufacturing is not keeping pace with the broader growth in the industry. We can generally classify industries,groups of industries,or clusters into four groups: Growing, Outperforming: Industries that are growing locally at a rate faster than the national average.These industries have characteristics locally leading them to be particularly competitive. Growing, Underperforming: Industries that are growing locally but at a slower rate than the national average. These industries generally have a sound foundation, but some local factor is limiting growth. Contracting, Outperforming: Industries that are declining locally but slower than the national average. These industries have structural issues that are impacting growth industry-wide. However, local firms are leveraging some local or regional factor that is making them more competitive than other firms on average. Contracting, Underperforming: Industries that are declining locally at a rate faster than the national average.These industries have structural issues that are impacting growth industry wide. However,some local or regional factor is making it increasingly tough on local firms. The average annual growth rate by industry from 2010 through 2019 (the most recent year available) for Tigard was compared to the national rate.The observed local change was compared to a standardized level reflecting what would be expected if the local industry grew at a rate consistent with national rates for that industry. 4 Measured from the trough of recent recession to 2019,the most recent period available for local employment data. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 33 TIGARD MADE Maintain,advance E°Most fyEnpbymern As shown in Figure 4.09&4.10,some key industries showed growth exceeding national rates.These include construction, management of companies, and other services. Other sectors also experienced growth, but less than predicted if they had grown at the national rate. FIGURE 4.09:INDUSTRY SECTOR SHIFT SHARE ANALYSIS,CITY OF TIGARD(2010-2019) Average Employment Net Change Standardized Regional Industry 2010 2019 Total AAGR Level-2019* Shift Agriculture,Forestry,Fishing and Hunting 101 253 153 10.8% 104 150 Construction 3,752 7,273 3,521 7.6% 4,827 2,446 Manufacturing 2,109 2,186 77 0.4% 2,366 (181) Wholesale Trade 2,795 2,237 (558) -2.4% 3,026 (789) Retail Trade 7,408 7,210 (1981 -0.3% 8,045 (836) Transportation,Warehousing&Utilities 646 692 46 0.8% 696 (4) Information 1,648 1,473 (174) -1.2% 1,963 (489) Finance and Insurance 5,041 4,479 (5621 -1.3% 6,435 (1,957) Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 656 857 201 3.0% 823 35 Professional,Scientific,and Technical Services 3,848 4,591 743 2.0% 5,312 (721) Management of Companies and Enterprises 384 1,304 919 14.5% 465 838 Admin.Support&Waste Management 5,731 4,261 -3.2% 6,722 2,461) Educational Services 1,855 1,651 -1.3% 2,245 (594) Health Care and Social Assistance 2,631 3,471 840 3.1% 3,379 91 Arts,Entertainment,and Recreation 230 362 132 5.2% 293 69 Accommodation and Food Services 3,191 3,536 344 1.1% 3,847 Other Services(except Public Administration) 1,418 1,887 469 3.2% 1,433 454 Public Administration 392 468 76 2.0% 372 96 TOTAL 43,836 48,190 4,354 1.1% 52,353 4,000 I Predicted 3,000 s Observed .c 1 2,000 t C 1,000 prd ili Q 0 - - Ill _.__.. ,,,,A .J1 I ____ 1116 11 1 ,_,iiOC) C o C o v p U c N 8 r y 2C 8 5 m v ,n d C O p o a tL, .g °�' m v n v w m c ¢ c c c c m v p c c _ c .o 2 o v LL E A E r m c .. A o v C < c 3 0 u a Y R - c u u ri . c i * 3 12 c 3 ._ a d c D Z 3`ro ,c. ° a, uai •n e3U W m ° 2 0. 8 c i ILD o 0 L C 0 v ro ° r w E it re Lr) o 0 0 ~ci E d 5, m 9 .. " w u 0 9 5 d m 5 A Q i a4, . UEp Q e S ry N m H C Q y 2 r . 0 *Employment level in each industry had it grown at the same rate as its counterparts at the national level over the same period. SOURCE:U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGF34 t4 TIGARD Maintain.Advance t Diversity tnpk s,n,, Figure 4.10 presents this data visually,comparing actual employment growth with the positive or negative shift based on national trends. This gives an indication of which sectors are outperforming,and which are contracting. In Tigard, some sectors have excelled as noted, while others are underperforming, or have even contracted. Finance and admin services are two sectors that have lost some major employers since 2010 and thus have fared worse than growing industries. Wholesale and retail trade, education and information have similarly contracted. FIGURE 4.10:INDUSTRY SECTOR SHIFT SHARE ANALYSIS,CITY OF TIGARD(2010—2019) 2,500 A r- , 2,000 —.__.__ _ _ ._.__ ' Contracting __I� j Outperforming I I I Growing, 1,500 �. - - -' - _I y.._ _;.. Outperforming I I i Management of i Companies and...and... . ? I 1,000 ,_ ___ __.�.___. _ I_ ..__...I._— _. .._�. toi Other Services(except Public } l 500 _.____ jIl_4 A'dministratidna..__—._ ____._j__.._.-. I___.___l-__.___.. t s I Health Care and Social N a, Assistance , 1110- O Information ..—Manufacturing i ; t9 . i ° -500 Educational Services \ i ! __ _—_.. tWholesale Tra a Accommodation I I� I' w and Food L ? i i w Services Professional,Scientific,and ; c-6 -1,000 - _. _.__.. TechnicatServices- — - I Retail'Trad� Contracting, i ; -1,500 Underperforming '....__..__-._ i -;-- i ! Growing, ;Finance anis Insurance i i I Underperforming I -2,000 — — t_.__. it _ ..- ----_.�,—._ __ _ _-- _t___ .__,_ Admin!Support&Waste I I I Managementir I -2,500 ' -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Local Job Growth(Actual) SOURCE:U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH As noted in Section III,the State of Oregon produces employment forecasts by sector by sub-regions,which groups Washington County with Multnomah and Clackamas Counties into the broader Metro area. This forecast is an indicator of how different industry sectors are expected to fare in the region in coming years, including Washington County and Tigard. It is represented here for reference. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 35 TIGARD Maintain.advanced DWets yEnoinymem FIGURE 4.11:PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR WASHINGTON,MULTNOMAH&CLACKAMAS COUNTIES PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY INDUSTRY,2019-2029 AVG.ANNUAL PROJECTED GROWTH RATE Natural resources and mining 1 600 0.6% Construction NMI 6,300 1.1% Manufacturing _5,900 0.5% Wholesale trade w 4,600 0.9% Retail trade 3,600 0.4% Transport.,warehousing,utilities 11111111111 6,900 1.6% Information III 2,000 1.2% Financial activities .1,600 0.3% Professional and business services 1111111111111111111.1111111.11111111 28,400 1 6% Education and health 24,000 1.5% Leisure and hospitality11.1111111=12,200 1.1% Other services all 3,600 0.9% Federal government 200 0.1% State government 900 1.1% Local government MI 5,600 0.6% Self-employment IN.5,900 1.0% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% Employment MGR SOURCE:State of Oregon Employment Department,Workforce and Economic Research Division The most recent forecast anticipates a gain of over 113,000 jobs from 2019 through 2029, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 1.0%during the period. All industry sectors are forecast to expand over the next decade. Those forecasted to grow at an above average rate are transportation, warehousing and information, reflecting the continuing growth of Internet business,data centers,software and remote shopping. Other strong sectors are professional services due to the continuing evolution of the economy from good production towards services,and education and health services which continue to be a growing slice of the economy. Health care is expected to continue to grow with the aging of the large Baby Boomer cohort and this trend may be sustained for 20 years or more. Sectors projected to grow near the average rate of 1% are construction, government, and tourism-related industries. Of these, construction, and professional services,and health care have seen healthy growth in Tigard. On an absolute basis,the greatest number of new jobs are forecasted in professional services; education and health services,and tourism-related industries. WORKFORCE CHARACTERISTICS OF MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTORS DIVERSITY The following figure shows diversity in major industry sectors in Oregon.5 Unfortunately, local data is not available. The data show that overall,the employed workforce in Oregon is an estimated 53% male, and 86%white. In contrast,the state population is estimated at 49%male,and 83%white. 5 U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics,Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment,2019 CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 36 ..",,,,!Att. # TIGARD MADE Maintain,Advanced aveaityEmpicymeta Women have below-average representation in fields like construction, manufacturing, information, and professional services. Women have above average representation in finance and real estate, education, health,and leisure and hospitality(dining,and tourism-related). The employed workforce identifies as 12% Latino compared to over 13%of the state population. Latinos have above average representation in agriculture,leisure and hospitality,and other services which includes many personal service businesses. Latinos have lower representation in sectors such as finance and information,relative to their share of the population. FIGURE 4.12:DIVERSITY IN EMPLOYMENT,BY INDUSTRY SECTOR,OREGON-2019 Gender Diversity Race/Ethnicity Diversity Industry Men Women White Black Asian Latino 11 Agriculture,Natural Resources 77%. 92% 21 Mining 53% 86% 23 Construction 84% 92% 2% 14% 31-33 Manufacturing 74% 3 84% 2%ay - 13% 42 Wholesale trade 58% 43% 89% 1% 10% 44-45 Retail trade 58% 43% 89% 1% 10% 48-49 Transportation,Warehousing,Utilities 71% 85% 5% 4% 10% 51 Information 62% 7 86% 0% 7% 52 Finance and Insurance 46% 53% 88% 1% 53 Real Estate and Rental 46% 53% 88% 1% 8%. 154 Professional,Scientific,and Technical Services 60% 40% 86% 2% 6% 14% 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 60% 86% 2% 6% 14% 56 Administrative and Waste Management j 60% 40% 86% 2% 6% 14% 61 Educational services 27% 73% 83% 3% 7% 10% 62 Health care and social assistance 27% 73% 83% 3% 7% 10% 71 Arts,Entertainment,and Recreation 44% 56% 84% 1% 8% 17% 72 Accommodation and Food Services 44% 56% 84% 1% 8% 17% i 81 Other services 44% 56% 82% 3% 7% 17% j 92 Government 52% 48% 90% 1% 4% h,.,; ,99 Unclassified na na na na na na TOTAL: 53% 47% 86% 2% 6% 12% SOURCE:US Bureau of Labor Statistics In Tigard, some of the sectors of greatest employment tend to have an under-representation of some groups,such as construction and professional and administrative services which have a low share of women relative to the population. These fields tend to have the expected representation of racial minorities. The finance and real estate industries tend to have good representation of women,but poor representation of Latinos. JOB SKILLS The major industry sectors discussed here cover the full range of occupations, wage levels, and fields of work,other than self-employment. Typically,any field has occupation that range from entry-level or trainee to senior-level management. When discussing the skills any industry requires, there are those that are particular to an industry or field,and those that are transferable across many or all industries. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 37 TIGARD MADE Maintain,Adwnce&Diversify Employment Hard Skills vs. Soft Skills: Hard skills are those capabilities that can typically be defined and measured. These include knowledge-based skills that require specific education or on-the-job training to understand at least the basics of the field or business or run specific processes or machinery. These are capabilities that a newly recruited worker would not be expected to bring simply by being a bright, motivated person with the requisite"soft"skills. Depending on the occupational field, hard skills may come from prior experience, on-the-job training, technical school, or a college degree. These often require a commitment from a worker to pursue a particular field and invest time, energy, and perhaps money in to attaining these hard skills in order to progress. Hard skills are usually very particular to a specific industry. For instance,an accountant typically must have some accounting education, likely at the post-high school level. A heavy fork-lift driver must have specific training to do her job. Soft skills are often more difficult to define and measure. These are the interpersonal and professional skills that allow an employee to function well in a workplace,collaborate with coworkers,and adapt to company culture. These skills can be hard to train, but many employers value them highly,and developing soft skills can be more important to long term career success than having the best hard skills. Soft skills are often thought of as those that an employee brings with them,or perhaps learns after time in a professional environment. However, employees can be trained in soft skills, such as written and verbal communication, organization and time management, problem solving, giving and receiving feedback and others. The following is a summary of the some of the key categories of skills sought in different employment environments. Many skills, such as good communication, trainability, and attention to detail are valued across workplaces. The skills discussed below are generally soft skills,as each occupation has its particular hard skills and certification requirements. Skills for Professional and White-Collar Environments: Aside from the specific knowledge base required in specific fields (i.e., a certification for an electrician, legal degree for an attorney, etc.) office-based employers are generally looking for a set of soft skills in their employees that help the office function smoothly and meet the needs of coworkers, supervisors, and clients. Many office environments feature generalized administrative jobs that do not necessarily require a specialized education. Some of the key skills that office-based employers seek are: 1. Basic computer literacy skills 2. Organizational skills 3. Strategic planning and scheduling skills 4. Time-management skills S. Verbal and written communication skills 6. Professionalism 7. Critical thinking skills 8. Quick-learning skills 9. Attention to Detail CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 38 TIGARD MADE MaintaIn.Adveece d O4wrsIfyEnpbymem These skills help employees complete assigned tasks while coordinating with s colleagues in a professional and collegial manner. Through the lens of workforce development,accepting a job in a professional office environment can offer a transition from blue collar or service industry employment into a white-collar environment,and perhaps a steppingstone into a new professional field. It should be noted that many jobs in manufacturing, construction trades and other blue-collar fields may actually offer better wage and benefits than administrative office employment. Skills for Industrial and Manufacturing Environments: There is a wide variety of jobs that take place in an industrial environment. Manufacturing/production is one important category of industrial employment, but warehousing, raw materials processing, equipment yards, repair facilities, and many other activities take place in an industrial environment. Some of the key skills that industrial employers seek are: 1. Attention to Detail 2. Critical Thinking 3. Communication 4. Computer-Aided Technology 5. Reliability 6. Trainability Industrial employers may also seek some of the following technical skills,or the ability to be trained in: 7. Lean Manufacturing 8. Fabrication 9. Welding 10. Machining 11. Machine Maintenance and Repair 12. Machinery and Vehicle Operation Jobs in industry often offer good wages to workers at a range of education levels and backgrounds. Technical training through educational programs or on-the-job allows industrial workers to build valuable capabilities in operating equipment and running processes. It is often time-consuming and expensive for employers to replicate these skills and experience, making dependable long-term workers valuable to industrial employers. Skills for Retail and Customer-Service Environments: Employers in the retail,hospitality,personal services, and other customer-facing environments seek a specific set of skills from employees who often serve as the public face of the business and main contact with customers. Not surprisingly,interpersonal skills are highly valued as well as the ability to understand the business and even run a store at times without supervision. Skills important for customer-service employees are: 1. Attention to Detail 2. Understanding of the Business 3. Communication 4. Customer Service 5. Interpersonal Skills 6. Basic Computer Skills 7. Numeracy CITY OF TIGARD( ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS mm PAGE 39 TIGARD MADE Wiliam,Advance ersllyEmploymem 8. Sales 9. Product and/or Service Knowledge AVERAGE WAGES BY INDUSTRY The major industry sectors have differing average wage levels. Figure 4.13 presents the average wage levels in Tigard(2019)by sector. The best paying sectors on average are information,wholesale business,finance, construction trades,and professional services. Lower paying sectors are retail,food service,entertainment, and accommodations. FIGURE 4.13:AVERAGE WAGE LEVEL PER INDUSTRY SECTOR,CITY OF TIGARD Average Annual Wage Level Agriculture, Natural Resources Mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation,Warehousing,Utilities Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental Professional,Scientific,and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Waste Management Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts,Entertainment,and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other services Government Unclassified $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 SOURCE:Oregon Employment Department Figure 4.14 presents the average wage levels in Tigard based on 2019 QCEW data,compared average wages in the Portland Metro area (Oregon side) and the state. Tigard generally offers wages within 10%of the Portland Metro average in most sectors. Exceptions are administrative services and real estate where local wages are well higher than the Metro average. In some sectors,most notably manufacturing and management of companies,average local wages are well below the Metro average. This is because some of Oregon's largest, most profitable, and well-paying companies are located elsewhere in the Metro area and pull up the regional average. CITY OF TIGARD ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 40 TIGARD MADE Mantain,A0r&nce&MersllyPriploymnt The high-tech companies in the Hillsboro area pay high wages for skilled manufacturing that exceed wages for more typical kinds of manufacturing. However, manufacturing wages in Tigard also trail the statewide average. Tigard has nearly 120 manufacturing firms representing a wide variety of company size and wage levels. Local firms feature annual average wages ranging from a few thousand dollars for individual proprietors, to an average of$175,000/year. While Tigard has well-paying high-skilled manufacturing, it may be that the area simply has a greater share of lower-skilled, lower paying manufacturing employment than elsewhere in the Metro area. FIGURE 4.14:COMPARISON OF AVERAGE WAGE LEVEL PER INDUSTRY SECTOR CITY OF TIGARD,PORTLAND METRO,OREGON NAICS Industry 2019 Tigard/ Tigard Pdx Metro Oregon Metro 11 Agriculture,Natural Resources $35,500 $38,700 $36,700 92% 21 Mining na $69,000 $61,900 na 23 Construction $78,200 $70,600 $63,100 111% 31-33 Manufacturing $57,400 $85,400 $71,400 67% 42 Wholesale trade $91,400 $81,500 $75,600 112% 44-45 Retail trade $35,100 $35,000 $32,600 100% 48-49 Transportation,Warehousing,Utilities $49,300 $53,700 $53,300 92% 51 Information $92,300 $98,100 $89,600 94% 52 Finance and Insurance $87,700 $95,400 $85,700 92% 53 Real Estate and Rental I $65,000 $55,900 $49,000 116% 54 Professional,Scientific,and Technical Services $76,000 $91,100 $82,900 83% 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises $62,800 $136,400 $123,700 46% 56 Administrative and Waste Management $51,100 $42,900 $39,800 119% 61 Educational services $46,000 $41,700 $39,800 110% 62 Health care and social assistance $45,600 $56,000 $53,300 81% 71 Arts,Entertainment,and Recreation $26,300 $37,700 $30,700 70% 72 Accommodation and Food Services $24,400 $24,900 $22,800 j 98% 81 Other services $42,100 $41,000 $35,500 103% 92 Government $72,300 $67,600 $61,300 107% 99 Unclassified $59,600 $79,000 $70,400 75% l""""""".-""-- ---- - _ = - - Average all Sectors: $59,100 $63,200 $55,000 94% SOURCE:Oregon Employment Department TIGARD INDUSTRIES COMPARISON For reference, the table presented on the following page provides a comparison of the major industry sectors in Tigard based on the metrics discussed above. For each industry, the metrics are judged to be broadly Positive(green), Negative(red),or neutral, These metrics represent the current and long-term industry trends in Tigard,but do not necessarily reflect the future prospects of these industries, in particular given the specific limitations on remaining employment land discussed in later sections of this report. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 41 TIGARD MADE IAanlain.Advance A DiversifyEinpb/ment FIGURE 4.12:SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE METRICS OF MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTORS,CITY OF TIGARD Share of Location 2019 Growth Metro Proj. Projected Industry Sample Firm Types Employment Quotient Avg.Wage Since 2010 Growth Rate New Empt. (Annual) Growth(2041) 23 Construction Building,Infrastructure, 12.4% 2.1 $78,245 94% 1.1% Land,Contractors, HIGH Trades 31-33 Manufacturing Food Processing,Wood 5.0% IIIIIII $57,378 4% ME 247 Products,Metal Fab., MED. Machinery,Electronics 42 Wholesale trade Wholesalers of 5.1% 1.1 $91,448 0.9% 450 Auto,Durable Goods, MED. Food,Retail goods 44-45 Retail trade All retail categories 15.8% 1.3 ® MI 537 Autos,Durable,Groceries, HIGH Electronics,etc. 48-49 Transportation, Air,Rail,Water Transport, $49,301 7% 280 Warehousing,Utilities Freight Storage&Movement, Energy Piping&Transmission 51 Information Paper&Software Publishers, 3.2% IIIII lial 111. 1.2% 401 Movie and Sound Production, MED. Telecommunications 52 Finance and Insurance Banks,Lenders,Insurance, 19.5% al 11111 4,149 91 Investment Services,Pensions, Imo. al Securities Brokers 53 Real Estate and Rental Property Management,Real 1.0 $64,961 31% 0.7% 122 Estate Lease and Sale,Realtors, Auto and Equip.Rental 54-56 Professional,Scientific, Legal,Accounting,Technical, IIIIII MI $63,337 2% IIII 111 and Technical Services Scientific,Admin.Services, R&D,Advertising,Security 61 Educational services Elementary,Secondary,College, 3,6% 111. $46,606 11111 1.0% 330 Trade and Specialty Schools MED. 62 Health care and social Medical and Dental,Hospitals 7.6411 $45,619 32% 111111 111111 assistance Clinics,Laboratories,Home Care 14164/ Nursing Homes,Family Services, Food and Housing Services 71 Arts,Entertainment,and Performing Arts,Theaters, 11111 MI 12% 99 Recreation Sports,Venues,Artists,Promotion, Performers,Museums,Recreation 72 Accommodation and Hotels,Casinos,Campgrounds, 11111 11111 11% Ll% M Food Services Restaurants,Bars,Caterers, Cafeterias,Food Carts 81 Other services Repair and Maintenance,Beauty 3.6% 1.0 $42,136 31% 0.9x 292 Services,Personal Services, MED. Civic,Religious,Social Orgs. 92 Government Local,State,Federal,Military, na $72,301 19% 0.6% 111111 Executive Offices,Legislatures, TOTAL/AVERAGE: $59,086 8% 1.0% 10,250 CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 42 �t+ TIGARD MADE Maintain,*trance&DivendyEmpioymeni V. EMPLOYMENT LAND USE & DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AVERAGE EMPLOYMENT DENSITY Average employment density differs by land use and building type. In general, office space houses more employees per square foot, while industrial and warehousing house fewer employees per square foot on average. The employee/square foot averages used in this analysis were derived from Urban Land Institute data and have been periodically compared to recent trends in space usage. These averages are by the building typology, rather than the industry sector. (Sector employment is converted to building type in the next section.) FIGURE 5.01:ESTIMATED AVERAGE EMPLOYMENT DENSITY BY BUILDING TYPOLOGY Average Floor Area Vacancy Avg. Sq.Ft./Empl. Ratio Assumption Jobs/Acre Office 350 0.35 10% 39.2 j Institutional 350 0.35 0% 43.6 Retail 500 0.25 10% 19.6 Flex/B.P 990 0.3 10% 11.9 Gen. Ind. 600 0.3 5% 20.7 Warehouse 1,000 0.35 5% 14.5 Data Center 8,000 0.35 5% 1.8 Total 1,680 0.32 6.4% 21.6 SOURCE:Johnson Economics,Urban Land Institute Implications for Employment Land Use Through the lens of efficient use of remaining employment lands in Tigard,traditional office uses are likely to accommodate the most employment per buildable acre,while retail and industrial less so. There is also variance among industrial users. Manufacturers tend to have greater average job density, while warehousing provides low density. Data centers, which have become a more common use in the region since 2010 offer very high taxable value, but low employment density. LAND USE AND BUILDING EFFICIENCY Aside from encouraging employment land uses that tend to have greater employment density, more efficient use of sites can increase the yield of real estate and jobs on available employment land. This can entail employers using smaller sites than an equivalent business might have used in the past when land was more plentiful and less expensive. It an also include reducing the site space used for landscaping, buffers, and parking to allow more usable built space. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 43 TIGARD MADE Maintzh,Mance S Diversify EmpSaymenS Economics of New Development One challenge in the suburban environment where land prices are lower is that the developers themselves may not feel financial pressure to maximize use of sites. The private real estate market tends to provide greater density in response to higher property values. This section provides a general discussion of factors which impact the density of development or redevelopment in a neighborhood. Cost of Construction:Cost to develop is a key determinant of final development forms. As a general rule, the higher-density development forms have a higher cost per square foot to construct. This is due to shifts in materials from wood and concrete to steel,the need for structured parking,and the need for more robust systems such as elevators,firewalls,and sprinklers. Higher costs can be offset by a greater achievable density of leasable space, which has value when the achievable price is higher than the cost of construction excluding land. However,when achievable pricing is below construction costs, there is no marginal value associated with the increase in density and development forms; lower density building forms remain the best economic use for the land in terms of rate of return. Risk:At the most basic level the pace of development will be driven by perceived demand for real estate in a market and the achievable pricing. If demand and pricing are known to be strong(as is generally the case in Tigard),the perceived risk is reduced for developers, property owners,lenders and investors. There are many areas of risk in real estate development including the following: • Scale and Time—Most commercial development projects require a significant amount of capital to realize, often in the millions of dollars, and may take multiple years to complete, requiring upfront investment in a project that is unprofitable until completion, and entails carrying costs during the process. • Entitlement — Securing entitlements for development can be an uncertain and time-consuming portion of the development process. • Financing—Financial commitments can be fluid during the development process,with lenders and/or equity partners backing out of deals or renegotiating terms mid-development. These players can also limit flexibility. • Construction—There are many risk factors associated with construction. The cost of materials and labor can fluctuate significantly, timing delays can impact contractor availability windows, unforeseen problems may emerge during site-work, etc. • Market—Actual achievable rent levels andjor sales prices may be significantly different than assumed at the time development was initiated. in addition, capitalization rates (a measure of value set by the market)can shift significantly, which has a pronounced impact on income properties. Economics of Redevelopment In addition to being subject to the considerations discussed above for new development, redevelopment projects have additional factors impacting feasibility. Highest and Best Use.There are many considerations on whether a property or area is providing its"best use" in a general sense,including planning goals,social goals,equity,neighborhood fabric,etc. But for the CITY OE TIGARD( ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 44 purposes of this discussion, a developer considering redevelopment of a property will usually seek to determine the"highest and best use"in the economic sense. This term has a particular meaning in real estate development, which is the use that provides the best economic return,which leads to the highest value for the underlying land. The value of the underlying land is referred to as the"residual land value". For instance,under an obsolete use,a parcel may have a value of X. However,for a new use with a higher achievable rent and perhaps increased density,the developer may be willing to pay 2X for the parcel (i.e. for the buildable land). Under the new,more productive use,the land itself is literally worth more than the existing property(land and building)is worth under its current use. Challenges to Redevelopment: Often a property or area may not be attracting redevelopment activity despite appearing to be a good candidate for new uses. What is often happening in these cases is that the existing property,while it may seem obsolete or in poor condition,still retains enough total value under its existing use(land and building)that it would cost too much to purchase as a building site for a new use. While the new use would be able to achieve higher rents and be more economically productive, it is not enough of an improvement to overcome the remaining value in the existing use. Another factor may be costs in addition to land purchase, which may mean site clean-up costs, liens, entitlement issues. These costs should be,but are not always,reflected in the purchase price as a discount. The high cost and risk of preparing the site for redevelopment are why defunct gas station,dry cleaners and other potentially contaminated sites often sit vacant for very long periods. For these reasons, areas which seem like good candidates for redevelopment can persist for some time if the underlying land has not become valuable enough to justify new uses. Implications for Employment Land Use There are usually market forces to explain why land is developing in the manner that it is. Where new development seem to be utilizing land less efficiently and producing buildings at lower densities,it is most often an indication that market rents and land values need more time to develop to where the market dictates greater efficiency. In the Metro area, given land constraints within the UGB and the controls on rapid growth at the urban fringes, many suburban regional and town centers are seeing this type of market pressure that is shifting achievable densities. Tigard's central city and Triangle areas are both showing signs that increased densities are becoming more feasible. In general, office development will be capable of achieving greater future densities than industrial lands. Tigard's business parks near the freeway offer examples of large four and five stories professional office buildings. Commercial office and retail are also better suited for vertical mixed-use development as they can compliment each other,as well as housing. CITY OF TIGARD ( EC CP. -:lc OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 45 TIGARD MADE MahIa[n,Advance b ItmenttiEmp$yment Industrial users are less amenable to greatly increasing density. These sectors rarely utilize multi-story buildings, other than for ancillary office functions. They also often req uire large outdoor yard and storage space, and maneuvering space for trucks and equipment. Industrial is generally unsuited for mixed use development because of the negative externalities of noise,traffic,dust and fumes that might be associated with industrial businesses. ADAPTIVE REUSE Adaptive reuse refers to the rethinking of obsolete, underused or vacant properties for a new use. The need for this creative reuse is expected to be a growing trend due to changing commercial real estate market conditions such as closure of big box retail chains, challenges to indoor malls, and now the Covid- 19 induced blow to existing retailers and office buildings. What is Adaptive Reuse? The CCIM Institute,a commercial real estate industry group,proposed the following definition for adaptive reuse projects: 1. Existing structure: While adaptive reuse projects may involve some level of new construction or an expansion/addition of space,they always start with an existing structure. 2. Functional and/or economic obsolescence:All adaptive reuse projects commence with a property in a state of disrepair, high rate of vacancy, or with highest and best use in transition. In essence,the old use is no longer productive or economically viable, and the tenants have left. 3. Change of use: The project/property involves a repurposing of a prior structure and use, not a mere re-tenanting with tenant improvements. 4. Economic viability: Not only does the reuse need to be physically possible and legally permissible; it also has to be economically viable. Local government incentives are sometimes necessary to make a project economically viable due to the cost of assemblage,higher repurposing costs with a greater cost-overrun risk than new construction, and speculative lease-up risks. In addition to market forces impacting traditional retail and office buildings, reuse may also be driven by rising cost and scarcity of land making reuse of existing properties more viable. Public efforts to reuse historic or notable buildings while preserving their character are also a driver of reuse projects that often involve a public/private partnership. Examples of Adaptive Reuse of Commercial Real Estate Adaptive reuse is highly specific to the unique qualities of the building and location, but a few examples are: • Reuse of a historic building(i.e.,train station)for new hotel,office,or housing. CITY or TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 46 TIGARD Mahuan,Advance 6 bhrer,iyEmpkymenl • Conversion of a large-format retailer into multiple smaller retail spaces, an open multi-tenant marketplace, entertainment (indoor play structure, laser tag, etc.), gym, or warehouse/distribution space. • Conversion of office space into a school or municipal space. Conversion of office into multifamily housing(this is often proposed but expensive due to the differences in floor plate layout between office and residential buildings.) • Hotels can often make creative reuse of older and historic buildings in central locations,with the unusual building becoming a branding point for the business. • Reuse of indoor shopping malls for hospital,university or other institutional space. Implications for Employment Land Use Each reuse development project is unique and difficult to predict. The main way that land use planners can facilitate reuse is by instituting flexible zoning that allows for a mix of uses so that properties can respond to changing market forces. The public can play a role in identifying large or key opportunities for reuse and perhaps participating in a public/private partnership to make them feasible. Tools like TIF can provide resources to participate in these projects. As a community with limited employment land, reuse and redevelopment may become increasingly common in the Tigard's existing employment zones. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT The commercial and industrial real estate industry have made significant bounds in adopting sustainable development measures over the last two decades. The U.S. Green Building Council introduced the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED)designation in 1998,and the program introduced a clear route and set of best practices for developers to build more sustainable buildings. Now on version 4.1,LEED offers guidance and certification on building exteriors and interiors,operations and maintenance, transportation linkages,and other aspects of development. Commercial and industrial developers have adopted green building features both to meet the company environmental goals of their management,employees and shareholders, but also because there is a strong economic case to be made that these spaces are more valuable and perform better over time. Sustainable Building Features The list of potential sustainable features is long and can include anything that improves energy and water use, use of more sustainable and recycled materials, health improvements for tenants, low impact landscaping, multi-modal transportation linkages and more. Commercial and industrial buildings can be more challenging for implementation due to features such as high ceilings and large rooms, extensive window cladding, and heating and cooling needs of specialized equipment. While the list of eligible LEED features is extensive, a few examples are: • Use of improved glass and daylighting to improve ambient light and reduce need for artificial light. • Use of efficient LED lighting. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 47 TIGARD MADE Maintain,Advance&Diversity E^iploynw!t • Solar panels,and/or using renewable energy programs from local utilities. • Recycled materials throughout construction,including in interior finishes such as carpet. • Non-chemical-emitting materials,paints and finishes. • Modern,energy-efficient mechanical systems. • Water retaining landscaping such as bioswales and French drains. • Water-efficient indoor plantings for air quality. • Reflective,living,or cooling roof features. • Reduction of waste and pollution from building and operations. It is not necessary to obtain LEED certification to undertake green building or develop a sustainable property. Certification can add time and cost to a project, and many sustainable features are becoming industry standards as the benefits are understood and costs come down. LEED certification remains a valuable shorthand to indicate to tenants and investors that a property is sustainable. In addition, it should be noted that there are four levels of certification: certified,silver,gold&platinum. The Business Case for Sustainable Development There is a strong business case for sustainable building features that have helped improve adoption. These features are ultimately attractive to business tenants, investors, and long-term owners and operators of employment space as evidenced that LEED certification is shown to increase the value of these properties. • For property owners and investors,sustainable facilities are more attractive to prospective tenants who often pay a rent premium for having these features in their space. Happy tenants remain longer and reduce costs associated with vacancy and re-tenanting. Long-term operating costs are lower as energy, water,and waste costs are reduced. Low-maintenance features such as passive heating and cooling, reduced artificial lighting, self-sustaining landscaping, help reduce maintenance costs. Sustainable properties, particularly those with LEED certification will have higher resale values and are designed to last longer with less need for repair and renovation. • For tenants, a green workplace conforms to the environmental values of the company and individual employees while offering other advantages. The business'commitment to sustainability can help attract and keep talented employees and promote health and productivity in the workplace. Operating costs that are passed to the tenant are reduced. A green stance also often agrees with the branding of modern companies, and investors and stakeholders in the business increasingly expect a commitment to sustainability as well. Implications for Employment Land Use From a planning perspective,a city might choose to either require or incentivize sustainable features in new development. Sustainable features are often (but not always) more costly substitutes for older materials and techniques, so requiring them through zoning or building codes can run in to challenges from the building community and also have the perverse effect of disincentivizing new development by making it more expensive. Still, approaches such as requiring stormwater retention, encouraging density, public space,bike facilities,and reducing parking minimums are examples of statutory approaches to encouraging sustainability. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 48 tar «:1' " T(GARD'' """ Mainta;n,Advance d Dr*rslty Employmern Public incentives for sustainable development are those that either reduce costs or improve profitability for the developer. These are commonly incentives that reduce property taxes for some period or give a "bonus"to the developer in the form of height,density, reduced parking that will increase the profitability of the building. These bonus incentives work best in parts of the city where market forces are already leading to more dense use of land. This can be difficult in some suburban cities where dense development, vertical and mixed uses are not yet occurring. Without a market pressure to build denser land uses,bonus height and density are less attractive incentives. EQUITABLE DEVELOPMENT The potential impacts of land use and real estate development on equity is a growing concern in planning, transportation, and redevelopment projects. Major gentrification or redevelopment of neighborhoods have the potential to displace local households and businesses by directly disrupting their property or increasing land values and rents in an area making it difficult for current residents to remain. Marginalized people may include low-income renters, racial or ethnic minorities, those with disabilities, those with cultural or language barriers,small business owners,neighborhoods with traditionally low property values. The Southwest Corridor Plan recently completed by Metro and partner communities included an Equitable Development Strategy that considered the impacts of a new light rail line between central Portland and cities to the south, including Tigard. While this study was an early step in understanding this problem, it involved many stakeholders and provides some guidance on equitable development in the area. What is Equitable Development? The Southwest Equitable Development Strategy(SWEDS) defined equitable development as"an approach for meeting the needs of underserved communities through policies and programs that reduce disparities while fostering places that are healthy and vibrant."The approach seeks to understand the perspectives of those most directly impacted by potential public investments, and to take those into account when making transportation and land use decisions. This means engaging the public and taking their experiences into account when making decisions about a proposed project, about new housing to support the growing population,and about equitable economic development. Equitable development attempts to foresee and ameliorate such potential issues as: • Availability of affordable housing • Residential and business displacement/gentrification • Equitable economic opportunity and wealth creation • Multi-modal transportation accessibility • Community health and safety • Cultural and language barriers among marginalized residents and business owners How to Help Promote Equitable Development Metro partnered with community organizations, especially those created by and serving historically marginalized communities,in creating specific recommendations to help promote equitable development, which include: CITY OFTIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 49 TIGARD MADE Mauitan.,Advanced DimrsifyEmpkymem • Business education and job training • Development of affordable housing • Providing opportunities for affordable homeownership • Strengthening community capacity • Creating innovative pilot programs to directly address these issues Pilot grants from Metro to address some of these issues included business education and outreach to small businesses (Mercy Corps NW), specialized career training to historically marginalized individuals working lower-wage jobs at OHSU to increase economic opportunity (Immigrant and Refugee Community Organization),and multiple affordable housing projects for renters and owners. Gentrification and Displacement Displacement of residents and businesses can be one symptom of the process of gentrification. "Gentrification" is a charged term, which can have different definitions depending on the context. The process has multifaceted socio-economic drivers and impacts. For the sake of this discussion,the most important definition is that: Gentrification is a process which brings new households and businesses with greater financial resources into areas which have historically been occupied by households and businesses with fewer financial resources. The natural economic outcome of this process is the displacement of some of the households and businesses with fewer resources over time. However,typically displacement is not distributed evenly: • First and foremost, displacement is a much greater risk for renters than owners. By definition, renters are more susceptible to the whims of outside forces on their housing and business location, including from landlords and general market forces. While a renter may lock in stability with a 6 or 12 month lease, there is considerable uncertainly at the end of that period, particularly in a gentrifying market. • Property owners have often locked in their costs for many decades through a mortgage, while Oregon's property tax laws ensure that tax bills won't climb too quickly even if the neighborhood is greatly appreciating in value. If a neighborhood has been low cost for some time, many long- time owners have paid off their mortgage, or have small monthly payments based on a low purchase price. • Because of this dynamic,gentrification can be felt very differently by renters vs. property owners. Many owners have the ability to stay in the neighborhood even as prices rise around them. They also have the choice to sell their property and capitalize on the rising value. They may consider the increasing prices to be a positive trend. • Renting housing is correlated with lower income levels, and lower income levels are correlated with a range of demographic categories including young people, single parents, disabled, racial and ethnic minorities, and immigrants. Therefore these groups may be disproportionately impacted by displacement depending on the profile of the neighborhood. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 50 TIGARD MADE ka�rWm.advance g DrvenO y Empwy+rem. • Business displacement tends to lag residential gentrification, often by many years. In the early years of gentrification, there is often long-neglected and vacant commercial space in the neighborhood which can be used for new and pioneering businesses. Being underused, this type of space often represents a lower rent option compared to established neighborhoods. The pioneering small businesses taking a chance on the neighborhoods in the early years may well suffer from rising rents in later years. Despite this, these pioneering businesses may actually be viewed as part of the problem, bringing change and attracting newcomers to the area. • Once residential gentrification progresses and the cache of the neighborhood and increased spending power of new residents is generally apparent,then the existing commercial space will be rehabbed and leased and business lease rates will begin to climb. When achievable lease rates get high enough, redevelopment of existing properties into new space becomes more feasible. • As with residents,businesses that own their property will be in a much more stable situation than businesses that lease. Small and emerging businesses are more likely to lease than established businesses. However,commercial property owners are more susceptible to rising property tax rates than homeowners. It is important to remember that gentrification and displacement are the cumulative result of thousands of choices being made by individuals in the marketplace. This is why gentrification can seem so difficult for communities to address, and why individuals can feel powerless to change the trend even as they buy or sell a home in the neighborhood for a new higher price. Implications for Employment Land Use Many aspects of equitable development cannot be addressed directly through land use initiatives but are better suited to be addressed through related measures such as economic development, TIF districts, affordable housing programs, and community outreach. The main lever that land use planning has is to consider in advance the potential impacts that large planning initiatives might have on established lower- income or lower-property-value neighborhoods where marginalized groups might live or operate businesses. Planning should include these groups directly during the process. In terms of spatial land use planning, an approach that prioritizes equitable multi-modal transportation access to neighborhoods for commuters and daily needs is important. The Metro 2040 Growth Concept that concentrates additional growth in town centers and transportation corridors aids with this, but paradoxically can lead to gentrification if centers of concentrated density successfully develop. As noted, renters are more vulnerable to displacement than property owners. Owners,though they may be unhappy with neighborhood changes,are at least able to participate in gentrification through increasing property values. Or if a property is taken for a project,such as a new transportation right-of-way,the owner is at least compensated. Renters do not benefit from disruption in this way. Rising property values in an area tend to lead to increased rents and selling or redevelopment of rental properties. When a naturally occurring affordable housing(NOAH) property is condemned for a public project, it often is not replaced with similarly low-rent units,if at all. For land use planners,permissive residential zoning that allows for a range of housing types,including multi- family,smaller and attached housing across the city can help alleviate the limited supply. Recent efforts on CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PACE 51 #-- rrt TIGARD MADE Maknzin,Advance 8 Dwrsify impk5.0; the state and local level to allow"middle housing"types in traditional single-family zones are an effort in this direction. One of the most important approaches to consider for protecting lower-cost neighborhoods that serve marginalized groups is a counterintuitive one: tread lightly. This can be difficult as communities often want to assist these populations and physically improve and beautify neighborhoods seen as neglected. However, successful efforts at renewal can lead to rising property values and exacerbate inequality and displacement. The stock of naturally occurring affordable housing and commercial real estate is far larger than the stock of subsidized affordable spaces. Reductions in the lower cost space that the market provides is difficult and expensive for non-profit agencies or the public to replace with formally subsidized space. The aging apartment complex or mobile home park can be an important source of low-income housing rather than a problem to"fix". The small storefront on the "bad" street can be a low-rent solution for an emerging business owner. Therefore, planning projects should carefully weigh how they will improve the lives of those living and working in an area, without incentivizing gentrification pressures. This may mean a more limited scope of improvements rather than an expansive scope. When displacement is projected, alternative housing or commercial real estate should be identified prior the changes whenever possible. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 52 TIGARD MADE Ma;ntax,Advance a DrversrryEnvSayment VI. FORECAST OF EMPLOYMENT AND LAND NEED CITY OF TIGARD EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS Goal 9 requires that jurisdictions plan for a 20-year supply of commercial and industrial capacity. Because employment capacity is the physical space necessary to accommodate new workers in the production of goods and services, employment need forecasts typically begin with a forecast of employment growth in the community. The previous analysis of economic trends and major industries set the context for these estimates. This analysis translates those trends into estimates of employment growth by broad industry. Forecasts are produced at the sector or subsector level (depending on available information), and subsequently aggregated to two-digit NAICS sectors. Estimates in this analysis are intended for long-range land planning purposes and are not designed to predict or respond to shorter-term business cycle fluctuations. The projections in this analysis are built on an estimate of employment in 2021, the commencement year for the planning period. Employment growth will come as the result of net-expansion of businesses in the community, new business formation, or the relocation or recruitment of new firms.As explained in more detail below, two forecast scenarios are presented, one reflecting a slower baseline growth rate, and one reflecting a higher growth rate in keeping with the most recent Urban Growth Report adopted by Metro. The significant difference between these two growth rates results in a large difference in findings of job growth and land needs from the two forecasts as presented below. Long-range forecasts typically rely on a macroeconomic context for growth.The forecast does not consider the impact of a significant but unpredictable exogenous shift in employment such as recruitment of a major employer. OVERVIEW OF EMPLOYMENT FORECAST METHODOLOGY Our methodology starts with employment forecasts by major commercial and industrial sector. Forecasted employment is allocated to building type,and a space demand is a function of the assumed square footage per employee ratio multiplied by projected change.The need for space is then converted into land and site needs based on assumed development densities using floor area ratios(FARs). FIGURE 6.01:EMPLOYMENT PROJECTION TO LAND NEED FORECAST PROCESS g tit Ache t * EMPLOYMENT SPACE NEEDS REAL ESTATE l'-'6.LAND/SITE FORECAST •SF per Employee PRODUCTS NEEDS •By Sector •Magnitude and •Office •Aggregate Need •Baseline and Character of Need •Industrial •Site Requirements Adjusted •Commercial •Hybrid Products CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 53 A aa, . TIGARD MADE 9,,tain.Advance!,tliwrsNgEmpb,mem The first analytical step of the analysis is to update covered employment to the 2021 base year. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data was used to determine the City of Tigard's covered employment by industry through 2019. To update these estimates, we use observed industry specific growth rates for Washington County between 2019 and 2021.This included a year of growth from 2019 to 2020,and a year of significant contraction from 2020 to 2021 due to the pandemic. The second step in the analysis is to convert "covered"6 employment to "total" employment. Covered employment only accounts for a share of overall employment in the economy. Specifically, it does not consider sole proprietors or commissioned workers. Covered employment was converted to total employment based on observed ratios at the national level derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis from 2010 through 2018. The differential is the most significant in construction, professional, and administrative services.The adjusted 2021 total employment base for the City of Tigard is 45,500 jobs. FIGURE 6.02:UPDATE TO 2021 BASELINE AND CONVERSION OF COVERED TO TOTAL EMPLOYMENT QCEW Employment 2019 '19-'21 2021 Total Emp. 2021 ;Major Industry Sector Employment County o' Estimate Conversion2 Estimate Construction 5,344 -1.7% 5,164 73% 7,028 Manufacturing 2,133 -0.8% 2,101 98% 2,153 Wholesale Trade 2,177 0.1% 2,182 97% 2,243 Retail Trade 6,808 -2.5% 6,472 I 94% 6,854 Transport.,Warehouse,Utilities 632 4.4% 689 91% 754 Information 1,395 -0.7% 1,377 95% 1,454 Finance&Insurance 4,101 0.0% 4,099 92% 4,476 Real Estate 785 -1.8% 757 92% 827 Professional&Technical Services 4,061 -1.4% 3,950 88% 4,465 Management&Admin.Services 4,922 -2.5% 4,675 88% 5,285 Education 1,560 -6.1% 1,374 95% 1,454 Health Care 3,280 0.2% 3,290 95% 3,482 Leisure&Hospitality 3,679 -11.9% 2,856 94% 3,026 Other Services 1,561 -8.7% 1,301 83% 1,573 Government 468 -2.9% 441 100% 441 TOTAL 42,906 -2.6% 40,730 89% 45,517 1 Forecasted MGR from 2019-2029 for the Portland Tri-County submarket.Oregon Employment Department 2 Bureau of Economic Analysis.Calculated as an eight-year average between 2010 and 2018 SCENARIO 1:SAFE HARBOR FORECAST The Goal 9 statute does not have a required method for employment forecasting. However,OAR 660-024- 0040(9)(a) outlines several safe harbor methods, which are intended to provide jurisdictions a methodological approach that will not be challenged.The most applicable for the City of Tigard is 660-024- 0040(9)(a)(A), which recommends reliance on the most recent regional forecast published by the Oregon Employment Department. This method applies industry specific growth rates for the Tri-County Metro 6 The Department of Labor's Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages(QCEW)tracks employment data through state employment departments. Employment in the QCEW survey is limited to firms with employees that are "covered"by unemployment insurance. CITYOFTIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 54 t , TIGARD MADE v,m:;in.AdValre t Dve srty Ertiploymeni Region (Clackamas, Multnomah, & Washington counties)to the City of Tigard's 2021 base. This method results in an average annual growth rate of 1.0%, with total job growth of 10,250 jobs over the 20-year forecast period. (See Figure 6.03) SCENARIO 2:ALTERNATIVE EMPLOYMENT FORECAST As a city in the Portland Metro region,Tigard also has growth projections for population, households and jobs prepared by the Metro regional government as part of its ongoing planning process. The latest adopted Urban Growth Report (UGR)for the region includes an estimate of Tigard employment in 2040 based on Metro's model of allocating forecasted growth across the region. In this case,the UGR included a forecast of just under 64,000 jobs in Tigard in 2040,which would translate into a growth rate from the 2021 baseline of 1.8%, The alternate Scenario 2 forecast presented here based on that growth rate results in a higher alternate forecast of nearly 19,000 new jobs over the planning period,or 85%greater than Scenario 1. FIGURE 6.03:COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE FORECASTS,CITY OF TIGARD I Industry 2021 2041 Chg. AAGR I 2021 2041 Chg. AAGR Construction 7,028 8,667 1,639 1.1%1 7,028 10,007 2,980 1.8% Manufacturing 2,153 2,399 247 0.5%1 2,153 2,586 433 0.9% Wholesale Trade 2,243 2,692 449 0.9%1 2,243 3,052 809 1.6%! !Retail Trade 6,854 7,392 537 0.4% 6,854 7,787 932 0.6% ;Transport.,Warehousing,Utilities ( 754 1,035 280 1.6% 754 1,284 529 2.7% Information 1 1,454 1,855 401 1.2% 1,454 2,191 737 2.1% Finance&Insurance 1 4,476 4,567 90 0.1% 4,476 4,630 154 0.2% Real Estate 827 943 116 0.7% 827 1,032 205 1.1% Professional&Technical Services 4,465 6,452 1,987 1.9% 4,465 8,291 3,826 3.1% Management&Admin.Services 5,285 7,035 1,749 1.4% 5,285 8,553 3,268 2.4%, Education 1,454 1,785 330 1.0%I 1,454 2,054 599 1.7%l 1HealthCare 3,482 4,808 1,326 1.6%1 3,482 5,992 2,511 2.8% Leisure&Hospitality 3,026 3,778 752 1.1% 3,026 4,399 1,372 1.9% Other Services 1,573 1,865 292 0.9% 1,573 2,097 524 1.4% Government 441 493 52 0.6% 441 533 92 0.9% TOTAL: j 45,517 55,766 10,250 1.0% 45,517 64,487 18,971 1.8% i Construction 11111111111111111111111166010, l 1 Manufacturing Inami Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transport.,Warehousing,Utilities aim Information Illiams Finance&Insurance L Real Estate L Professional&Technical Services Management&Admin.Services Education Mos i Health Care .1111111 Leisure&Hospitality 1111,10111 I *Baseline Scenario Other Services Government Adjusted Scenario 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 20-Year Job Growth(JI of Jobs) SOURCE:State of Oregon Employment Department,Metro,Johnson Economics CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 55 1k TIGARD MADE Maillail.Adaan.L DivraifyEngbyaant SUMMARY OF EMPLOYMENT FORECAST SCENARIOS The two forecast scenarios in this analysis range from 1.0%to 1.8% average annual growth. Job growth estimates range from 10,250 to 18,971 jobs. The greatest number of jobs are forecasted in construction, professional services,and health care. The fastest percentage growth rates are projected for professional services, health care,transportation/warehousing,and leisure&hospitality. The estimates in the preceding analysis are useful for creating a baseline understanding of growth prospects by industry. These are common and accepted approaches when looking at large geographic regions. Forecasts grounded in broad-based economic variables do not always account for the realities of local businesses and trends among evolving industries.Any long-term forecast is inherently uncertain and should be updated on a regular basis to reflect more current information. The 20-year forecasts were broken down into five-year increments,assuming a consistent rate of growth over the period. However,a 20-year forecast will include multiple business cycles,and that growth will be variable in practice. FIGURE 6.04:SUMMARY OF PROJECTION SCENARIOS,CITY OF TIGARD Overall Employment Net Change by Period Total Industry 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 21-26 26-31 31-36 36-41 21-41 SCENARIO I(OED Forecast) (Construction 7,028 7,406 7,805 8,225 8,667 378 399 420 443 1,639 Manufacturing 2,153 2,212 2,273 2,335 2,399 59 61 62 64 247 Wholesale Trade 2,243 2,347 2,457 2,572 2,692 105 110 115 120 449 Retail Trade 6,854 6,985 7,118 7,253 7,392 131 133 136 138 537 T.W.U. 1 754 816 883 956 1,035 62 67 73 79 280 Information 1,454 1,545 1,642 1,745 1,855 91 97 103 110 401 Finance&Insurance 4,476 4,499 4,521 4,544 4,567 22 23 23 23 90 Real Estate 827 855 883 913 943 28 29 29 30 116 Professional&Technical Services 4,465 4,896 5,368 5,885 6,452 430 472 517 567 1,987 Management&Admin.Services 5,285 5,677 6,098 6,550 7,035 392 421 452 485 1,749 Education 1,454 1,531 1,611 1,696 1,785 76 80 85 89 330 Health Care 3,482 3,774 4,091 4,435 4,808 293 317 344 373 1,326 Leisure&Hospitality 3,026 3,199 3,382 3,574 3,778 173 182 193 204 752 Other Services 1,573 1,642 1,713 1,787 1,865 68 71 75 78 292 Government 441 454 467 480 493 13 13 13 14 52 TOTAL: 45,517 47,837 50,311 52,950 55,766 2,321 2,474 2,639 2,816 10,250 SCENARIO 2(Metro Taz Based) Construction 7,028 7,677 8,386 9,161 10,007 649 709 775 846 2,980 Manufacturing 2,153 2,254 2,359 2,470 2,586 101 106 111 116 433 Wholesale Trade 2,243 2,422 2,616 2,825 3,052 180 194 209 226 809 Retail Trade 6,854 7,076 7,306 7,542 7,787 222 229 237 244 932 T.W.U. 754 861 984 1,124 1,284 107 122 140 160 529 Information 1,454 1,611 1,785 1,978 2,191 157 174 193 214 737 Finance&Insurance 4,476 4,514 4,553 4,591 4,630 38 38 39 39 154 Real Estate 827 874 924 977 1,032 47 50 53 56 205 Professional&Technical Services 4,465 5,212 6,084 7,102 8,291 747 872 1,018 1,188 3,826 Management&Admin.Services 5,285 5,961 6,724 7,584 8,553 676 762 860 970 3,268 Education 1,454 1,585 1,728 1,884 2,054 131 143 156 170 599 Health Care 3,482 3,988 4,568 5,232 5,992 506 580 664 761 2,511 Leisure&Hospitality 3,026 3,323 3,649 4,006 4,399 297 326 357 393 1,372 Other Services 1,573 1,690 1,816 1,951 2,097 117 126 135 145 524 Government 441 463 485 508 533 21 22 23 25 92 TOTAL: 45,517 49,513 53,966 58,936 64,487 3,996 4,453 4,969 5,552 18,971 SOURCE:State of Oregon Employment Department,Metro,Johnson Economics CITY OF TIGARD + ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 56 TIGARD MADE Maintain,Advance 3 DiversifyEmployment EMPLOYMENT LAND FORECAST The next step in the analysis is to convert projections of employment into forecasts of land demand over the planning period. The conversion begins by allocating employment by sector into a distribution of building typologies those economic activities usually utilize.As an example,insurance agents typically locate in traditional office space, usually along commercial corridors. However,a percentage of these firms locate in commercial retail space adjacent to retail anchors.Cross-tabulating this distribution provides an estimate of employment in each typology. The next step converts employment into space using estimates of the typical area per employee exhibited within each typology.Adjusting for a market vacancy assumption we arrive at an estimate of total space demand for each building type. Finally, the analysis considers the physical characteristics of individual building types and the amount of land they typically require for development.The site utilization metric commonly used is referred to as a "floor area ratio" or FAR. For example, assume a 25,000-square foot general industrial building requires roughly two acres to accommodate its structure,setbacks,parking,and necessary yard/storage space.This building would have a FAR of roughly 0.29. Demand for space is then converted to net acres using a standard FAR for each development form. LAND DEMAND ANALYSIS—BASELINE FORECAST In this step, projected employment growth is allocated into standard building typologies. The building typology matrix represents the share of sectoral employment that locates across various building types. The baseline forecast is used to demonstrate the methodology. FIGURE 6.05:DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT BY SPACE TYPE,CITY OF TIGARD 20-year Job Forecast BUILDING TYPE MATRIX Industry Sector Number AAGR Office Institutional Flex/B.P Gen.ind. Warehouse Retail Construction 1,6391 1.1% 14% 0% 18% 40% 18% 10% Manufacturing 247, 0.5% 8% 0% 24% 60% 8% 0% ;Wholesale Trade 4491 0.9% 8% 0% 22% 20% 40% 10% Retail Trade 537 0.4% 5% 1% 6% 0% 12% 76% T.W.U. 280 1.6% 15% 0% 12% 13% 55% 5% Information 401 1.2% 25% 0% 25% 40% 0% 10% Finance&insurance ( 90 0.1% 72% 1% 5% 1% 1% 20% !Real Estate 116' 0.7% 72% 1% 5% 1% 1% 20% Professional&Technical Services 1,9871 1.9% 72% 1% 5% 1% 1% 20% Management&Admin.Services 1,749' 1.4% 72% 1% 5% 1% 1% 20% Education 330 1.0% 30% 53% 5% 1% 1% 10% Health Care 1,326 1.6% 30% 53% 2% 0% 0% 15% ,Leisure&Hospitality 752 1.1% 20% 1% 7% 1% 1% 70% lOther Services 292 0.9% 72% 1% 5% 1% 1% 20% Government ( 52 0.6% 43% 35% 5% 1% 1% 15% TOTAL 10,250 1.0% 41% 9% 9% 11% 7% 22% Source:Johnson Economics CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 57 TIGARD MADE Martin,Advance 6 DiversifyEmploymem FIGURE 6.06:DISTRIBUTION OF SPACE BY BUILDING TYPE AND INDUSTRY SECTOR,CITY OF TIGARD Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade T.W.U. Information Finance&Insurance Real Estate Professional&Technical Services Management&Admin.Services Education Health Care Leisure&Hospitality Other Services Government 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ■Office le Institutional ,= Flex/B.P a Gen.ind. a Warehouse Retail Source:Johnson Economics Under the employment forecast scenario, employment housed in office space and retail accounts for the greatest share of growth,followed by employment housed in general industrial,institutional,flex/business park,and warehouse/distribution space. FIGURE 6.07:NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT ALLOCATED BY BUILDING TYPE,CITY OF TIGARD—2021-2041 20-year Job Forecast NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY BUILDING TYPE-2021-2041 Industry Sector Number AAGR Office Institutional Flex/B.P Gen.Ind. Warehouse Retail Total Construction 1,639 1.1% 230 0 295 656 295 164 1,639 Manufacturing 247 05% 20 0 59 148 20 0 247 IWholesaleTrade I 449 0.9% 36 0 99 90 180 45 449 Retail Trade 537 0.4% 27 5 32 0 64 408 537 T.W.U. 280 1.6% 42 0 34 36 154 14 280 i Information 401 1.2% 100 0 100 160 0 40 401 Finance&Insurance 90 0.1% 65 1 S 1 1 18 90 Real Estate 116 0.7% 84 1 6 1 1 23 116 Professional&Technical Services 1,987 1.9% 1,431 20 99 20 20 397 1,987 Management&Admin.Services 1,749 1.4% 1,260 17 87 17 17 350 1,749 !Education i 330 1.0% 99 175 17 3 3 33 330 Health Care 1,326 1.6% 398 703 27 0 0 199 1,326 leisure&Hospitality 752 1.1% 150 8 53 8 8 526 752 Other Services 292 0.9% 210 3 15 3 3 58 292 Government 52 0.6% 22 18 3 1 1 8 52 TOTAL 10,250 1.0% 4,173 951 929 1,144 767 2,284 10,250 Source:Johnson Economics *Table shows figures for Scenario 1. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 58 TIGARD MADE (tied n ache.,:.4 n:.40tr imam Employment growth estimates by building type are then converted to demand for physical space. This conversion assumes the typical space needed per employee on average.This step also assumes a market vacancy rate,acknowledging that equilibrium in real estate markets is not 0%vacancy.We assume a 10% vacancy rate for office, retail, and flex uses, as these forms have high rates of speculative multi-tenant usage. A 5% rate is used for general industrial and warehouse-these uses have higher rates of owner occupancy that lead to lower overall vacancy. Institutional uses are assumed to have no vacancy. The demand for space is converted into an associated demand for acreage using an assumed FAR. The combined space and FAR assumptions provide estimates of job densities, determined on a per net- developable acre basis. FIGURE 6.08:NET ACRES REQUIRED BY BUILDING TYPOLOGY,CITY OF TIGARD-2021-2041 SCENARIO 1(BASELINE)AND SCENARIO 2(ADJUSTED) BASELINE SCENARIO DEMAND BY GENERAL USE TYPOLOGY,2021-2041 Office Institutional Flex/B.P Gen.Ind. Warehouse Retail Total Employment Growth 4,173 951 929 1,144 767 2,284 10,250 Avg.SF Per Employee 350 350 990 600 1,000 500: 518 Demand for Space(SF) 1,461,000 333,000 920,000 686,000 767,000 1,142,000 5,309,000 Floor Area Ratio(FAR) 0.35 0.35 0.30 0.30 0.35 0.25 0.31 Market Vacancy 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 8.2% Implied Density(Jobs/Acre) 39.2 43.6 11.9 20.7 14.5 19.6 23.8 Net Acres Required 106.5 21.8 78.2 55.3 53.0 116.5 431.3 (Gross Acres Required 133.1 27.3 97.8 69.1 66.2 145.6 539.1 ADJUSTED SCENARIO DEMAND BY GENERAL USE TYPOLOGY,2021-2041 Office Institutional flex/B.P Gen.Ind. Warehouse Retail Total Employment Growth 7,817 1,783 1,702 2,077 1,398 4,194± 18,971 Avg.SF Per Employee 350 350 990 600 1,000 500 i 516 Demand for Space(SF) 2,736,000 624,000 1,685,000 1,246,000 1,398,000 2,097,000 9,786,000 Floor Area Ratio(FAR) 0.35 0.35 0.30 0.30 0.35 0.25 0.31 Market Vacancy 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 100.0% Implied Density(Jobs/Acre) 39.2 43.6 11.9 20.7 14.5 19.6 23.9 Net Acres Required 199.4 40.9 143.3 100.4 96.5 214.0 794.4 Gross Acres Required 249.2 51.2 179.1 125.5 120.7 267.4 993.0 Source:Johnson Economics Commercial office and retail densities are 40 and 20 jobs per acre, respectively.Industrial uses range from 21 for general industrial to fewer than 15 jobs per acre for warehouse/distribution.The overall weighted employment density is 24 jobs per acre. • As shown in Figure 6.08,the projected 10,250 job expansion in the local employment base using the Scenario 1 would require an estimated 539 gross acres of employment land. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANAlYSIS PAGE 59 1. ......... --- TIGARD MADE Maintain,Advance d Diuerslfy Emptaymee • Under Scenario 1, there is an estimated need for 306 acres of land for commercial uses (office, institutional, retail) and an estimated need for 233 acres of land for industrial uses (industrial, warehouse,business park). • The greater projected 18,971 job expansion in the local employment base using alternative Scenario 2 would require an estimated 993 gross acres of employment land. • Under Scenario 2,there is an estimated need for 568 acres of land for commercial uses (office, institutional, retail) and an estimated need for 425 acres of land for industrial uses (industrial, warehouse,business park). • In each case, the distribution of projected demand is more weighted toward commercial land (57%)than industrial land (43%). In addition to ensuring adequate capacity for employment-driven land needs over a 20-year horizon, local jurisdictions are also required to demonstrate that they have an adequate capacity of readily available sites to meet their more immediate needs,which are defined as employment land needs over the next five years. As shown in the following table,that need is estimated at 125 gross acres under the slower-growth baseline scenario,and 215 gross acres under the higher-growth adjusted scenario. FIGURE 6.09:NET ACRES REQUIRED BY BUILDING TYPOLOGY,TIGARD-5-YEAR BASELINE SCENARIO DEMAND BY GENERAL USE TYPOLOGY,2021-2041 Office Institutional Flex/B.P Gen.Ind. Warehouse Retail Total , Employment Growth 932 212 213 264 177 522E 2,321 Avg.SF Per Employee 350 350 990 600 1,000 500 521 Demand for Space(SF) 326,000 74,000 211,000 159,000 177,000 261,000 1,208,000 Floor Area Ratio(FAR) 0.35 0.35 0.30 0.30 0.35 0.25, 0.31 Market Vacancy 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%1 10.0% Implied Density(Jobs/Acre) 39.2 43.7 11.9 20.6 14.4 20.7 23.2 Net Acres Required 23.8 4.9 17.9 12.8 12.2 25.2 i 100.1 i Gross Acres Required 29.7 6.1 22.4 16.0 15.3 31.5! 125.2 ADJUSTED SCENARIO DEMAND BY GENERAL USE TYPOLOGY,2021-2041 Office Institutional Flex/B.P Gen.Ind. Warehouse Retail i Total Employment Growth 1,610 367 366 454 303 898 3,996 Net Acres Required 41.0 8.4 30.8 21.9 20.9 43.4 172.2 1 , Gross Acres Required 51.3 10.5 38.5 27.4 26.2 54.3 215.2 Source:Johnson Economics *Table shows figures for Scenario 1. There is a significant distinction between capacity and readily available site supply. The readily available inventory must currently have appropriate entitlements and infrastructure capacity to accommodate short- term development. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 60 I q"-'' l uric TIGARD MADE M.,NIeln,Advance d DwerdayEnpkymem EMPLOYMENT LAND NEED FORECAST—NEEDED SITE SIZES As discussed in Section IV, the local employment base is largely dominated by small employers of 10 or fewer employees(75%of firms),which is a common pattern across most markets. There are two employers of 500 or more employees,and 11 with 250 to 500 employees. Some of these may have employees spread over multiple locations. Figure 6.10 presents the projected need for new commercial and industrial sites by size based on the industry growth projections presented above(baseline forecast). These site needs are an estimate of future needs to aid comparison to available supply(see following section.) FIGURE 6.10:ESTIMATED NUMBER OF SITES NEEDED BY SIZE(ACRES),TIGARD OREGON BASELINE SCENARIO LAND USE OT0.9 1to4.9 5to9.9 10 to 19.9 20to29.9 30to49.9 Seto TOTAL TOTAL 100+acres acres acres acres acres acres acres acres (sites) (acres) Office 239 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 , 254 133 Institutional 47 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 601 47 Retail 103 25 2 1 0 0 0 0 131 146: Commercial Total: 389 51 4 1 0 0 0 0 445 326 Flex/B.P 38 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 48 98 Gen.Ind. 40 9 1 1 0 0 0 0 51 69 Warehouse 24 11 2 1 0 0 0 0 38 122 Industrial Total: 102 26 6 3 0 0 0 0 137 289 TOTAL; I 491 77 10 4 0 0 0 0 382 6151, -- _ --- _........._... ..------- Source: Johnson Economics,Oregon Employment Department The estimates presented in Figure 6.10 are based on the average firm sizes of businesses in the different industry subsectors in Tigard. However, economic development and job growth are dynamic, and this estimate of site needs is unlikely to match actual future needs exactly. Communities should maintain flexibility and ensure a supply of a variety of site types with short-term availability,as allowed through the Goal 9 EOA process. There will be a continued demand for real estate space and sites of all sizes to accommodate the full range of employers across sectors, but with a preponderance of sites for small to medium-sized firms. ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS IN LAND DEMAND Beyond a consideration of gross acreage,there is a significantly broader range of site characteristics that industries would require to accommodate future growth.Some key findings are summarized here: ■ Industrial buildings are generally more susceptible to slope constraints due to larger building footprints. For a site to be competitive for most industrial uses, a 10% slope is the maximum preferred slope for development sites.Office and commercial uses are generally smaller and more CITY OF TIGARD 1 ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 61 TIGARD Maintain,Advanced titveailyEmploymert vertical, allowing for slopes up to 15%. Sites with slope of up to 25% are still considered developable, but with some challenges. Site users will prefer lesser slopes if available. ■ Most industrial users require some direct access to a major transportation route, particularly manufacturing and distribution industries that move goods throughout the region and beyond. 10 to 20 miles to a major interstate is generally acceptable for most manufacturing activities, but distribution activities require 5 miles or less and generally prefer a direct interstate linkage. Visibility and access are important to most commercial activities and site location with both attributes from a major commercial arterial is commonly required. • Retail users prefer locations with high visibility and high pass-by traffic, along with reasonable automobile access and on-site or nearby parking. Areas with high foot and bike traffic such as town centers can generally support small retailers and dining establishments if surrounding population density is sufficient. • Access and capacity for water,power,gas,and sewer infrastructure is more important to industrial than commercial operations. Water/sewer lines of up to 10" are commonly required for large manufacturers. • Fiber telecommunications networks are likely to be increasingly required in site selection criteria for many commercial office and manufacturing industries. Medical, high-tech, creative office, research & development, and most professional service industries will prefer or require strong fiber access in the coming business cycles. Appendix A provides detailed site preferences by land use and sub-sector typology. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 62 TIGARD MADE Maintain,advace 8 DverslfyFmpbymem VII. RECONCILIATION OF LAND NEED & SUPPLY As outlined in the Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI), the City of Tigard has a modest inventory of available sites relative to anticipated employment growth. The available inventory for both commercial and industrial users is constrained by the prior build-out of most of the city's employment land, as well as the Urban Growth Boundary to the west. Roughly 83%of this buildable land is found in the city's existing commercial and mixed-use zones which are generally intended for a combination of office-based, retail and commercial service uses. Roughly 17%of the identified buildable lands are in industrial zones that are intended for a combination of light and heavy industrial uses. An additional 35 acres of buildable land are in the River Terrace planning areas in the city's urban reserves. This land is included in Figure 7.01 for reference but is not yet considered active inventory for the purposes of this EOA. (The future land use in these urban reserve areas is still under planning but are presumed to be some form of commercial or commercial mixed-use in the future. The most recent assumptions available for the size and position of the employment uses have been used in this analysis.) Roughly 39%of this acreage is identified as"vacant", 19%is in "partially vacant"sites,and 42%in potential "redevelopment"sites. Most"redevelopable"acreage in the city is in commercial designations. In total, there are an estimated 114 vacant or partially vacant acres, and 83 acres of potential redevelopment sites. The total 196 buildable acres include 163 commercial acres, and 33 industrial acres. Figure 7.01(following page)provides a detailed summary of the estimated BLI of employment lands. Please see Appendix A for a detailed explanation of the BLI methodology and mapping. Comparing this inventory to the 20-year forecast of employment land need generated earlier in this analysis indicates that the projected demand exceeds the estimated remaining capacity for new employment development. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 63 TIGARD Maintain,Advance f Drverslfy Empttymen[ FIGURE 7.01:BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS,CITY OF TIGARD-2021 Vacant Land Partially Vacant Land Redevelopabte Land4t ILW .E '_° ZoneNet Net Net Net Abbreviation Number of Buildable Number of Buildable Number of Buildable Number of Buildable Parcels Parcels Parcels Parcels Acreage Acreage Acreage Acreage Commercial Zones C-C(Community Commercial) 1 26.23 0 0 0 0 1 26.2 C-G(General Commercial) 5 0.64 19 6.72 8 20.92 32 28.3 C-N(Neighborhood Commercial) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 C-P(Professional Commercial) 4 1.07 8 1.51 3 3.84 15 6.4 MU-CBD(Mixed Use Central Bus.) 3 0.21 23 4.84 4 5.5 30 10.6 MUC(Mixed Use Commercial) 3 2.4 2 1.38 4 11.29 9 15.1 MUC-1(Mixed Use Commercial) 0 0 0 0 1 1.12 1. 1.1 MUE(Mixed Use Employment) 0 0 1 7.64 0 0 1 7.6 MUE-1(Mixed Use Employment) 14 9.5 7 2.83 2 2.76 23 15.1 MUE-2(Mixed Use Employment) 4 1.39 0 0 1. 4.57 5 6.0 MUR-1*(Mixed Use Residential) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 MUR-2*(Mixed Use Residential) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 TMU(Triangle Mixed Use) 25 14.87 23 8.43 9 23.52 57 46.8 Commercial subtotal 59 56.3 83 33.4 32 73.5 174 163.2 Industrial Zones I-H(Heavy Industrial) 0 0 0 0 1 2.85 1 2.9 I-L(Light Industrial) 8 2.64 0 0 1 6.14 9 8.8 I-P(Industrial Park) 8 18.3 6 2.86 0 0 14 21.2 Industrial subtotal 16 20.9 6 2.9 2 9.0 24 32.8 Oty Total 75 1 77.3 89 36.2 34 82.5 198 196.0 Vacant Land Partially Vacant Land Redevetopable Land r:, )' Number of Net Number of Net Number of Net Net Number of Buildable Buildable Buildable Buildable Parcels Acreage Parcels Acreage Parcels Acreage Parcels Acreage River Terrace Westt 7 30.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 7 30 River Terrace Southt 2 5.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 2 5 Urban Reserve subtotal 9 35.0 0 0.0 _ 0 0.0 9 35.0 Notes .Only those specific tax lots identified in footnote 12 of Tigard Community Development Code Table 18.120.1. t Only those areas identified for employment in the City's April 2021 River Terrace 2.0 Concept Plan Source:Mackenzie Figure 7.02(following page)presents the BLI broken down by presumed development typology(i.e.,office, retail,or industrial uses)most likely to be developed in each zone. For instance,the Community Commercial zone is likely to house mostly retail use, but with some small office users, while the General Commercial zone is assumed to house mostly retail use. These assumptions are generalized given the difficulty of predicting where future businesses will locate. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 64 ME „�i'p.�"p" Ji A?S'mi. . TIGARD MADE MabaIn.AMaance t OkersgyEmployment FIGURE 7.02:RECONCILIATION OF BLI CAPACITY AND PROJECTED DEMAND,CITY OF TIGARD-20 YEAR BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY(SUPPLY) Total Net Zone Abbreviation Buildable Retail office Industrial Flex Space Acreage Acreage Acreage Acreage Acreage Commercial Zones ':C-C(Community Commercial) 26.2 19.7 6.6 0.0 0.0 C-G(General Commercial) 28.3 28.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 C-P(Professional Commercial) 6.4 1.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 MU-CBD(Mixed Use Central Bus.) 10.6 5.3 5.3 0.0 0.0 MUC(Mixed Use Commercial) 15.1 11.3 3.8 0.0 0.0 MUC-1(Mixed Use Commercial) 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 MUE(Mixed Use Employment) 7.6 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 MUE-1(Mixed Use Employment) 15.1 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 MUE-2(Mixed Use Employment) 6.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TMU(Triangle Mixed Use) 46.8 35.1 11.7 0.0 0.0 `Commercial subtotal 163.2 130.1 33.0 0.0 0.0 Industrial Zones I-H(Heavy Industrial) 2.9 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 I-L(Light Industrial) 8.8 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.0 I-P(Industrial Park) 21.2_ 0.0 0.0 5.3 15.9 Industrial subtotal 32.8 0.0 0.0 16.9 15.9 TOTAL CITY BUILDABLE ACRES 196.0 130.1 33.0 16.9 15.9 Urban Reserve Areas River Terrace Westt 30.0 22.5 7.5 0.0 0.0 River Terrace Southt 5.0 3.8 1.3 0.0 0.0 Urban Reserve subtotal 35 26.25 8.8 0.0 0.0 PROJECTED 20-YEAR DEMAND(BASELINE SCENARIO) Total Retail Office Industrial Flex land Use Category Demand Demand Demand Demand Demand (Gross Acres) (Acres) (Acres) (Acres) (Acres) Commercial Uses: 306.01. 145.6 160.4 Industrial Uses 233.0 135.3 97.8 TOTAL DEMAND(GROSS ACRES): 539.1 145.6 160.4 135.3 97.8 RECONCILIATION Land Capacity-Surplus or Land Use Category Total Retail Office Industrial Flex Space Commercial Uses: Industrial Uses TOTAL NEED(GROSS ACRES): Employment zones with no identified buildable parcels are excluded from table. t Only those areas identified for employment in the City's April 2021 River Terrace 2.0 Concept Plan Source:Mackenzie,Johnson Economics Cir OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 65 TIGARD Maintain,Advance 8 Uversify Emeloymen; Land Supply and Demand (acres): The comparison of BLI (supply) to the forecasted 20-year need for employment lands (demand) show a probable deficit of land over the planning period if Tigard is to accommodate the growth in employment projected by this analysis. Under the slower-growth Scenario 1 presented in Figure 7.02,there is a projected short fall of 143 acres of commercial land,and 200 acres of industrial land. Under the higher-growth Scenario 2,there is a projected short fall of 405 acres of commercial land,and 392 acres of industrial land. Potential Future Land Supply: In addition to the currently available inventory of buildable land identified in Tigard,there are additional sources of potential future supply that might alleviate the projected shortfall of employment land somewhat. There are two main sources of potential future inventory: the urban reserve areas,known as River Terrace West and South,and potential redevelopment and intensification of uses in the Washington Square Mall Area. Combined, these areas are projected to potentially supply an additional 102 acres of commercial land for office and retail uses. These areas are not anticipated to include industrial capacity. This amount of additional buildable commercial land inventory is not sufficient to completely absorb the projected shortfall. Figure 7.03 summarizes the potential future land supply in these areas. (The acreage depicted in the Washington Square area are not literal. The acreage represents the potential square footage assumptions of new commercial real estate,converted to hypothetical equivalent acreage using the same assumptions of FAR used in the EOA methodology.) FIGURE 7.03:POTENTIAL FUTURE EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY J _ Land Capacity-Surplus or Land Use Category Total Retail Office Industrial Flex Space River Terrace Westt 30.0 22.5 7.5 River Terrace Southt 5.0 3.8 1.3 Wash.Sq.Area Redevelopment 67.4 12.8 54.7 TOTAL NEED(GROSS ACRES): 102.4 39.0 63.4 na na t Only those areas identified for employment in the City's April 2021 River Terrace 2.0 Concept Plan Source: Johnson Economics,Mackenzie,City of Tigard Land Supply and Demand (Site Size): The following table presents the BLI broken down by the estimated site sizes of buildable parcels in each zone. There are an estimated 198 sites in the city(excluding the urban reserve areas. Most of these sites are less than one acre(78%).Of the remainder 18%are between one and five acres,and only 5%are five acres or larger. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 66 TIGARD 4.aintal,A3,,arice 8 N,ers'(yEmpbymert FIGURE 7.04:BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS,BY SIZE OF SITE CITY OF TIGARD-2021 0TO.9 1to4.9 5to9.9 10to19.9 20to29.9 30 or more Zone Abbreviation acres acres acres acres acres acres Total Commercial Zones C C(Community Commercial) -1 1 - - - 1 - 1 � C-G(General Commercial) I 24 7 1 - - - 32 'C-P(Professional Commercial) 8 4 3 - - 15 MU-CBD(Mixed Use Central Bus.) 28 2 - - - 30 MUC(Mixed Use Commercial) 4 - 9 MUC-1(Mixed Use Commercial) - 1 MUE-1 (Mixed Use Employment) 21 - 23 MUE-2(Mixed Use Employment) 3 - 5 TMU (Triangle Mixed Use) 45 1 57 Commercial subtotal 133 34 6 0 1 0 174 Industrial Zones I-H(Heavy Industrial) -'I L 1 - - - 1 I-L(Light Industrial) 8 - 1 - -I - 9 I-P(Industrial Park) 13 1 - - - 14 Industrial subtotal 21 2, 1 0 0 0 24 City Total I 1541 361 7, 01 11 01 198 0 TO.9 1 to 4.9 5 to 9.9 10 to 19.9 20 to 29.9 30 to 49.9 Total Zone Abbreviation acres acres acres acres acres acres River Terrace Westt I 0 7 0 0 0 0 7 'River Terrace Southt 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 Urban Reserve subtotal 0 9, 01 01 0 0 9 Notes t Only those areas identified for employment in the City's April 2021 River Terrace 2.0 Concept Plan Source:Mackenzie The following figure presents a comparison of supply and demand for employment sites over the 20-year planning period. As noted in the prior section,the greatest share of demand is expected to be for relatively small sites of under one acre. CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 67 TIGARD Madam AdvanceOrverVtiEmpbymem FIGURE 7.05:RECONCILIATION OF BLI CAPACITY AND PROJECTED DEMAND,BY SIZE OF SITE CITY OF TIGARD—20 YEAR Commercial Sites Industrial Sites 100+acres Supply 100+acres 0 Supply at Est.Need V Est.Need 50 to 99.9 acres 0 50 to 99.9 acres 0 0 30 to 49.9 acres 30 to 49.9 acres O 20 to 29.9 acres 1 0 0 20 to 29.9 acres 0 10 to 19.9 acres 10 to 19.9 acres 13 5 to 9.9 acres 6 5 to 9.9 acres 1 I6 1 to 4.9 acres .34 1 to 4.9 acres 2 26 511. 0 TO.9 acres 133 0 TO.9 acres 38921 102 0 100 200 300 400 0 100 200 300 400 No.of Sites No.of Sites Source: Johnson Economics,Mackenzie CITY OF TIGARD I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS PAGE 68 MACKENZIE . TECHNICAL MEMO: CITY OF TIGARD EMPLOYMENT LANDS BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY AND SITE SUITABILITY ANALYSIS To Johnson Economics For Tigard MADE Economic Opportunities Analysis Dated June 30,2021 DRAFT Project Number 2210073.00 MACKENZIE M Since 1960 .. RiverEast Center 11515 SE Water Ave,Suite 100,Portland,OR 97214 M F TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction and Purpose 1 II. Employment Lands Buildable Lands Inventory 2 Study Area 2 Vacant and Redevelopable Parcels 6 Development Constraints 8 Buildable Employment Lands 10 Buildable Employment Lands Parcel Sizes 14 III. Site Suitability Analysis 15 Site Characteristics 15 Retail 15 Office 16 Industrial 17 Site Suitability Observations 18 Commercial 19 Industrial 19 Developer Comments -• 19 Sites Most Likely to Advance the Economic Development Objectives 20 LIST OF TABLES Table 1:Tigard BLI Employment Areas 4 Table 2:Tigard Employment Buildable Lands Inventory 10 Table 3:Redevelopable Land Cost Estimates 12 Table 4:Tigard Urban Reserves Potential Buildable Lands 13 Table 5:Tigard Employment NET Buildable Lands Inventory Parcel Sizes 14 Table 6: Retail Preferred Site Characteristics 16 Table 7:Office Park Preferred Site Characteristics 17 Table 8: Industrial Preferred Site Characteristics 18 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1:City Limits and Urban Reserves Map 3 Figure 2: Employment Land Zoning Map 5 Figure 3:Vacant and Redevelopable Employment Land Map 7 Figure 4: Development Constraints Map 9 a Figure 5: Employment Land Buildable Lands Inventory Map 11 APPENDIX A. Business Oregon Industrial Development Competitiveness Matrix t. INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE Tigard MADE is an endeavor by the City of Tigard,Oregon to Maintain,Advance,and Diversify Employment in the City.As one component of this effort,the City has embarked upon the 2021 Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA), which is being carried out by a consultant team led by Johnson Economics, with support from Mackenzie and from Angelo Planning Group. This technical memo describes Mackenzie's findings related to the employment areas buildable lands inventory and site suitability analysis.Information from this document will be incorporated into the EOA's reconciliation of employment land supply and demand in the main report by Johnson Economics. 1 II. EMPLOYMENT LANDS BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY As part of this project,the City of Tigard requested a buildable lands inventory(BLI)for employment lands to identify those parcels available for and suitable for development by commercial and industrial users. Mackenzie has compiled information on buildable lands to further the City's economic development objectives and to satisfy provisions of Oregon Statewide Land Use Planning Goal 9, Economic Development, as codified at Oregon Administrative Rules (OAR) 660, Division 9 to implement Oregon Revised Statutes (ORS) 197.712(2). To determine the City's buildable lands, Mackenzie utilized geographic information systems (GIS) data from the City, Metros, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and Bing Maps to review information on parcels, zoning,assessed value,and topographic conditions to: • Categorize land zoned or planned for employment; • Screen out properties which are already developed; • Determine which properties are vacant, partially vacant,or redevelopable/infill opportunities; • Deduct areas with site constraints that preclude development;and • Identify the remaining buildable area of vacant, partially vacant, and redevelopable sites after deducting for constraints. The results of this analysis, which was based on OAR 660-009-0015(3),are described below. Study Area The City requested that the analysis include not only the City Limits but also Tigard's Urban Reserves located west of the City, as depicted in Figure 1. Areas in the Urban Reserves are outside Metro's urban growth boundary (UGB) and thus not currently available for development, however, as the City has identified portions of the urban reserves for future employment use, those areas have been included in this analysis on a speculative basis. 1 Metro compiles data from multiple sources,e.g., Washington County Assessor data. 1 5WRi0ERr RD, -- I P Figure 1 _. i l) 41 dyr °o City of Tigard City Limits& ! g 4+ Urban Reserves 1 SW RROCRIMANST 1_ I a i: r .-' SWTAYLORSFERRYRD• Tigard,Oregon SW REMMER RD E i R Ii= I ^I5 i t .ala c* LEGEND 1 Q_ —sW WM?RD....__ .,_j 2 A. :. 1 a a \ o brei Tigard City Limits w �: e� Sy Tigard Urban Reserves 4 City of Tigard �``� /�'Q HiQ River Terrace 4'4, �° f,,.roR D fr , X44°4 West(Upper) 4\ ° '� 4— sY *�N IS '� MELROSEST t. o a. ti, s, SW GAA ROr.f r. .._.. SW MCDONALD ST Ali `---.RRUSE WAY °' ! !Feet MEADOWS RD—• _ /' I 0 1500 3.000 6,000 n9 sw RONO'A RV ..�!�-_____-DONrrA RD � } Inch=3.000 teat �' SW RULl MOUNTAIN RD / `£ 8 N i �,: agp 'a wwa wr. we.+M+r.oiaIna . /41 cla 1 ,. u.w,�. .0.0.4.0.,. River Terrace 3 i , '4,''.. A, .w�._.. ""."'«'.. 0a. i 1/ �`+re elf .� West(Lower) t swKEY?IMORDZr SWDURHAM RD § `° / 11 OS° �N 1) Tua\atin Rive I �t J� , I .»i „d J f rC+ d / t F sFefn«R $ River Terrace South i8 SWIDWFp/ L_ xARrRoi r ,ro ROONES' (._ .-'_ � ll \ lake OfWepp ._..... ___ I` a4 �/ FERNY RD �C ty &boon ■Y=� - 20C�f Miueaelt Corporation ____.—�_.-...._SUrr1M4fMl ab—, 1 .... � ZQi2t 7gnTom _._ MACKENZIE. a '4, �` '6."""> //y savlswDslro.---pEFrarm---� W WM/U RD t., %O'RO )ai.=te.lflP• t1a7.ata.t2eb• MGeNi[.CDM ..._.� jo N stab`pOD ° N reERO ST W y�- R �� ' � T - e row _.,...�'. •ZM.MM.txee SKI MMe.•Y.W4 3 w The areas noted in Table 1 were analyzed as part of this employment land BLI. The commercial and industrial zoning classifications were based on their categories identified in Chapters 18.120 (Commercial Zones) and 18.130(Industrial Zones) of the Tigard Community Development Code. Areas in City Limits one Abbreviation Zone Nam ,: Commercial Zones C-C Community Commercial C-G General Commercial C-N Neighborhood Commercial C-P Professional/Administrative Commercial MU-CBD Mixed-Use Central Business District MUC Mixed-Use Commercial MUC-1 _ Mixed-Use Commercial MUE Mixed-Use Employment MUE-1 Mixed-Use Employment MUE-2 ! Mixed-Use Employment MUR-1* Mixed-Use Residential MUR-2* Mixed-Use Residential TMU Triangle Mixed Use Industrial Zones 1-H Heavy Industrial l-L Light Industrial -P Industrial Park Urban Reserve Areas River Terrace Westt River Terrace Southt Notes * Only those specific tax lots identified in footnote 12 of Tigard Community Development Code Table 18.120.1. t Only those areas identified for employment in the City's April 2021 River Terrace 2.0 Concept Plan. Those employment areas listed in Table 1 are graphically depicted in Figure 2. • I SWRGERTRD ,.oFigure 2: R.a 1 i k o��. City of Tigard / 0 ;,,, Employment Land ,,„- ,s. 1 1 Zoning Map SW BROC MAN ST 4. Tigard,Oregon M SW TAYLORS FERRY RD ---+ g - g� "? .: " LEGEND *; -M l Z, f Tigard Oty LImRs 0 t3' !Tigard UMen Reserves f 3 I f$ ae�� CONING merpal C CI.' l sa it -'1 l... t C-G GeneCornral Commercial cial ,.� rn//"S "'C-G General Commerc4l I t ,.. .y� (+V 4,0 -JQ e, C-N Neighborhood CommerclN I st R'Y, S_'er4., 'a � .C-P Professional(AdmMletrahve Commercial •�. • T• •' .^^1 MU-CED Meted-Use Central Business District II P? , pp• " k I.1s '^^"^t'MUCM{sed-U.Commercial 44 MlK 171+ , I \!4►o "ma MUC-1 Mhed•USe Commercial .e a (`'o DAR `'�� MUE Mixed-Use Employment \.p C-c 1 I.P '^1.� ''s'"-s^w^^w.,..„Y°: 'P-Po .. MUE-I Meted-Use Employment 'i /-a�pE-.� I .1 MISE-2 Mixed Use Emp{otment C �WALNUTST.-...'"•'` 0�1!. ABU-1IT 'Rett. o '®r TAU Triangle Mixed Use `'/}Q _ —_ - �,,.r' -IA!, !I•N Heavy industrial t ' .• ^2,, p I-LLlgl.t industrial `1'�D1.0 --MELROSE ST i-P Industrial Palk 4O CEO MIs, Y•p tit, 3,2 rc ` ssYYs C.C. I-P ' I P`NS j, - __ ,p"/ . SW GAARDEST SWMmONA[D 57 F� 1 L p�.l '-' _RRIESE WAY �. � .. _.. Y v l'{{ �M£ALIOWS RO .'t"Wgt' SSV BANTA RD- -RON,TA RD 3¢nn f.•. 'rQ •SW MAL MDUARA/N RD 1T.-_ �_. $ h i t. 1g ' .aux..:. Q t 22 D�;' 1.% "��to ..a..>........ c e R 1-P opt amt,....... et 10,r- 1-, 4 //if rMM K.. RD / ._.CSL_. -J r''_C`' �.SW BEEF BEND _.. s1A DURNAM Ito 0 � r .I"P FEP JO '1,05T'aputtrti've:470' �ISJO� gpY RDM'a,.: Tia\atinRipe, f '� ��' rtrand�, yGresMm�� y �p9 �� ,fNYRD�' lske .�r � ' wen t.r.n ) I N WIIW,rvdb _�`_� ' %2021 Mloioaoe Corporation ' .._._.Sw T1AeEATRB RD-,` V b "7021 TomTPm g Al, Itc' S� AO' " J, _... _�I,4' ^•..�. SIV CNA{OS RD_C7ILLiLTRD.-•Ai MAC!<E N 1 E. S.L1 >oLesa.sew• sos.faatsea• r+cxwtt.con W LE - 8--- -- 9� - y 12/ e. ,.e. , .�.'''- 1 0-SW NYBERG ST—..se __.. + /rte N5}i R,`" •6� SW U touraram ."..ons U..v.n 5 M . Vacant and Redevelopable Parcels To identify parcels which may be available for economic development, Mackenzie utilized GIS software to determine which parcels with commercial or industrial zoning were vacant, partially vacant, or redevelopable,as follows: ■ The vacant employment parcels were identified as being those parcels in the zones identified in Table 1 that Washington County Assessor data identify as having a building valuation of 0 and which had no visually identifiable development based on aerial photography. Parcels were reviewed on an individual basis without regard to ownership or proximity that could allow for aggregation by developers. ■ The partially vacant employment parcels were identified as being those parcels in the zones identified in Table 1 with less than 2,000 SF developed and the developed area is under 10% of the tax lot area.This approach mirrors the methodology used by Metro in its 2018 Buildable Lands Inventory. • The redevelopable/infill employment parcels were identified based on coordination with Johnson Economics staff's knowledge of the local economy and their assessment of conditions which would likely increase attractiveness for site redevelopment. Three distinct methodologies were used, depending on use category and location. For industrial employment areas, this included parcels over 2 acres with building values less than 30% of the total land value. For the Central Business District (CBD),this included parcels over 0.5 acres with building values less than 30%of the total land value. For all other Commercial employment areas,this included parcels larger than one acre with building values less than 30%of the total land value. Following GIS analysis to identify parcels in each of the three categories, Mackenzie refined the results as follows: • To incorporatedirection provided by City of Tigard staff for specific parcels where staff had institutional knowledge of the employment land inventory; • To remove GIS irregularities such as small slivers of land that are likely a result of misaligned data sets provided by multiple sources; • To graphically display the Washington Square as partially vacant, in light of the operator's intentions to alter usage in the future. This acreage is not included in the tables below as the potential buildout is being addressed by Johnson Economics in its analysis of future employment rather than based on acreage in the BLI. A map of the vacant, partially vacant, and redevelopable parcels is included as Figure 3. swaRmrRa I 140 ea Figure 3 I t i t42 Washington c�`�� City of Tigard � � Square Mali Vacant and Redevelopabl( � 1 Employment Land 'JSWWIOO�'"x--,- Tigard,Oregon a 1 Sul ranORS rEDRrao- .._... SW REMMER RD g �� ir :. �-- _...__ r ilt i 4t IV to LEGEND 1 Q- ----...sw WEIR RD - _ ,-, y / ' Tigard City limits / IS fyii e UM Commercial-Fully Vacant / r4.,, R -.—_ 1I jf// Commercial-RartiaM Vacant '^ a ,../R► y i ` �� ` Commercial-RedeveloRabIe\> t 4 .s a '.7& 4 /T'¢ /' ,�. id I — Industrial-Fully Vacant aII I '� 1 ��'p � Industrial-Partially vacant 4�-`- X41;1'0 r�'-'-` a v �.. �/ �\ 4 !�� --'^a/►Mq ,'! =Industrial-RedeveloPable ._...._n_.________i,L„,s, 1 , 'ire, f...' t � i\ �® i Tigard Urban Reserves tikbs\ a RT 2.0 Potential Employment Areas ,>,( • -, -*"-----. ''-- t .j sr�b 473 '1 / ^,. `-.MEfROSEST-- ' ... e .4111 \..)., ( / `mss immimi T samai ounr---i ,.• 4\ ---RRusr war u.... t'. t4��` RtunowsRo—��te; wo onn s.aw NIP g >MNREMbY1RA�� SIIrOWMNIID- $ 9DMTA/Ai- I.Inch.9.0011 reel 7n .0.06.44.1.01,10.01.0.06.44.1.01,10.01�/ �. °t� ur.00..nn aa......wave.... ? !/ '!}, wril .......____ + �.Y REE.REND RD SiPMMNM/R0 ♦��, r / -r If Tua\atin R ive^ ✓ del ! 404° , iJ ` Gtesnam M SU'IOWER// "r / .. T ! N6 NANM Oswego \. ',WRY RD �$ l�•l Whl tom fir' C.' l t�regati eRy E //r i N w Q," r bTF 207,TornioMicrosoft Corporation �--�� `+ '-""" SF✓7I/AI.ATIN RR I � i ST I -yam �,\ . / sp, RD MACKENZIE. WIEREAU RD-;-----oqor S $03,2/4.931110. 143¢20.tags- NGflaaR.GO.. > SW N1'BENDSY---t -. -- 1 6 Sett...119461 N.aa.n WM. 7 1'4 Development Constraints OAR 660, Division 9 allows for reduction of buildable area in a BLI based on site development constraints, as defined in OAR 660-009-0005(2): 'Development Constraints'means factors that temporarily or permanently limit or prevent the use of land for economic development. Development constraints include, but are not limited to, wetlands, environmentally sensitive areas such as habitat, environmental contamination, slope, topography, cultural and archeological resources, infrastructure deficiencies,parcel fragmentation, or natural hazard areas. Based on this definition, for the Tigard BLI, development constraints that render land undevelopable for employment uses were identified as land with any of the following characteristics:2 • Property within the 1%annual chance floodplain or floodway or 1996 flood inundation area; • Significant Wetlands identified in the Tigard Local Wetland Inventory, together with associated Vegetated Corridors as identified by Clean Water Services;3 • Areas with slopes of 10%or greater in areas with industrial zoning;or • Areas with slopes of 25% or greater in areas with commercial zoning (since commercial users generally don't need the large, flat sites that industrial users need). No deductions were made for areas in the National Wetland Inventory but not in the Local Wetland Inventory; for wetlands not identified as significant in the Local Wetland Inventory; for Significant Tree groves;or for Goal 5 significant Habitat Areas as the Tigard Community Development Code provides paths to development approval in those areas. The resulting site constraints on employment land are depicted in Figure 4. 2 The Conceptual Southwest Corridor Light Rail Alignment and associated service yard was graphically depicted as a constraint but not applied in this analysis due to its conceptual nature. 3 Vegetated Corridors not associated with significant wetlands have not been identified as constraints. R 1 SW AKiFRi RD •"b / _ _... • 4,,,$) Q Figure 4:1$ a/ City of Tigard Employment Land I .). / ` Development Constraints SWBROODNANST - Tigard,Oregon p —-sw iArtoRS FERRYRD.—. p sly'EMMEN RD Y, 1-Ili �1$ LEGEND t X sw NEMRn ) {r(' s' �1`'11� �/�� nom OW 1-1."'"r V Z t 0 4' Employment Areas ' .1.._ iiii FEMA Floodv and 1X I. ..--'"----*iir t ,, 4).i ; II' nood0laln - _ �1� 4., 19%Flood Immdatron ` f G �' "1 Siva,! Cel, fj'/ .lr Significant Wktland,and CWS !/ i f--`..,.Rr j sr �k40 , iA� ;' vegetative Buffer p S7 c \ Sega of 25%or greater ry `�, sw WAt �t .s i t 1 i \�� (Commercial 6 industrial Land) —..._-Att J i Slope of 10% rgreater 4. /rte'76 (industrial Land) --MELROSF Si 1 , 1 Q 2! ' 777�� _ Potential Light Rall q el ` S Z I .--1W84Ab15T--`T ---sws�OMe80A ----•t .. ._�..\..�,1) ARUM WRY _it t. s o 1,500 . 3.000 6.000rser 1 AFF-4110W$RD'-- -01. :le II BY-"' F,a, SW BONRA RD fJ f V • -_.ROMTA RD- -/\ 1,nrh-.t OM b:..I a. `...,-sWBIR1MODIRMS t h I ,OA. i 151 , a i,1 ,/ ,,,k. g n;' c-06,:,,,,,,„,,— i c _ w L a g I) 4 / �r 't� �i�°,} r'' r tri — 5 ~ .4,-.01.1,04 I SW afE RENO RD"/ ` _- _.. SW DURHAM RD � iL/� /' ;tt". r "i; w 2 �F 4 1 .+i � f .._---- -nOet • J. , .,rR,hdo Pf7R 1:1'1!1 •r .., '..,,., „ •FR','r". w ii�`� tOF;'FR /`�, ,:r es!. . 44914 City �-._ rR", r .,a' B�ONFS t]•_ -MAN IID 11111�� Tua\a R/V��Ri W FERRY F4 is '1,. ,n w tin WhAllu '2a ) It1�e92.4k3e6oR Corpontar j 7' SW NAun'M RD S Al? b i ". 292:io^?o•r r• 41 a .. ,y-C��, - - ...- .� MAOI{E N Z I E. . 1 w I/', .'JJ SW[SOWS RD,,,04,145 RD.- M1FBEAURD , 103.221.9560• 30]4281]1S- MCMM28.COM G F � r,� + e r7�1� _ sSSr NYBER6 S) - I _.... �. v.. 0 r ^" S1R^i'�' _:....«.,. (! roan,M,c.crnc ,r.,wrn aRwce 9 M M . Buildable Employment Lands The areas with constraints (Figure 4) were then deducted from the vacant, partially vacant, and redevelopable parcels (Figure 3)to determine the net buildable portions of vacant, partially vacant, and redevelopable parcels. The results of this analysis for Tigard City Limits are summarized in Table 2 and shown graphically in Figure 5. TABLE 2:TIGARD EMPLOYMENT BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTD1 • :as in City Limits ' Vacan ' `Portla14;Vacant Rerfevel©pa15 e "otal Number'. Net umber Net Number . umber • =" of Buildable of Buildable of 'i tis I` of •otentic Abbreviation Acreage Acreage Parcels Acreage Parcels Acreage Parcels creels Commercial Zones C-C 1 26.23 1 0 0 0 0 1 26.23 C-G 5 0.64 19 6.72 8 20.92 j 32 28.28 C-N 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 C-P _ 4 I 1.07 8 1.51 3 3.84 15 6.42 MU-CBD 3 0.21 23 4.84 4 5.50 30 10.55 MUC 3 2.40 2 1.38 4 _ 11.29 9 15.07 MUC-1 0 0 0 0 1 1.12 1 1.12 MUE 0 0 1 7.64 0 0 1 7.64 MUE-1 14 9.50 7 2.83 2 2.76 23 15.09 MUE-2 4 1.39 0 0 1 4.57 5 5.96 MUR-1* 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MUR-2* 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TMU 25 14.87 23 8.43 9 ( 23.52 57 46.82 Commercial subtotal 59 56.31 83 33.35 32 73.52 174 163.18 Industrial Zones I-H 0 ( 0 0 0 1 2.85 j 1 2.85 l-L 8 2.64 0 0 1 6.14 _I 9 8.78 I-P 8 18.30 6 ! 2.86 0 0 j 14 21.16 Industrial 16 20.94 6 2.86 2 8.99 24 32.79 subtotal City Summary Commercial 59 56.31 83 33.35 32 73.52 174 163.18 Zones Industrial 16 20.94 6 2.86 2 8.99 24 32.79 Zones Total 75 77.25 89 36.21 34 82.51 198195.97 Note * Only those specific tax lots identified in footnote 12 of Tigard Community Development Code Table 18.120.1. 1n 1 Figure S ` Washington City of Tigard I - Square Mall Buildable Employment Land _T`--' ___ ._ Tigard,Oregon i � S y� LEGEND _..�.• t' Tigard City Limits �e , 4 ki.. _ Commercial-Fully Vacant e ,, ' - --- WA Commercial-Partialy Vacant I 7 n ... .„.._. \ .. J ��,��. s'��\ Commercial-Redrs opable /J//// ` Y 'j./( �% — Industrial-Fully Vacant /j/ _ Mg Industrial-Partially Vacant �' I •�� I�.` �~�, "��' �� Industrial-Redevelooablc (/ r II I } Tigard Urban Reserves �,.,... -^ i, . , •"'',�� - RT 2.0 Potential f mpioyment Area _1�...-- 1 �'_' ,.1,11111/614:, Ell i r • i r / 1q \ I i .._._.. ` , r '---_ / • `-^' F 1 San I.ano v. , _ e."-^,...., i 1 ntt10,,,•••• j N • r a , 1.,'" u,w,or •••••:•••••••,..s•i, t.�_-. ,. \ „. t t. �� Tualatin Ri�P l 14. . ,>r':` _ tr''r~ t :, —esh. 1 /4 �' � N4 t • 0A•110.1 CiCity1 --- � VhIWRviIM 2024 Micro/tonCorporation �.` �rrLt.\ I _-_... _._.... 2027 TomTom _._..-_. I Li MACKENZIE. ---"""-^r501.220.9110• 903.1214.17V• MCKNZE.COM i .� , , 1 I °' ./ f •,20.e1014au.E M...ria rum. 11 • Analysis of the data in Table 2 reveals the following: • The commercial zones have 56.31 acres (73%) of vacant buildable land and the industrial zones have 20.94 acres (27%) of vacant buildable land, for a total of approximately 77.25 net acres of vacant buildable land. • The commercial zones have 33.35 acres(92%) of partially vacant buildable land and the industrial zones have 2.86 acres (8%) of partially vacant buildable land, for a total of approximately 36.21 net acres of partially vacant buildable land. • The commercial zones have 73.52 acres (89%)of redevelopable buildable land and the industrial zones have 8.99 acres (11%) of redevelopable buildable land, for a total of approximately 82.51 net acres of redevelopable buildable land. • In total,the commercial zones have 163.18 acres(83%) of buildable land and the industrial zones have 32.79 acres(17%)of buildable land,for a total of approximately 195.97 net acres of buildable land. For those sites identified as redevelopable, Mackenzie prepared a high-level estimate of the cost to prepare the site for further development (e.g., building demolition, limited site grading, paving, landscaping, and on-site utilities), utilizing an average cost of$15 to$20 per square foot, excluding costs of a building itself since those costs vary greatly depending on usage, construction type, etc. Based on an assumption that buildings occupy an average of 40%of the buildable land, the resulting site preparation cost estimates are denoted in Table 3, TABLE 3: REDEVELOPABLE LAND COST ESTIMATES k rosin Cit .tt its Number of Potential Zone Abbreviation Site Preparation Parcels Acreage Cost Estimate Commercial Zones C-C 0 _ 0 0 C-G 8 20.92 $8.2-10.9 million C-N 0 0 0 C-P 3 3.84 $1.5-2.0 million MU-CBD 4 5.50 $2.2-2.9 million MUC 4 11.29 $4.4-5.9 million MUC-1 1 1.12 $0.4-0.6 million MUE 0 0 0 MUE-1 2 2.76 $1.1-1.4 million MUE-2 1 4.57 $1.8-2.4 million MUR-1* 0 0 0 MUR-2* 0 0 0 TMU 9 23.52 $9.2-12.3 million Commercial _ subtotal 32 73.52 $28.8-38.4 million a Industrial Zones I-I-I 1 2.85 $1.1-1.5 million I-L 1 6.14 $2.4-3.2 million I-P 0 0 0 Industrial subtotal 2 8.99 $3.5-4.7 million City Summary Commercial Zones 32 73.52 $28.8-38.4 million Industrial Zones 2 8.99 $3.5-4.7 million Total 34 82.51 $32.3-43.1 million Note * Only those specific tax lots identified in footnote 12 of Tigard Community Development Code Table 18.120.1. Table 4 identifies the potential employment area within the Tigard Urban Reserves, as projected in the City's April 2021 River Terrace 2.0 Concept Plan.These areas are also depicted in Figure 5. '} 1, i ii Urba Vacant partially- migdevelopabl . To 0 umber Ne umber Net mber Net Number � of Buildable ' of Buildable W. of Buildable of Potential Parcels Acreage Parcels Acreage Parcels Acreage Parcels Acreage River Terrace 7 30 0 0 0 0 7 30 Westt River Terrace 2 5 0 0 0 0 2 5 Southt Urban �. _ Reserve 9 35 1 0 0 0 0 9 35 subtotal — Note t Only those areas identified for employment in the City's April 2021 River Terrace 2.0 Concept Plan As the urban reserves are not within the Metro UGB,the City can not rely upon these lands to satisfy their employment land needs at this time. 13 M M . Buildable Employment Lands Parcel Sizes Based on the buildable parcels in City Limits shown in Figure 5 and tabulated in Table 2, Mackenzie has sorted the net buildable land supply by parcel size for each zone, the results of which are in Table 5. As noted in the table,available commercial sites largely fall into the 0 to 0.99 acre category,while available industrial sites lar:ely fall into a mix of the 0 to 0.99 acre and 1 to 4.99 acre categories. TABLE TIGARDEMP,QY ; ; 2UILDA)., ,, ksIe .�_( y '1RC , = Sr-, b City Zone Oto ' ,1 to 5 to 1 10 to 20 to @oto ' , 0 to ,.` 1001=° bbreviation 0.99 4.99- 9.99 - 29.99 29.99 '9.99 '9.9.9 acres acres ' acres - - acres acres acres -acres s cres a Commercial Zones C-C - - - - 1 - • - 1 C-G 24 7 1 - - - - - 32 C-N - I - - - - - - - - C-P 8 I 4 3 - - - - - 15 MU-CBD 28 2 - 30 MUC 4 5 - - - - - - 9 MUC-1 - 1 - - - 1 MUE - - 1 - - - Li- MUE-1 1 21 2 - - - - - 23 MUE-2 3 I 2 - - - - - 5 MUR-1* - - - I - - - -- MUR-2* - - - - - - i TMU 45 11 1 - - - 57 Commercial 1 133 34 6 - 1 subtotal - - 174 industrial I-H - 1 � - - -_____t_ - - 1 IL 8 1 - - 9 -P ! 13 1 - - - - - 14 Industrial 21 2 I 1 subtotal 24 City Total 154 36 I 7 I - 1 - l - 198 Notes * Only those specific tax lots identified in footnote 12 of Tigard Community Development Code Table 18.120.1. 14 III. SITE SUITABILITY ANALYSIS To supplement Section II,which analyzed the quantity of building employment lands in the City and in its urban reserves,this section provides information on the types of sites that are most likely to be attractive for development. The relative attractiveness of sites varies by user type, so information is provided for three broad user categories identified by Johnson Economics:retail, office park, and industrial. Based on the preferred site characteristics for each of the three categories, Mackenzie performed a qualitative assessment of the City's available vacant, partially vacant, and redevelopable land using available data to evaluate whether the available land supply satisfies some or all of the preferred factors. Some factors are not able to be analyzed as part of this project due to data limitations (e.g., neither the City nor Mackenzie have access to geographic data sets regarding locations or capacity of franchise utilities such as power,gas, or telecommunications). Other factors were examined on a qualitative level (e.g., utility sizes for industrial users) but are not mapped as such analysis and display is beyond the scope of the project. In the tables below, some of the factors utilize the word "competitive." This term does not denote an absolute standard which cannot be disregarded, but rather suggests that given the choice between two equal sites, if one of them meets the competitive factor and one does not, a developer will likely select the site that satisfies the competitive factor. Site Characteristics Retail Retail Preferred Site Characteristics Retail users fall into multiple subcategories, including the following: • Regional malls • Lifestyle centers • Power centers • Neighborhood centers • Downtown areas Table 6 identifies preferred site characteristics for each of these subcategories. However, it should be noted that retailers' site selection is also based on factors outside the site itself, such as the area population, income levels of nearby residents, and the location of competitors. 15 I TABLE 6:RETAIL PREFERRED SITE CHARACTERISTICS Lifestyle` Neighborhood ©ov✓ntoVal 'lona!Malls - 'ower eater's ,enter -Len ga, : Are•s Clusters of large well-known Convenience- retailers such as oriented, electronics typically Walkable areas Example or Washington Old Mill District stories,arts and consisting of a with a variety of description Square in Bend craft stores, grocer or retailers office supply pharmacy and stores, or home associated goods stores smaller retailers Competitive site 40- 100 10-40 25-80 3-5 Varies acreage Proximity to Required Required Required Preferred Not Required Arterial/Collector Access to signalized Required Preferred Preferred Preferred Not Required intersection Visibility/street Required Required Required Required Preferred presence On-site parking Required Required Required Required i Not Required Source:Mackenzie, International Council of Shopping Centers Mackenzie utilized these characteristics to evaluate the available retail commercial sites identified in Section II. Retail Suitability Assessment • Roughly 25%of the buildable commercial land is between 1 and 5 acres, while only about 6%of buildable commercial area is above 5 acres. • In the CBD, there are a few redevelopable areas which may have competitive site acreage. The advantage with redevelopable land in the CBD is that on-site parking may not be necessary. Office Office Park Preferred Site Characteristics Two subcategories of office parks include the following: • Business/Administrative Services • Speculative Office Park Table 7 identifies preferred characteristics for each of these subcategories, based on Business Oregon's Industrial Development Competitiveness Matrix included in Appendix A. In general terms, the requirements for a speculative development are stricter than for a known user since the developer of a speculative project needs to ensure that the site can accommodate a variety of users with varying demands. M OFFICE PARK PREFERRED SIT r 'ACTERISTICS Business/ : Administrative speculative Office, rr Competitive site 5- 15+ 5-20 acreage Competitive 0- 12% 0-7% maximum slope Minimum water 4" -6" 8"-10" service diameter Minimum sanitary sewer 6"-8" 8"- 10" service diameter Preferred natural gas service 2" 4" diameter Minimum electrical service 0.5 MW 0.5-1 MW demand (megawatts) Fiber optic communications Required Required Source:Mackenzie, Business Oregon Industrial Development Competitive Matrix Office Park Suitability Assessment • There are few contiguous parcels under common ownership,which could hamper the opportunity for developers to assemble multiple smaller parcels into larger development sites. ■ There are a handful parcels in commercially or Industrial Park (I-P) zoned areas which have acreage between 5 and 15 acres. Most of these parcels have adequate access to suitable water and sewer connections while not exceeding a maximum 10%slope. Industrial Industrial Preferred Site Characteristics The following industrial subcategories are representative of user types which may be attracted to the City of Tigard given its location in the Metro region: • Heavy Industrial/Manufacturing • Food Processing • Advanced Manufacturing and Assembly ■ General Manufacturing • Industrial Business Park and Research &Development Campus • Local Warehouse/Distribution Table 8 identifies preferred characteristics for each of these subcategories, based on Business Oregon's Industrial Development Competitiveness Matrix included in Appendix A. 17 BLE t Dti RIJ5LPREFERKD Sl CFIARACTERISTiC,5 - ndustria Heavy Food Advanced " General Business Local Factor Industrial) �_��, Manufacturing -'park and Warehouse/ Processing Manufacturing Manufacturing and Assembly R&D Distribution Ca mpus Competitive site � � acrea a 10 - 100+ 5 -25+ 5-25+ 5- 15+ 20- 100+ 10-25+ g — - 4 - Competitive 7% o' } maximum slope 0-5% 0-5% 0- 0-5% 0-7% 0-5% Railroad Access Preferred Preferred Not Required Preferred Preferred I Preferred Minimum water 8"- 12" 12"-16" 8"- 12" 6" - 10" 8"- 12" 4"-6" service diameter Minimum sanitary sewer 6"-8" 10"-12" 10"-12" 6" -8" 10"-12" 4" service diameter Preferred natural '-- - ----- -------_____ gas service 4"-6" 4" 6" 4" 6" 2" diameter Minimum electrical service ' demand 2 MW 2-6 MW 1 MW 0.5 MW 0.5 MW I 1 MW (megawatts) Fiber optic Preferred Preferred Required Preferred Required Preferred communications Source:Mackenzie, Business Oregon Industrial Development Competitive Matrix Industrial Suitability Assessment ■ Some of the buildable industrial land has slopes between 10 and 25%,which could limit the types of development that occur on those sites(e.g.,these sites could accommodate a multi-story office building but not typical industrial users that need large,flat sites for single-level floor plates). ■ Water, sanitary sewer, and storm drainage pipes generally appear adequate for additional industrial development(note that there may be a need for system-wide improvements identified in utility master plans, but analysis of those plans is beyond the scope of this project). • In the industrial zones(I-P, I-L,and I-H)there are no sites exceeding 10 acres,but there are 6 sites between 5 and 10 acres which is the lower end of competitive acreage for Food Processing, Advanced Manufacturing and Assembly and General Manufacturing as noted in Table 8. Site Suitability Observations While the above analysis compares Tigard's buildable employment lands to preferred site characteristics for retail, office park, and industrial uses, Mackenzie has also performed a more qualitative assessment of allowable uses and standards specified in the Community Development Code. Commentary from this evaluation is outlined below. 10 Commercial Based on the range of allowable commercial use categories, the C-G and MU-CBD zones would be most attractive to commercial developers, while C-N, C-C, MUR-1 and MUR-2 would be least attractive to traditional commercial developers(though MUR-1 and MUR-2 would retain some attractiveness for mixed use developers).The other commercial zones(C-P, MUE, MUC-1, MUC,MUE-1, MUE-2,TMU)are roughly equivalent in the number of uses they allow,and fall within the middle of the range.4 Industrial The I-H zone is the most permissive for industrial uses, while the I-P zone is the most restrictive. As a result, the I-H zone may be the most attractive to speculative industrial developers, while the I-P zone would be the least attractive, particularly due to its prohibition on General Industrial and Warehouse/Freight Movement uses.By contrast,for industrial users that may not wish to be located near heavy industrial uses, then the I-P and I-L zones may be more attractive. The I-P zone would also be attractive to commercial users since it allows office,entertainment,and some retail uses. Developer Comments The following comments represent feedback typical of commercial and industrial clients as provided to Mackenzie in the course of work throughout the region. • Parking standards Developers would prefer more flexibility on setting parking ratios based on their understanding of market dynamics, rather than tied to strict standards detailed in the Community Development Code.Some users may wish to provide fewer spaces than the minimum allowable ratio and other users may wish to provide more spaces than the maximum allowable ratio. While the maximum ratios have been established pursuant to Metro's Regional Transportation Functional Plan, they have the side effect of making sites within Metro boundaries less attractive to some users compared to sites outside Metro. ■ Minimum landscape percentage Metro area jurisdictions typically specify minimum landscape areas of 15% of the site for commercial and industrial zones. Tigard largely aligns with that trend, with a few exceptions, namely the I-P zone which requires 25%landscaping(with the option for 20%if certain conditions are met)and the MUE, MUE-2, MUR-1, and MUR-2 zones which require 20% landscaping.5 Some developers may choose to locate elsewhere rather than purchase and develop sites requiring over 15%landscaping. • Urban forestry and canopy requirements 4 Given the size of the community,having thirteen separate commercial zones may be more than needed and would certainly complicate site selectors'ability to narrow in on specific zones to target for development. 5 For the purposes of discussion,this report does not detail those plan districts which may allow lower landscape percentages. 19 Tigard's urban forestry standards demonstrate a level of commitment to providing and maintaining the urban forest, as recognized by the Arbor Day Foundation for 20 years with the designation of Tigard as a Tree City USA community. However, as a result of stricter canopy standards(e.g.30%parking lot coverage,33%site coverage for most employment zones,and 25% site coverage for MU-CBD,MUC-1, I-L,and I-H zones)some industrial developers may avoid Tigard sites due to concerns about the cost of installing trees or concerns that the required tree canopy will interfere with vehicle movement(especially for large trucks). Sites Most Likely to Advance the Economic Development Objectives Finally, in general terms, the types of sites most likely to advance the study's Economic Development Objectives are those that fall within several general categories: ■ Sites with flexible development standards with respect to allowable uses, parking ratios, and landscape minimum area; • Sites located in areas with fully-improved transportation facilities and public utilities that do not require significant investments by the developer; ■ Sites with proximity to transit and existing public amenities that can draw employees;or ■ Sites within reasonable distance of housing to increase transportation options for employees. Furthermore, to the extent that the City can provide incentives rather than additional development regulations,those approaches are more likely to be well-received by developers and job creators. n APPENDIX A BUSINESS OREGON INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT COMPETITIVENESS MATRIX Source: Mackenzie, Business Oregon STATE OF OREGON-Infrastructure Finance Authority . .A Industrial Development Competitiveness Matrix Ines„ ,n an. Aerhoi0y Production Manubduelrs ,vahme•+dned rrla0%ulctte%g USW/Res Industrial WafelOtehe&estrmWton Spedeaad and A.csOmWy _.n__ _ PROFILE A P C • O E F- • . 6 1 N / / ' L .. �,.,, VNIWINI I R f feH17 Md%trgl: Ndl-10,30! . 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INA Af'WC°kl71C AIS-4648 4. Workshop Meeting Meeting Date: 07/20/2021 Length (in minutes): 30 Minutes Agenda Title: Tigard GOLD — Government Organizing and Leadership Development Update Submitted By: Sean Farrelly, Community Development Item Type: Update, Discussion, Direct Staff Meeting Type: Council Workshop Mtg. Public Hearing: No Publication Date: Information ISSUE Report and presentation from the inaugural Tigard GOLD (Government Organizing & Leadership Development) cohort. STAFF RECOMMENDATION / ACTION REQUEST Council is requested to hear the testimony of Tigard GOLD cohort members and to congratulate them on their graduation. KEY FACTS AND INFORMATION SUMMARY The Tigard Government and Organizing Leadership Development (Tigard GOLD) program is built to educate and uplift emerging leaders of color in the community. The program was developed in partnership with city staff and Unite Oregon, a community-based organization that represents people of color, immigrants and refugees, and people experiencing poverty. For the past year, the City has worked with Unite Oregon on COVID outreach to Tigard immigrant and BIPOC communities; connecting people with housing emergency assistance; and holding three Zoom meetings on topics crowd-sourced by the community, including renters rights, emergency preparedness, and a community conversation with the Chief of Police. Tigard GOLD had eight members from a variety of backgrounds including immigrants, refugees, and U.S. citizens from Iraq, Mexico, Somali and Turkish heritages. During the Tigard GOLD program, participants became subject-matter literate on a range of policy issues from housing and transportation to police accountability. Participants learned about local government and about how to become strong community advocates. Program graduates will deliver testimony to Council at the July 20 meeting. To reduce barriers to participation, simultaneous translation, interpretation, and stipends were provided. Program graduates will be prepared to use their new skills and affect policy change through participation on city boards and commissions, and through continued advocacy with ongoing community issues. The program was held virtually on six Saturday mornings between April and June 2021. All cohort sessions were held in both English and Spanish. At the training sessions, the cohort heard from the Unite Oregon team, Tigard community members, local experts and city teammates including Mayor Snider, Chief McAlpine, Kent Wyatt, Lauren Scott, Marissa Grass, Stefanie Kouremetis, Carla Staedter,Jeanne Peloquin, Sean Farrelly and Mary Ayala. Topics covered included: community-based leadership, immigration, virtual library tour, intro to city government, leaders in our community panel discussion, civic engagement 101, Parks Master Plan, tour of Dirksen Nature Park, eviction mortarium and tenant rights, COVID rights and benefits, systems of oppression, public safety, careers with the City, and public testimony practice and role playing. Tigard GOLD 2021 Graduates 1. Haydar Mohammad 2. Barrak Al Shaban 3. Carmen Garnica 4. Ghassan Zamil 5. Aadil Mohamed 6. Salma Julamiran 7. Berta Ojeda 8. Salahuddin Alhawani The GOLD cohort was a successful pilot that city staff will continue to explore as part of a strategic approach to broaden access, create opportunities, and eliminate barriers to participation. As staff develops a strategic city-wide communications plan that includes best practices for outreach and engagement, we anticipate having further conversations with organizations such as Unite Oregon and others as we partner to make Tigard an even more equitable and accessible city. OTHER ALTERNATIVES Not applicable COUNCIL GOALS, POLICIES, APPROVED MASTER PLANS 2021-2023 City Council Goals Community Promise Equity: We will ensure just and fair inclusion where all can participate, prosper, and reach their full potential. City of Tigard Strategic Plan 2020-2025 Vision: an equitable community that is walkable, healthy, and accessible for everyone Strategic Priority 1: Set the standard for excellence in public service and customer experience. Objective 1.1: Be a high performing workplace with seamless service delivery. Action B: Hire a workforce to reflect the racial and ethnic demographics of the community. Objective 1.3: Offer exemplary customer experience. Action A: Expand and integrate organizational knowledge about equity and inclusion into customer service. Objective 1.4: Enhance community awareness and engagement with City activities and services. Action C: Build authentic relationships and partnerships through city initiatives. DATES OF PREVIOUS COUNCIL CONSIDERATION This is the first time the topic will be presented to Council. AIS-4668 5. Workshop Meeting Meeting Date: 07/20/2021 Length (in minutes): 20 Minutes Agenda Title: Receive Update on Board & Committee Recruitment and Selection Process Prepared For: Nicole Hendrix, City Management Submitted By: Nicole Hendrix, City Management Item Type: Update, Discussion, Direct Staff Meeting Type: Council Business Meeting - Main Public Hearing: No Publication Date: Information ISSUE Tigard's boards and committees are foundational to informing the development of the city's programs, services, and policies. The City of Tigard has eleven active boards and committees that community members serve on, each of which have their own varied approaches to recruitment efforts, selection process, and organizational structure. This varied approach can result in inconsistent experiences for community members who apply to serve on Tigard's boards and committees. In alignment with Tigard's citywide strategic plan values of being accessible and equitable, the Tigard team has examined these approaches and developed process improvements to create increased access for community members to serve, foster diversity of thought and backgrounds, and organize recruitment responsibilities. Implementing a consistent approach to these processes can help fulfill Tigard's Community Promise to, "ensure just and fair inclusion where all can participate, prosper, and reach their full potential." STAFF RECOMMENDATION / ACTION REQUEST Receive update on proposed changes and process improvements to board and committee recruitment and selection practices and provide feedback. KEY FACTS AND INFORMATION SUMMARY What We've Learned The proposed board and committee updates outlined in the section below were reviewed and supported by the city's leadership team in Spring 2021. The proposed updates were tested in May and June of 2021 during the recruitment for Committee for Community Engagement and Library Board members. In a post-interview experience survey, all applicants indicated that the application and interview process was a "positive experience" and was easy to navigate. Lastly, a step-by-step process outlining the roles and responsibilities of team liaisons, council liaisons, and city management was reviewed and refined by all board and committee team liaisons. An overview of those roles and responsibilities can be found in Attachment A. Team liaisons shared their support for an established process to ensure board and committee processes are equitable and accessible. How We Are Responding To create an equitable and accessible process for community members to participate in, an overview of proposed improvements to the recruitment, selection, and structure of boards and committees are outlined below. These processes will continue to be refined and future improvements to onboarding of appointed members will be explored. Recruitment & Selection Improvements •Updated application (Attachment B) that is open for community members to apply throughout the year. •Utilize NeoGov as a central database to maintain records, allows for more frequent communication with applicants, allows applicants to self-schedule interviews, and produces reports such as for applicant demographics. •Interview questions will be sent to interviewees in advance of interview including one question related to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion. •Score sheets will be used by interview panelists to help determine selection of candidates. •Applicants will receive a post-interview experience survey to anonymously share their experience and potential areas for improvement in the process. Structure Improvements •Align board member terms to end December 31. •Interview panels will have no more than three panelists. •Where possible, revise Municipal Code to have only governing language be the board's Bylaws. •Team liaisons provide language access plan to ensure access to participating in boards and committees as a non-English speaker. OTHER ALTERNATIVES Option 1: Support proposed improvements to implement for Fall 2021 board and committee recruitment. Option 2: Suggest alternatives to the proposed board and committee improvements. Option 3: Suggest to not move forward with proposed updates for Fall 2021 recruitment. COUNCIL GOALS, POLICIES, APPROVED MASTER PLANS Strategic Vision: Tigard: An equitable community that is walkable, healthy, and accessible for everyone. Strategic Plan Priority 1: Set the standard for excellence in public service and customer experience. Community Promise: Equity, Engagement, and Excellence DATES OF PREVIOUS COUNCIL CONSIDERATION N/A Attachments Attachment A Board Recruitment Responsibilities Overview Attachment B Board & Committee Application BOARD £t COMMITTEE RECRUITMENT VO UNTEER Rotes and Responsibilities Overview TIGARD RECRUITMENT APPLICATIONS INTERVIEWS SELECTION • Notify CM of board • Review applications for • Send CM date, length,and • Create City Council AIS TEAM opening, send position eligibility (residency, times for interviews. for appointments. LIAISON information, &web terms, etc.) in NeoGov. • Coordinate with Council • Notify applicants of updates. • Coordinate with Council Liaison to develop interview appointments. • Organize recruitment Liaison on who moves to questions. Place those into • Send CM final efforts beyond main interview. scoresheet &send to panel. appointees info for recruitment channels. • Communicate to CM who • Send calendar invite & records&roster. moves to interview. question memo to applicants. , • Keep application updated. • Route applications to Team • Provide templates for • Send applicants post- ' • Submit D&C request for Liaisons. question memo and scoring. interview survey. MANAGEMENT recruitment image and main • Ensure all applications are • Coordinate NeoGov self • Send survey results to LIAISON social media content. stored in NeoGov. scheduling for applicants. Team Liaison. • Update board webpage & • Communicate with • Sends Team Liaison schedule • Update board £r develop Cityscape content. applicants. and applicant contact info. committee roster. COUNCIL • Promote opportunity to • Review applications and • Provide input on interview • Complete score sheet. community members. share input with Team date(s) and questions. • Coordinate with LIAISON Liaison. • Serve on interview panel. interview panel to determine appointments. !Pi Ill City of Tigard TIGARD Board & Committee Application These groups are comprised of volunteers that advise City Council and assist in forming policy. The City of Tigard welcomes people of all backgrounds and experience. Thank you for your interest. Please select the Board(s) and Committee(s)you are interested in. If you would like to apply for more than one,rank your choices numerically starting with one (1 = Most Interested). ❑ Audit Committee ❑ Town Center Advisory Committee Responsible for managing the audit contract with the Makes recommendations on urban renewal city's outside audit firm and overseeing the city's policy,budget and implementation to improve internal control management. and support activity on Tigard's urban renewal districts. ❑ Budget Committee ❑ Youth Advisory Council Reviews and makes recommendations on the City A student(6th-12th grades only)volunteer Manager's proposed budget.Consists of City group whose mission is to empower,improve, Councilors,Mayor,and community members. and connect the lives of Tigard youth. ❑ Committee for Community Engagement ❑ Water Advisory Board Provides oversight,accountability and policy direction Advise City Council and staff to operate a fully on community engagement activities. Fosters broad integrated water system for current and future participation and community relationships. users within the Tigard Water Service Area. ❑ Planning Commission ❑ Transportation Advisory Committee Assists City Council to develop,maintain,update and Advises City Council and staff in implementing implement the Tigard Comprehensive Plan and Tigard's Complete Streets Policy.Provides reviews and acts on community development projects community feedback,advice and awareness of and code provisions delegated to the Commission. transportation issues affecting Tigard. ❑ Library Board ❑ Parks & Recreation Advisory Board Responsible for advising the City Manager and City Advises and advocates for parks and recreation Council about library policies,budget,facilities and in a growing Tigard. other needs of the community to provide responsive library services. Full Name: Date: Residential Address: Mailing(if different): Phone: Email: Best way to communicate: Occupation: Have you previously served on a Board or Committee? If yes,which one(s) and how long? See other side for additional questions. What interests you about the board(s) or committee(s)you've applied for? How do your experiences align with this opportunity? What perspectives do you hope to contribute to the conversation? If appointed,how will you inform and engage your networks in committee/board activities? Anything else you would like us to know? What kind of support would make it easier for you to participate? How did you hear about this opportunity? (Circle all that apply) Social Media Cityscape Newsletter Web Search Website Friend City Employee Other: More about you (Optional): Age: Q U NTEER Gender Pronouns: (� p Race and/or Ethnicity: TI`�'A n D Submit completed application: Mail: City of Tigard, City Management, 13125 SW Hall Blvd.,Tigard, OR 97223 Email: Nicole Hendrix, nicoleh@tigard-or.gov SUPPLEMENTAL PACKET FOR 7- 20- ao a/ (DATE OF MEETING) VO?UNTEER TIGARD Board & Committee Process Updates CITY COUNCIL JULY 20, 2021 Council Request Receive update on proposed changes to board and 0 committee recruitment, selection and structure practices and provide feedback. Purpose Improve board and committee recruitment, selection, and structure to: ❖ Increase access for community participation, -- Foster diversity, and :• Provide excellent service by identifying team member roles and responsibilities. Guiding Principles Ensure just and fair inclusion where all can participate, prosper, and reach their full potential (Community Promise - Equity). Create processes and coordinate communication to ensure consistent customer experience across service areas (Strategic Plan Objective 1. 1, Action E). Path_ I mprove-m-e-nt 4 Sep 2020-Present 9 May 2021 9July 2021 9 Sept 2021 & Beyond 1 Information gathering. I Test process with CCE and ' City Council review. I Fall recruitment begins. Fall recruitment review. 1 Library Board. � Align term end dates when 1 Future process 1 i Leadership Team review. 1 possible. i improvements—onboarding, governing docs, etc. -i . a . a . a Update application. Set up NeoGov system. i Team liaison review. � I I I I Set up trial run of new I Adjust proposed process I Training and preparation for process. 1 based on input. ; Fall recruitment. April 2021 6 June 2021 O August 2021 Recruitment & Selection Improvements Recruitment and Selection ❖ Updated application that identifies support needs to fully participate ❖ Utilize NeoGov to maintain records, coordinate communication and scheduling, and reporting ❖ Coordinate recruitment efforts across all boards and committees 0 0 ❖ Limit interview panel size to three (' '1 rm ❖ Interview questions sent in advance ❖ Utilize interview scoresheets4 ❖ Post-interview applicant experience survey Structure I prove Structure ❖ Align board and committee term end dates ❖ Applications are open to apply year-round ❖ Routine web updates with consistent information ❖ Develop language access plan ❖ Follow a process and best practices document ❖ Outline roles & responsibilities of team liaisons, city management team, and council liaisons Council Request Receive update on proposed changes to board and committee recruitment, selection and structure practices and provide feedback. Option 1: Support proposed improvements to implement for Fall 2021 board and committee recruitment. Option 2: Suggest alternatives to the proposed board and committee improvements. Option 3: Suggest to not move forward with proposed updates for Fall 2021 recruitment. AIS-4679 6. Workshop Meeting Meeting Date: 07/20/2021 Length (in minutes): 10 Minutes Agenda Title: Consider a Resolution to Extend Parks and Recreation Advisory Board Member Terms Prepared For: Rick Gruen, Public Works Submitted By: Marissa Grass, Public Works Item Type: Resolution Meeting Type: Council Workshop Mtg. Public Hearing: No Publication Date: Information ISSUE The City of Tigard has the opportunity to extend expiring Parks & Recreation Advisory Board (PRAB) terms to December 31, 2021. STAFF RECOMMENDATION / ACTION REQUEST Staff recommends extending the terms of four expiring board members to December 31, 2021 to align the terms from a June expiration to a December expiration and allow the PRAB to have quorum moving forward. KEY FACTS AND INFORMATION SUMMARY The PRAB has four members whose terms expired June 30, 2021. With the City's desire to transition board and committees from a June expiration date to a December expiration date, a transition period is required for the four PRAB members. These extensions are part of a more comprehensive process for all boards and committees to align and end December 31. OTHER ALTERNATIVES The council could choose to not grant a temporary extension of the PRAB member's terms and commence a formal recuitment process to fill the four positions. COUNCIL GOALS, POLICIES, APPROVED MASTER PLANS DATES OF PREVIOUS COUNCIL CONSIDERATION Council has not been briefed previously on this issue. Attachments Resolution PRAB Term Extensions CITY OF TIGARD, OREGON TIGARD CITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION NO. 21- A RESOLUTION TO EXPEND THE TERMS OF CLAUDIA CIOBANU AND BEN HOLMES AS VOTING MEMBERS AND DARLENE DICK AND NATALIE NEWGARD AS ALIERNAIL MEMBERS OF THE PARKS AND RECREATION ADVISORY BOARD WHEREAS, Tigard City Council established the Park and Recreation Advisory Board to advise Tigard City Council and the Public Works Director on park and recreation matters;and WHEREAS, the terms of these Parks and Recreation Advisory Board Members expire on June 30, 2021; and WHEREAS, Tigard City Council desires that Board and Commission members terms shall transition from a June expiration date to a December expiration date, and a transition period is required for the Parks and Recreations Advisory Board members. NOW,THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the Tigard City Council that: SECTION 1: The terms of Claudia Ciobanu and Ben Holmes, as voting members, and Darlene Dick and Natalie Newgard, as alternate members, are hereby extended to December 30, 2021 as members of the Park and Recreation Advisory Board. SECTION : This resolution is effective immediately upon passage. PASSED: This day of ,2021. Mayor- City of Tigard ATTEST: City Recorder- City of Tigard RESOLUTION NO. 21- Page 1 AIS-4681 7. Workshop Meeting Meeting Date: 07/20/2021 Length (in minutes): 5 Minutes Agenda Title: Consider Resolution Supporting Tigard Electric Vehicle (EV) Strategy TGM Grant Application Prepared For: Dave Roth, Community Development Submitted By: Dave Roth, Community Development Item Type: Resolution Meeting Type: Council Workshop Mtg. Public Hearing: No Publication Date: Information ISSUE A resolution in support of a 2021 Transportation and Growth Management (TGM) Program integrated transportation and land use planning grant to support the creation of an Electric Vehicle (EV) Strategy for the City of Tigard. STAFF RECOMMENDATION / ACTION REQUEST The team recommends Council approve submittal of an application for a 2021 TGM transportation and land use planning grant from the Oregon TGM program. KEY FACTS AND INFORMATION SUMMARY The Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) and Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) annually offer Transportation and Growth Management (TGM) program grants to jurisdictions for integrated land use and transportation planning. A primary goal of these grants is to help local jurisdictions develop plans and implementing measures that encourage livable, affordable, and accessible community for all ages and incomes; and promote compact, mixed-use, walkable development to increase walking, biking, and transit. Community Development staff are seeking to apply for up to $150,000 in grant funding through the TGM program to develop an Electric Vehicle (EV) Strategy that will support the transition to an electrified transportation system. Tigard's EV Strategy will support local, regional, and statewide goals for de-carbonizing and reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) associate with personal, commercial, and business travel to, from, and within Tigard. The project will investigate and inform implementation actions including local policy decisions that can be made within the next five years to encourage growth in the EV and small electric vehicle (SEV) market in Tigard. The project will make specific recommendations to amend several of Tigard's adopted plans, development and building codes, and engineering design standards to support the EV and SEV transition. The project and plan will investigate the following topic areas: •Access and equity issues associated with a transition to EV's •EV market analysis for personal vehicles, fleets, shared mobility, transit, and ride-hailing services •Deployment of charging infrastructure •SEV infrastructure needs • Outreach, engagement, and media needs •Financial implications, requirements, and incentives OTHER ALTERNATIVES Council may choose not to approve submittal of an application for a 2021 TGM Planning Grant from DLCD and ODOT. COUNCIL GOALS, POLICIES, APPROVED MASTER PLANS •2021 Council Goal 3: Develop and implement a bold community resiliency plan •2020-2025 Strategic Plan Vision: Tigard: An equitable community that is walkable, healthy, and accessible for everyone. •2020-2025 Strategic Plan Objective 3.1: Pursue land development that maximizes public health benefits while increasing connection between people and community destinations. •2020-2025 Strategic Plan Objective 3.5: Plan and create in a manner that reduces climate impacts to the maximum extent practicable, especially for those most vulnerable. •Tigard Complete Streets Policy Vision: Tigard is a vibrant and healthy community where people of all ages and abilities can travel safely, efficiently, and comfortably on a well-connected and optimized multi- modal network of roads, trails, and paths. •Transportation System Plan (TSP) Goal 1: Develop mutually supportive land use and transportation plans to enhance the livability of the community. •Transportation System Plan (TSP) Goal 3: Provide an accessible multi-modal transportation system that meets the mobility needs of the community. DATES OF PREVIOUS COUNCIL CONSIDERATION N/A Attachments TGM Grant EV Strategy Resolution CITY OF TIGARD, OREGON TIGARD CITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION NO. 21- A RESOLUTION OF SUPPORT FOR A TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE PLANNING GRANT FROM THE OREGON TRANSPORTATION AND GROWTH MANAGEMENT (FGM) PROGRAM TO PREPARE AN ELECTRIC VEHICLE (EV) STRATEGY FOR THE CITY OF TIGARD. WHEREAS, the TGM program periodically offers Transportation and Land Use Planning grants to communities undertaking planning work; and WHEREAS, the City of Tigard has a responsibility to plan, design, operate, and maintain transportation facilities that serve all users equitably; and WHEREAS,the transportation sector is responsible for nearly 40%of Oregon's greenhouse gas emissions;and WHEREAS, Goal 3 of the adopted 2021-2022 Tigard City Council Goals calls for the development and implementation of a"bold community resiliency plan" that achieves carbon neutrality by the year 2035; and WHEREAS, electrification of the transportation system is a key strategy to reduce local,regional, and statewide greenhouse gas emissions; and NOW,THEREFORE,BE IT RESOLVED by the Tigard City Council that: SECTION 1: Council approves submittal of an application for a 2021 Transportation and Land Use Planning grant from the TGM Program. SECTION 2: This Resolution is effective immediately upon passage. PASSED: This day of 2021. Mayor-City of Tigard A 1"1'EST: City Recorder-City of Tigard RESOLUTION NO. 21- Page 1